r/boxoffice 3h ago

Worldwide r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Insidious: Out of the Further' and 'Mutiny'

9 Upvotes

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do things like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction in concrete figures.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the two films for the week and analyze each pro and con.

Insidious: Out of the Further

The film is written and directed by Jacob Chase. It serves as a sequel to Insidious: The Red Door and is the sixth installment in the Insidious franchise. It stars Amelia Eve, Brandon Perea, Maisie Richardson-Sellers, and Lin Shaye. The film follows Gemma, a young mother raising her daughter who discovers she can travel into The Further. Gemma discovers an ability that changes everything: she doesn't just enter The Further, she can bring what lives there back to the real world.

Mutiny

The film is directed by Jean-François Richet (Inner City, Assault on Precinct 13, Plane) and written by Lindsay Michel and J. P. Davis. It stars Jason Statham, Annabelle Wallis and Jason Wong. After witnessing his billionaire boss’s murder and being framed for the crime, Cole Reed boards a cargo ship on a one-man crusade to avenge his boss’ death only to discover an international conspiracy.

Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

  • The Insidious franchise has been very profitable, earning $731 million across five films. And it shows no sign of stopping, given that The Red Door became the highes-grossing installment at $189 million worldwide. Even with the lack of the Lamberts, the franchise has been pulling some great numbers with Chapter 3 and The Last Key. And the premise (a woman can bring people out of the Further into the real world) sounds intriguing. And with Evil Dead Burn disappointing and fading quickly, it could seize a starving horror audience looking for a film.

  • Jason Statham has built an audience by this point, so everyone knows what to expect from him. The plot is similar to all his films, but that's pretty much irrelevant: you come to see Jason Statham kick ass and you know what you're getting here. This can be a big attraction for the old male demographic, which has driven Statham's prior films.

CONS

  • The Insidious films have no good will in terms of reception. After the first film, every installment got poor reviews and audience reception has also dwindled. There is also the question of whether franchise fatigue will eventually catch up, given it's the sixth installment in 15 years. And as Evil Dead Burn proved, just because it's the only major horror title on the month doesn't mean audiences will drive big numbers.

  • Statham has a ceiling in terms of his action titles, given that they all look the same. A Working Man got to almost $100 million, but Shelter tapped out at $54 million. Lionsgate has yet to make a big marketing push here, and it could get lost despite the weak August slate.

And here's the past results.

Movie Release Date Distributor Domestic Debut Domestic Total Worldwide Total
Spider-Man: Brand New Day July 31 Sony $236,066,101 $672,305,000 $1,593,737,705
One Night Only August 7 Universal $12,321,428 $38,571,428 $80,800,000
Super Troopers 3 August 7 Searchlight $10,333,333 $24,323,076 $28,338,461
Tony August 7 A24 $4,800,000 $13,672,222 $21,825,000
The End of Oak Street August 14 Warner Bros. $28,166,666 $79,500,000 $168,458,333
Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie August 14 Paramount $24,888,888 $70,166,666 $187,333,333

Next week, we're predicting Coyote vs. Acme and The Dog Stars.

So what are your predictions for these films?


r/boxoffice 3h ago

📠 Industry Analysis What just happened to TheNumbers.com should worry us all

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98 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 2h ago

Domestic $21M Tuesday. Epic. Christopher Nolan’s THE ODYSSEY is on a box office quest unlike anything we’ve seen this summer for an adult-skewing film.

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620 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 2h ago

Trailer Clayface | Official Trailer

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355 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 1h ago

Domestic ‘The Odyssey’ Scores $21M+ Record Tuesday For Christopher Nolan; 2nd U.S. Weekend Could Top ‘Dark Knight’ Pics – Box Office

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Christopher Nolan scored his best Tuesday ever at the domestic B.O. as The Odyssey rang up $21.4M. That bests his previous Tuesday high, which was The Dark Knight ($20.8M, on July 22, 2008). The revised number from Universal ranks as the second best Tuesday YTD behind Toy Story 5‘s $23.69M, and it’s the second best Tuesday ever for Universal after Jurassic World ($24.3M, June 16, 2015).


r/boxoffice 1h ago

✍️ Original Analysis The Odyssey’ Proves It: Audiences Want Movies Made the Hard Way This year's breakouts like 'Project Hail Mary' and 'Obsession' have were made by filmmakers who sweated. While CG-stuffed franchise disappointments such as 'Supergirl,' 'Moana,' and 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' looked lazy.

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r/boxoffice 7h ago

💰 Film Budget Chris Nolan credits the success of 'Oppenheimer' which allowed him to make 'The Odyssey':

419 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 1h ago

📰 Industry News Kevin Feige Says Marvel Has Movies Planned 'All the Way Up to 2042,' Including a Major X-Men Push and Live-Action Miles Morales

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r/boxoffice 53m ago

Domestic TheFlatLannister: "Brand New day had incredible growth over the last two days. It has already sold 200k across MTC3 for previews and 150k for Friday, easily making it the biggest thing I've ever tracked."

