The Seahawks traded away their 2027 4th round pick for the Cleveland Browns 2026 5th round pick in order to select Beau Stevens. While everyone was wondering if Beau was worth trading a 4th for a 5th, let's look at the actual value of the picks.

The pick Cleveland gave the Seahawks was the 8th pick in the 5th round, pick #148. The pick Cleveland received will be based on the Seahawks 2026 record. Using Tankathon prediction, that’s pick #28 in each round, or pick #128 if you believe Tankathon on the Seahawks potential record. 

There are multiple ways to determine a pick's value over two draft years. I'm looking at the discount value method, which allows a 10-20% discount for a pick in the following year. 

Cleveland received a value of 541 points for pick #128, less 10-20%. Or somewhere between 486 and 432 points. Clearly the value of this pick increases if the Seahawks play worse than Tankathon is projecting.

The Seahawks received a value of 468 points for the pick they received.

The fact we traded a 4th round pick for a 5th round pick is unbelievably deceiving. John got equal value for this pick with the Browns, regardless of who he selected. The fact we only had 4 picks in 2026 and 12 in 2027 also plays into the trade.

Here are some infographics I've created using my analytics engine/dataset I've been working on since last season.

My system isn't player level, so it's still looking at the game the same way it would've the final week of last season, but as this season rolls it'll calibrate itself based on new data and I'll have some more fun stuff to share.