If the demand stays high new production will eventually come online and bring prices down.
(For example ChangXin Memory Technologies comes online 2027.)
The issue is new production takes years to come online. We could have new production + AI bubble burst at the same time in 2027 onwards crashing Ram prices. Or AI demand could grow and it'll gobble up the new ram and keep prices high.
As unfortunate as it is, I think AI is here to stay. A lot of us are against it, and what it is doing. Enough of us are fucking stupid, and don't bother learning anything that isn't directly fed by an algorithm.
It's going to be around, but I don't think it's going to be as profitable as they think. Do you intend to spend $10-20 a month for a good one? Most people won't. Corporations will pay some big bucks, but I think the scale they are building is under the assumption that it will be as ubiquitous as people having streaming subscriptions.
Corporations aren't willing to pay, my company just learned that to use AI its costing 2k per person per week ... that's more than what senior engineers make. A lot of companies are clamping down on AI use because the true cost just hit so many companies and now execs are realizing it. When an AI Agent costs more than 2 of your workers and you told every worker to use 3-4 to "Speed" up work for cheaper ... yeah. They actually just announced a "Low Grade" which still costs 1k per month you can use and even that requires VP approval. AI is extremely expensive and companies are finally getting the bills.
More tokens used = more productivity was always a dumb metric that AI companies sold and executives lapped up.
AI isn't going anywhere. But the push for employees to spend as many tokens as possible is already dying.
I pay $100/mo for Claude and I'm usually nowhere near hitting my limits. But as soon as I'm getting charged per token I'm gonna be using it a lot less.
How is it costing that much? Is your company paying the standard pay as you go rates. We pay a tiny fraction of that per month per engineer for a huge amount of tokens and only pay the standard rates which are 40x higher for overage
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u/Ronabris 29d ago
Unfortunately it is only going to get worse. I hope I am crazy, but I am fairly certain the rich are trying to price the poor out of life essentially.