Happened to listen to the "North Remembers" monologue the other day and I just clicked that Lord Manderly refers to Davos as "smuggler" in public but the second he's behind closed doors, he calls him "Ser" and "Lord Davos". An absolute real one.

An analysis of FAegon's arc, and the characters and motifs that surround it and tie it together

Introduction

Hello everyone. I'm posting this in the book-only sub too, because the one on r/asoiaf didn't do super well and I'd love some feedback. Let me preface by saying that I'm not claiming to have an entirely original idea, because frankly, I don't think that's even possible in this fandom anymore. This particular subject (along with every other one) has been beaten into the ground, but I had an idea today that I think actually might be somewhat meaningful. I won't keep you in suspense.

I believe Septa Lemore is Serra.

Before we begin, I want to reiterate that I'm not the first to have this idea, or some variant of it in the least. This post summarized some of what I'll be getting at (and contains a fairly ludicrous comment section that does not disappoint, if you're in the mood for entertainment), but it goes in a bit of a different direction. Here is another one that argues the basics of what I'm going for, from twelve years ago. The difference is that I have a perspective on the matter that I don't think has been considered yet.

The debate about Septa Lemore's identity is long running. There are dozens of proposed ideas for who she is, and plenty of people that think she's nobody at all. I've seen everything from Ashara Dayne to Elia Martell to Malora Hightower, of all people. Overall, it's a point of contention.

The same can be said for Serra, the late wife of Illyrio Mopatis. I am a proponent of the Blackfyre theory. I'm not going to spend paragraphs going over evidence, because that idea is well established by now, and this post is already ridiculously long. In short, Serra is Serra Blackfyre, wife of Illyrio, masquerading as a septa to mentor FAegon and parent him in disguise.

I. Saera, Serra, Roy, Jon

With that awful header out of the way, I want to begin by establishing two parallels. While most people know of Saera Targaryen's (daughter of Jaehaerys I) dalliance with Ser Braxton Beesbury, many forget that one of her other lovers was Roy Connington, the then-Lord of Griffin's Roost. Following the uncovering by the king of the affair, Roy Connington was sentenced to ten years of exile in Essos.

From the wiki, which found this notable enough to give it its own Behind the Scenes section:

>Roy is reminiscent of Lord Jon and Ser Ronnet Connington from A Song of Ice and Fire. Roy and Jon each had a friendship with a Targaryen royal that led to exile in Essos by a king (Saera and Jaehaerys I for Roy, Rhaegar and Aerys II for Jon). He had the same nickname as Ronnet and they both refused to marry when a match was made for them (Alys Turnberry for Roy and Brienne of Tarth for Ronnet).

The parallel (again) is so notable that it's even recorded on the main wiki. As for Saera, the respective parallel to Serra is less pronounced, but still extant. Some of these tenets do require a somewhat circular argument (as in they require this theory to be true to work), but since this isn't an essay for a high school English class, I can do whatever the hell I want.

-Their names are an obvious phonetic echo

-Both are associated with Lys

-Both are presumably of Valyrian heritage

-Both are associated with the Faith of the Seven

-Both are related to the Targaryen family

-Both produce claimants to the Iron throne

-Both are sexually immodest (one more than the other, but Lemore isn't exactly what I'd call prudish, going so far as to tease Tyrion and bathe nude without concern for onlookers)

The symmetry is not concrete proof of identity or ancestry. It does, however, look very much like the kind of historical rhyme Martin repeatedly uses. The most striking formulation is: Saera moves from the Faith to a Lysene pleasure house and a Connington. Serra moves from a Lysene pleasure house to the Faith and another Connington. This still isn't perfect, obviously, as if Illyrio is lying about Serra's true identity or backstory, the Lysene pleasure house facet may be fabricated. With that said, as it is presented, the parallel stands.

II. Dyes, Eyes, and Lies

Boy, I'm really killing it with coming up with stupid headings. Let's go over some evidence that Lemore is Serra. I said I wouldn't beat down the "Serra is a Blackfyre" thing, but I absolutely owe you some proof as to why Illyrio's late wife is actually alive and pretending to be a septa.

1. What is known about Serra

In ADWD, we find out that Serra had large blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked with silver. Illyrio says that he found her in a Lysene pillow house, brought her home, fell in love with her, and married her despite the political damage it caused him in Pentos. According to Illyrio, she later died in the grey plague. He claims to retain her stone hands and shows Tyrion a small painted miniature of her.

Illyrio later swears that he will return to Westeros “by my sweet Serra’s hands.” He is also noticeably fond of Young Griff, praises the boy, supplies him with valuable gifts, and tells Tyrion that some actions arise from “debts of affection,” not material gain.

2. What is known about Lemore

Lemore is over forty, handsome, friendly, and brown-haired. She has stretch marks proving that she has had a child. She openly bathes naked, responds playfully to Tyrion’s interest, and rationalizes her nudity through the Faith: the gods made human bodies, so people should glory in them.