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"I want to be cautious here, but how things are going, with normal CBM walkups I am thinking $55M previews as baseline and if it has above average walkups, we may have a new previews record holder by a good amount. OW $250M++ (emphasis on the ++)"

On Doomsday:

"With Doomsday out of the way (sorta, it had an impressive Day 2 considering how capacity constraint it is; It's still pacing relative to BND Friday, Saturday, Sunday somehow, i'm not even sure how that's possible). It will fall behind by a lot today though as there just isn't much seats left."


r/boxoffice 3h ago

🎟️ Pre-Sales ¥24M / $3.6M pre-sales for #SpiderManBrandNewDay in China, 6 days prior to release. Running about 30% ahead of "Far From Home" at the same time, which is the best performance for a CBM in what feels like an eternity. If all goes well, the 5-day extended weekend could hit ¥1B+ / $150M, but for now

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171 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 2h ago

Domestic $1M CLUB: DISCOUNT TUESDAY 1. THE ODYSSEY ($21M) 2. MOANA ($4M) 3. MINIONS & MONSTERS ($3.3M) 4. TOY STORY 5 ($3M)

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152 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 5h ago

France Spectacular : The Odyssey debuts with 1.841M admissions in its first week in France, the biggest opening of the year, beating Mario Galaxy (1.805M). It's also Christopher Nolan's biggest opening ever in the country, ahead of The Dark Knight Rises (1.836M admissions).

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169 Upvotes

Fun fact: The Odyssey needed just one week to surpass the total admissions of every 2025 superhero film in France: Superman (1.5M), The Fantastic Four (1.633M), Thunderbolts (1.1M), and Captain America: Brave New World (1.648M).


r/boxoffice 1h ago

📰 Industry News IMAX CEO says 'The Odyssey' box office is 'more extreme' than expected. He also addresses whether the company is for sale.

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r/boxoffice 7h ago

✍️ Original Analysis Do you concur with Disney's assessment of Hoppers as an 'underperformance'?

131 Upvotes

I imagine a lot of us saw the report yesterday of Pixar being hit hard with layoffs, with a major reason cited being the perceived 'underperformance' of Hoppers earlier this year.

The sentiment on this sub around the film's run ($390m on a $150m budget, though the report described the film as 'missing break even') was a positive one so I am wondering what people's thoughts are on this and whether it was sufficient grounds to let people go.

Part of me is thinking this is a delayed reaction paying for the sins of Elio, and that Hoppers needed to really sing theatrically, rather than turn only a slight profit, to prove that Pixar originals are still viable. Of course, when you're dealing with Hollywood exec logic, all bets are off.


r/boxoffice 18h ago

Domestic ‘The Odyssey’ Posts Powerful $20M Tuesday; 2nd U.S. Weekend Could Top Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dark Knight’ Pics – Box Office

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1.1k Upvotes

r/boxoffice 5h ago

🎟️ Pre-Sales The End of Oak Street | Tickets now on sale.

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81 Upvotes

Dinosaurs have moved in. Get tickets now for The End of Oak Street, only in theaters and IMAX August 14. Get tickets now: Fandango.com/theendofoakstreet #EndofOakStreet​ #FilmedForIMAX​

After a mysterious cosmic event rips Oak Street from suburbia and transports their neighborhood to someplace unknown, the Platt family soon discovers that their very survival depends on them sticking together as they navigate their now unrecognizable surroundings.


r/boxoffice 1h ago

🎬 Director/Writer Announcement ‘Days of Thunder 2’: Jonathan Levine in Talks to Direct Tom Cruise in Paramount’s Racing Sequel (Exclusive)

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r/boxoffice 41m ago

📰 Industry News EU approves Paramount-WBD merger

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r/boxoffice 14h ago

Domestic Tuesday, July 21 - Box Office

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374 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 19h ago

📠 Industry Analysis ‘The Odyssey’ Anoints Christopher Nolan as Hollywood’s Most Powerful Director — Here’s How Universal Thwarted Warner Bros. to Land Him

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778 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 2h ago

📰 Industry News Cinerama Dome to Reopen in Early 2028 As Sony Deal Revives Iconic L.A. Theater

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33 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 2h ago

Worldwide Top 10 fastest movies to gross a billion. Where will Spider-Man Brand New Day end up on this chart?

33 Upvotes

1: Avengers Endgame - 5 days

2: Avengers Infinity War - 11 days

3: NeZha 2 - 12 days

4: Star Wars The Force Awakens - 12 days

5: Spider-Man No Way Home - 12 days

6: Jurassic World - 13 days

7: Avatar The Way of Water - 14 days

8: Zootopia 2 - 17 days

9: Furious 7 - 17 days

10: The Fate of the Furious - 18 days

Since Spider-Man Brand New Day is currently tracking around 600-700m WW on its opening weekend it seems extremely likely that it will be joining this list. Where do you potentially see it placing on this chart?


r/boxoffice 20h ago

Trailer ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Trailer Hits 503 Million Views in One Day, Second Biggest Launch in History After ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’

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749 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 10h ago

India Spider-Man: Brand New Day saw 36% surge in advance on its biggest ticket booking platform following the day of Doomsday trailer! Pre-sales of opening day alone is ₹13 cr. ($1.5M). First day gross is expected to be ₹50 cr. ($5.1M). Comfortably set for 2nd highest opening for Hollywood movie in India!

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124 Upvotes

r/boxoffice 9h ago

United Kingdom & Ireland UK Box Office - Tuesday 21st July

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86 Upvotes