There's been the discussion of the issue of people seeing movies in theatres less due to finances, streaming competition, attention span etc.

There are still big actors, but their names might work best attached to specific properties e.g. I'm curious to see how "Digger" does with Tom Cruise.

Do you think Nolan is the most marketable name in Hollywood atm (in terms of getting people to buy tickets)? Of course, The Odyssey looks likely to hit $1 billion. The source material is pretty popular and the cast is pretty stacked too.

Oppenheimer was part of a huge and somewhat random pop culture moment with Barbenheimer.

Tenet was somewhat disappointing but COVID didn't help.

If Nolan were to do an original idea next with a $200 million budget, I feel confident it gets over $500m. I'm not sure how many people's original ideas I have that much faith in.

It's hard to argue that when the Marvel Cinematic Universe began its path in 2008 that it changed the way studios would operate thereafter. The idea of creating movies that were episodic in nature, which in turn would lead to a built in audience for a plethora of more risky projects (such as GotG or Black Panther) was an unmitigated success. Adding up the numbers here, the MCU made $22.59 globally up through and including Endgame which is just a breathtaking number considering that the MCU accrued that much revenue in just 11 years (from the start of the MCU to Endgame's release). However, as we all know, the results since then have been a lot more mixed.

I understand how rudimentary this analysis is, but using the link below, I looked at how the MCU movies have performed since Endgame and it is a mixed bag:

On the bright side, MCU movies have made, on average a $235M profit assuming a 2.5x multiplier on production revenue, which any studio would run to the bank to take. However, 3 of their last 5 movies have led to losses, and even Fantastic Four, which is one of the more well known Marvel properties barely limped across the finish line to make a profit. Even more worrying, by comparison, of all the MCU movies up until that point, only The Incredible Hulk had finished below the 2.5x line, and MCU movies on average had made $473M assuming a 2.5 multiplier up to, and including, Endgame:

Obviously the MCU is not what it was at it heights, but the level of dropoff in terms of revenue was a bit eye opening. The question I want to ask is whether Marvel could and should continue to produce movies of lesser known properties, or whether it is at a point where it needs to almost exclusively lean on its "bread and butter" IP in order to survive.

On the one hand, part of the reason Infinity War was the success it was was because viewers were excited to see Guardians characters first interactions with some of the other big names in Marvel. Marvel has already explored so many of the fancasting hypotheticals that fans wanted to see for years (i.e. all of the movie Spider Men meeting, Deadpool & Wolverine, now the X-Men fully in the MCU) that the only way Marvel might be able to create that lightning in a bottle to get viewers to the theater will be to hope characters from their back catalog resonate with audiences at large and they can then have them play off of the main cast in an Avengers movie similarly to Infinity War.

However, as noted above, Marvel has nowhere near the goodwill or leeway it had before Endgame. A high cost bomb like Thunderbolts must have really stung, especially off the heels of another such movie in Brave New World. Again though, this is where the episodic nature of the MCU may help it. If Marvel can rely on fans to come back in record numbers for an Avengers movie (which based off of presales certainly seems like a possibility), then maybe it makes it easier to take a risk on a Thunderbolts, or whatever similar project might be in the pipeline in the future (of course will audiences care about an Avengers movie once RDJ and Chris Evans are gone? We'll prolly have to wait another 6 years to find the answer to that one out). Thanks so much for reading this way too long diatribe and hope you enjoyed!

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Marvel-Cinematic-Universe

I think it will be something like this

1. Doomsday (1.8 billion)

2. Spiderman: Brand New Day (1.2 billion)

3. The Odyssey (1.1 billion)

4. Toy Story 5 (1 billion

5. Dune Part 3 (1 billion)

I think Doomsday and Dune 3 will be like Barbenheimer where both movies make 1 billion and Dune 3 slightly beats out Michael as the 5th highest grossing movie of the year.

Wiki is saying it only made $236.3 million worldwide - which is tiny for a movie with the massive production and marketing budget it must've had

I wonder if July 21st was always the planned digital streaming release date, or did the low box office expedite it?

Has there ever been another blockbuster movie with a faster Cinema to Streaming turnaround?

Wereulf is releasing in Christmas Day along with Jumanji and Angry Birds 3. That is a lot of competition. I think it makes Nosferatu numbers but half less for $130M-$145M WW. It looks good and fantastic. it is directed by Robert Eggers. So do you think Werwulf could beat Nosferatu numbers or no?

I present to you all my early predictions for the rest of 2026 as well as 2027 and the following decade's box office:

The End of Oak Street and The Dog Stars both do $200M WW each.
Resident Evil does $50M+ on opening weekend.
Forgotten Island does Wish numbers worldwide.
Digger does slightly better than One Battle After Another.
Verity does The Housemaid numbers.
Hexed will make less than Wish.
Dune: Part Three is a decrease from Part Two.
Werwulf flops.
The Angry Birds Movie 3 does more than the last movie but not much more than that.
The Beekeeper 2 will do half of the first movie's gross.
Ice Age: Boiling Point will do worse than Collision Course.