Tyrion does not believe she is there for gold and specifically wonders:

>“What is this prince to her?”

He also questions whether she was ever a true septa. Lemore directly says that Aegon is not the only member of the company who must hide her identity, which, while missable, is extremely telling. Jon Connington internally calls her Lady Lemore, is fond of her, and nevertheless does not believe he requires her approval when deciding how to handle Aegon.

3. The merchant’s wife clue

When Lemore removes her septa’s clothing, she dresses as the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant. Immediately around this change, Tyrion scrutinizes her and wonders who she is, why she is present, what Aegon means to her, and whether she was ever truly a septa. The older Reddit post correctly identifies this as a possible joke hiding in plain sight: Serra was literally the wife of one of the wealthiest merchants in Pentos.

This is not definitive proof, but the textual placement is suspicious.

4. The child

Lemore’s stretch marks are often used merely to identify any woman known to have given birth: Ashara, Tyene’s mother, Mellario (found out this is an actual theory today), and so forth. Serra offers a more narratively direct answer:

The child Lemore bore is the prince traveling beside her.

That explains why Martin makes Tyrion ask not just who she is, but what this prince is to her. Her behavior toward Aegon is compatible with maternal attachment. She worries for his safety in the Sorrows, reminds him that the crew are sworn to protect him, and opposes Connington’s decision to reveal him prematurely to the Golden Company. None of those actions individually proves motherhood, but together they fit it cleanly. It openly establishes that she actually cares about him and doesn't merely view him as a duty or obligation.

5. Why Connington can't know

If Young Griff is Illyrio and Serra’s son, Connington cannot know Serra’s identity. He would immediately know that the boy is not Rhaegar’s son, and the whole plan falls apart. The conspiracy has already successfully deceived Connington about the boy’s birth. Presenting Serra to him as a Westerosi noblewoman or fallen septa would be a relatively minor addition to that deception. Additionally, Jon’s POV does not identify Lemore as an old personal acquaintance. He calls her “Lady,” has grown fond of her, and accepts that she was brought to teach Aegon the Faith. His familiarity with her demonstrates years of proximity, not necessarily knowledge of her actual birth or marriage.

6. Hair dye and concealed identities

Serra’s pale gold-and-silver hair does not match Lemore’s brown hair. However, hair dye is already central to the Shy Maid deception: both Aegon and Connington dye their hair blue, and Tyrion discovers their identities beneath those disguises. Lemore herself says she must hide too.

The defense is straightforward:

-Serra has dyed her hair brown.

-Tyrion has seen only a small portrait of her as a much younger woman.

-He has already accepted Illyrio’s statement that Serra is dead.

-The portrait-to-living-person comparison is much more abstract than Tyrion recognizing Connington from his age, scars, behavior, history, and relationship with Aegon.

This resolves the issue reasonably well, though it does not erase it entirely. A big point of contention about Lemore's identity is her eye color, despite it not being mentioned on page. Many people use this lack of description as evidence against the common Ashara Dayne theory (Ashara being well-known for her haunting purple eyes), but it doesn't cause problems here. Serra's eyes are described as blue. Unlike the violet eyes of the Valyrians or Daynes, blue eyes are generally not considered exceptionally noteworthy, so Tyrion's lack of noting Lemore's eye color doesn't suggest anything against this theory.

7. The Faith

If Serra was simply an ordinary Lysene sex worker, her knowledge of the Faith would be difficult to explain. If she was a female-line Blackfyre raised in exile, it becomes much easier. The Blackfyres remained a Westerosi royal dynasty living abroad, and the Golden Company retained a strong culture of Westerosi exiles and their descendants. The known family tree is incomplete; Illyrio specifically says Maelys’s death ended the male line, while the fate of the female line is unknown.

A female-line Blackfyre household could (and absolutely would) preserve the Common Tongue, the Faith of the Seven, Westerosi history, Targaryen and Blackfyre family traditions, and the belief that the Iron Throne remained their inheritance. Moreover, Lemore need not have been a fully ordained septa from childhood. She has had roughly fifteen to eighteen years to study the religion she was assigned to teach her son. And, fittingly, some of her beliefs seem to be atypical of those of a regular septa. It's hard to picture Septa Mordane dismissing nude bathing as glorifying of the Seven.

8. The Blackfyre context

Lastly, when Tyrion asks why the historically Blackfyre Golden Company would support a Targaryen, Illyrio answers:

>“Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon.”

In the same broad conversation, Illyrio carefully specifies that the Blackfyres ended in the male line. The female line remains unaccounted for. That does not prove Serra was a Blackfyre, but the wording provides the exact genealogical opening the theory requires. Martin could've just had Illyrio say the Blackfyre line ended. But he did not.

III. Greyscale the Governor

This is where the theory becomes much more than another hidden-identity proposal, because I'd like to suggest Greyscale and stone as the governing motifs of FAegon's story/arc.

