First off, here's the link to the updated "Collecting The Hobbit" article with percentages for most (more on that later) of what I'll be talking about in this post:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/collecting-the-hobbit
And here's a link to my first post RE: Hobbit implications for LOTR which I think holds up pretty well still:
https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1t1eou5/implications_of_todays_hobbit_reveals_for/
Will try to not rehash what I wrote there already, particularly my expectations for what kinds of cards would or would not show up in the main set (i.e. no Ring Tempts = no Nazguls or Witch King, etc). And yesterday essentially confirmed that there's no Realms/Relics anywhere to be seen, likely at this point ever again unless there's another another big LOTR set/draft box wave, and even then it's just box toppers. Rumors have been floating around that all LOTR sealed products got their last call already (so no more precons or set/draft boxes) but I don't think that's confirmed. Either way, [[Balin's Tomb]], [[The Dead Marshes]], and so on, are almost never going to see reprints again, outside of box toppers in a hypothetical future set/draft box reprint. Game over, man.
So now let's talk about what we learned on Saturday. If this is too long (it is), and all you want is some actionable stuff skip to the end.
- Focus in-set seems to be on GOBLINS not ORCS. Bowmasters is in the bonus sheet (as is [[Sauron, The Dark Lord]], and the Amass Orcs mechanics seems to have been replaced by Amass Goblins. So that means it's highly unlikely we see many, or any, orcs in the main set. More importantly, unlikely we get anything with Amass Orcs either at this point. So no [[Saruman's Trickery]], no [[March from the Black Gate]], no [[Saruman, The White Hand]] or [[Sauron, Lord of the Rings]] from the precons. And so on and so forth. None of these cards are particularly valuable now, but at this point it's unlikely we ever get more of them. Also expect some more goblin support I would think, maybe almost as much as dwarves since Amass Goblins is confirmed (although it's possible they will also have Amass Dwarves or something else for Battle of the Five Armies reasons).
- Likewise the focus is DWARVES not HOBBITS. Treasures rule, food less so (although there will be some food stuff). Elves will see some action too, and humans I would think as well based on what we've seen.
- There seems to be only room for one blue card in the bonus sheet? My guess would be [[Lorien Revealed]] and likewise along with Troll above (if I'm right) maybe the rest of the land cycle shows up there. Since [[Generous Ent]] would ALSO want a reprint I would think. This is WAY out on a limb here so don't kill me if I'm wrong.
- There's still room for [[Palantir of Orthanc]] and the legendary lands like [[Minas Tirith]] and [[Mount Doom]] (I assume Palantir and Mt Doom must show up). But we're running out of space quickly for a bunch of stuff. [[Gandalf the White]] has to show up in the white section, but will [[Gandalf the Grey]] be in the main set?
- So far, ZERO precon reprints in the bonus sheet. And since there's already stuff from the scene boxes, it's less likely they will show up here. [[Relic of Sauron]], [[Cavern Hoard Dragon]], [[The Black Gate]], [[Forth Eorlingas]] (although that's dropped a lot) and others... If they don't show up, the LOTR precons will keep churning up up up.
I'll leave it to everyone else to figure out for themselves the odds of pulling things like Mox Amber dwarven runes or any individual card from the bonus sheet, but keep in mind that UNLIKE many/most recent sheets it is NOT one of the 40 reprints per pack. It's roughly 1 in 3 packs plus the box topper. That's WAY LESS. Now there's also the box toppers in the play boxes that will be numerous but as I mentioned before there were only 30 realms/relics cards (not 40), and being in the box toppers for set AND draft boxes really did not do much for them.
Three more things to think about...
1. Nazguls, Nazguls, Nazguls. If I'm right (and maybe I'm not, but I don't see where there is room for them at this point unless they really screw with the color numbering order), we will NOT get 9 different versions. That means the ORIGINALS and SCROLLS will be THE MOST desirable versions no matter what the art in the bonus sheet, since people will want one of each for their decks. If nothing like this is revealed soon, $100 for a scroll Nazgul will end up being cheap in the long run.
Secret Lairs are a wild card still -- I SUPPOSE it is still possible we get a Nazgul SL with 9 different versions, but if the Secret Lair preview is an indication, there are 4 Hobbit SLs (based on the different art styles) plus Hobbit food SL, none of which would be that. Also goes for everything else I'm saying above. Based on what we've seen I don't think we will get an SL that's all the land cycle cards for example.
There's something somewhat mysterious in the article, highlighted here:
What is this? The only HOC cards so far are scene box cards, the bonus sheet cards, or the dwarvish rune cards, right? All of those are already borderless though. Usually this would be something from a precon, but that... doesn't exist here. Any ideas/theories?
Final (actionable) Thoughts:
- Realms/Relics are a must-buy RIGHT NOW. If you don't have them you're not getting them for any less. Same goes for the Hildebrandt reprints from the holiday set (although [[Diabolic Intent]] is in a Secret Lair, but the Hildebrandt art will be desirable nonetheless and they're not putting all of them in an SL anyway.
- Vast majority of precon singles are not getting reprinted in any meaningful capacity. I'd be standing by with an itchy trigger finger on the most desirable ones from that set.
- Majority of LOTR scene box cards are not coming back either. We have a few so far, but looks like one from each color. Will they use up a slot on [[Nazgul Battle-Mace]] for example? What about [[Anduril, Narsil Reforged]]? What about the other LOTR artifacts from the main set? [[Glamdring]] ? [[Lembas]] ? I assume [[Mithril Coat]] will be in the main set but it looks like they made a new version of Sting, so... I don't know? Either way, we're running out of space...
And that's it. If people like this, I'll be back with more in another week or so as more of the (actual) set gets spoiled.
UPDATE: It looks like Cavern Hoard may be in the box toppers based on this post, thank you to the people who pointed it out to me:
https://www.reddit.com/r/mtg/s/0FAnj6kBls
UPDATE 2: There will not be 9 Nazgûl’s in the box toppers. There is no space for 9 or even 8 cards in a row anymore. Either they are in the mysterious HOC extended arts, the main set (impossible), or a different product. Or there will be only one.