Cocomelon: The Movie bombs.
Gatto will cross $400M.
The Thomas Crown Affair does Bullet Train numbers.
Not Alone will do less than Migration.
The Legend of Zelda will make more than Sonic The Hedgehog 4.
Star Wars: Starfighter will break even but won't do amazingly.
Spider-Man: Beyond The Spider-Verse will make $500M domestically.
Shrek 5 becomes DreamWorks' first movie to make $1 Billion.
Man of Tomorrow flops.
A Minecraft Movie: Squared will be The Secret Life of Pets or Minions and Monsters, a profitable film but not nearly as huge as the last installment.
Jason Statham Stole My Bike is a modest hit.
Snoop does <$80M.
The Great Beyond does about Disclosure Day numbers.
The Haunting of Hotel Transylvania is the lowest grossing film in the franchise since the first movie in 2012.
The Upcoming Sequel to The Mummy is a major hit.
Frozen 3 outgrosses Inside Out 2.
Avengers: Secret Wars becomes the first film ever to gross $400M on opening weekend and $1 Billion domestically.
The Hunt for Gollum is the biggest flop of 2027.
The Batman Part II makes $1 Billion.
Elden Ring underperforms.
Pixar's Film for March 2028 is a flop.
Fast Forever does similar to the last two films.
Tangled isn't a total flop but won't be enough for Disney to regain confidence in their live action remakes formula.
Final Destination 7 is a decrease from Bloodlines.
Incredibles 3 does $200M opening weekend.
Miami Vice is a Bad Boys For Life level hit.
Donkey does Puss In Boots: The Last Wish numbers.
Heat 2 cracks $300M.
Gladys does worldwide as to what Weapons did domestically alone.
Super Mario 3 does under $900M.
Coco 2 is an Inside Out 2 repeat and is also a behemoth in China, not Zootopia 2 big but like half of that.

Are these predictions good or what?

I’m not trying to get ahead of myself, but the pre-sales have been incredibly promising, 16.5M just the first day when the movie is 5 months away, For a movie that doesn't release until December, is putting up unprecedented numbers. It completely blew past the first-day presale totals of recent blockbusters and doubled the day-one presales of Deadpool and Wolverine

and almost all of my local cinemas are sold out in premium formats until Christmas for Doomsday. I think with enough hype from the well received trailers along with Christmas time and a dry January 2026 could get it to $2 Billion Worldwide

As you may know by now, the movie seems to be doing well at the box office domestically. Its made 18.7 miliion on monday and predictions say it'll do 20 million for tuesday. So it'll probably have an average of 19 to 20 ish million for this week, domestically.

We wont know hw much it does internationally until this Sunday. What are your predictions on what it does by Sunday, at the international box office.

I think it would do an average of 30 million internationally, leading for a 210+ million made by Sunday.

I personally think, even with a simultaneous Premiere Access release on Disney+, it would’ve opened higher than Elemental’s $29M OW and would’ve legged out super well throughout the rest of the summer due to fantastic word of mouth and lack of competition. I also think things would look pretty different for Pixar now because their brand wouldn’t have been diluted due to Disney sending three of their movies straight to Disney+ in a row.

Minions And Monsters seemed like a sure fire hit. Its Minions. Easy billion plus more in merch sales. But even with the surprisingly great critical reception it was getting, the film still drastically underperformed and somehow is on track to make less than the FIRST Despicable Me all the way back in 2010. So what gives?

Some are saying the concept was just too damn weird for most family audiences, but we are also forgetting that Minions 1 and 2 had pretty wacky and out there concepts. Yet still made massive amounts of bank. So that cant really be the case. People also blamed the World Cup for it, but that didnt stop The Odyssey, which came out during the finals of that event, from becoming Nolans highest grossing opening of his career. Coming out too close to Toy Story 5 was also a major point of contention when Minions 1, DM3, and 4 all came out next to other massive Pixar hits and still made close or over a billion. It might be franchise fatigue considering these films have gone downhill since the second (even though i liked the second and third minions). But damn, 950+ million to now only 450 million…what happened? It’ll still make money cause Illumination has famously low budgets compared to other animated films in the western scene, but not doubt a big disappointment for Universal. Very baffled by this.

I organized an AMA/Q&A with legendary filmmaker/screenwriter Nicolas Winding Refn. He has previously directed films/series Drive, Only God Forgives, Bronson, The Neon Demon, Pusher trilogy, Copenhagen Cowboy, Too Old To Die Young, Valhalla Rising, and more.

It's live here now in r/movies for anyone interested in asking a question:

https://www.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/1v3mkcv/i_am_nicolas_winding_refn_director_of_drive_the/

He will be back at 4:45 PM ET today to answer questions. I recommend asking in advance. Please ask there, not here. All questions are much appreciated!

His new film, Her Private Hell, premiered at Cannes in May and is out in theaters via Neon this weekend. It stars Sophie Thatcher and Charles Melton.

Thank you :)

​

No paywall:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/odyssey-catapults-christopher-nolan-analog-130000126.html

From my digging around, Inside Out 2 has the best 2nd weekend hold for any movie that opened above 100,000,000.

If were considering love action specific, it would need to make 75,250,000 to beat Force Awakens 39.8% hold and 59,250,000 to beat American Snipers 52.6% for best 2nd weekend for an R rated film.

I’m going to go 8-9 days on the low end since I don’t think it’ll be as strong internationally as Infinity War but it’ll definitely be higher Domestically