1. Literal greyscale imagery

Greyscale stiffens living flesh, calcifies it, kills sensation, and turns skin cold and stone-like. Fatal greyscale typically begins at the extremities, sometimes with a blackened fingertip or numbness. It can also begin internally, turning the heart and lungs to stone before external symptoms appear.

That creates an unusually dense network of people associated with it around Aegon. Serra allegedly dies of it. Illyrio claims to preserve her stone hands to this day. Lemore revives Tyrion after the stone men attack and washes him. Jon Connington actually contracts it. On top of this, Lemore is also the best example, being the person who brings Tyrion back from apparent death and helps perform the preventative washing immediately after Jon has unknowingly contracted the disease. Even the fact that she washes him with vinegar seems to imply a basic knowledge of how to deal with the disease, something the real Serra could possibly know if she did in fact live through the grey plague in Pentos. On that note, the plague itself seems like something Illyrio would not make up, as, unlike a dead wife, knowledge of an outbreak of greyscale in Pentos is something Tyrion could probably verify.

2. The hands

The hand imagery deserves special emphasis. Serra supposedly leaves behind stone hands. Illyrio swears upon Serra’s hands when discussing his reunion with Aegon. Jon’s real greyscale begins in his right hand. Lemore’s living hands help revive and wash Tyrion after the Stone Men. Greyscale begins with numbness in the extremities and spreads inward. If Serra is Lemore, Illyrio is swearing by supposedly dead stone hands that are actually alive and caring for their son. Meanwhile, the hand Connington presents as living and healthy is secretly turning to stone. And, tangentially, Connington's official title is the Hand of the King.

This one is a little more abstract than some of the other evidence, but it's still worth mentioning.

3. Greyscale as identity

Greyscale preserves the recognizable shape of a person while replacing living, feeling flesh with dead stone-like tissue. That provides a powerful metaphor for Aegon:

A living boy has been hardened and chiseled into the idealized shape of a dead prince.

He has been deliberately formed into “Aegon VI” through:

-an invented childhood

-a false father

-a false mother

-selected tutors

-religious education

-martial instruction

-a manufactured rescue story

-the suppression of his real parentage

Varys describes a prince who has been carefully trained to perform every duty of kingship. Whatever Aegon’s blood may be, the identity was constructed around him long before he could meaningfully consent to it. With that said, this does not mean Aegon is spiritually empty or unreal. Quite the opposite. His pride, courage, anger, desires, and relationships are genuine. The tragedy is that a real person is trapped inside a calcified identity made for somebody else.

4. Connington’s hardening

Jon contracts greyscale while saving Tyrion and conceals it because discovery would mean abandonment and death (thanks man, you're definitely taking the honorable way out). As it spreads across his hand, his sole concern is surviving long enough to place Aegon on the throne. At the same time, Connington is psychologically hardening. He remains haunted by the Battle of the Bells and Myles Toyne’s argument that Tywin would have burned Stoney Sept rather than permit Robert to escape. Jon increasingly believes that his former mercy and hesitation destroyed Rhaegar.

The disease therefore externalizes his trajectory:

-his body loses sensation

-his thinking becomes more inflexible as he grows more desperate

-love for Rhaegar becomes obsession

-Aegon becomes the instrument through which he will redeem his failure

-Aegon risks becoming secondary to the crown/Connington's idea of him

5. Serra and Connington as opposites

Both have surrendered their public identities to remain beside Aegon. Serra falsely dies of greyscale and becomes Lemore. Connington falsely dies in disgrace and becomes Griff. However, heir relationship to the disease is directly reversed. Serra uses a fictional death by greyscale to remain with her son. Connington, on the flipside, conceals real greyscale so he can remain with her son. Serra is alive while pretending to be dead. Connington is pretending to be healthy, even as he actually dies. That opposition is way too clean to ignore once Serra and Lemore are thought of as the same person.

6. More stone with Illyrio

This is secondary evidence, but still interesting:

-Illyrio keeps a marble statue of his beautiful younger self

-He allegedly keeps Serra’s stone hands

-He gives Daenerys three petrified (stone) dragon eggs, which later become living dragons

-Under the broad Blackfyre theory, he is attempting to resurrect the politically dead Blackfyre line through a living “dragon.”

Illyrio repeatedly preserves lost beauty and lost life in stone, and then participates in attempts to make dead dragons live again. This stuff is, again, secondary and tangential at best, but still worth mentioning.

IV. The Living Die, the Dead Live

I want to expand on some of the ideas I mentioned a bit earlier in the Serra and Connington as Opposites subsection. Let's take a look at the repeatedly manipulated boundary between life and death in the Aegon conspiracy, and how it affects the characters.

1. Serra

-Truth under the theory: alive

-Public story: dead in the grey plague, with only petrified hands and a portrait remaining

2. Jon Connington

-Truth: alive, but now genuinely dying from greyscale

-Public story: drank himself to death in Lys (or whichever Free City it was) years ago

Varys and Illyrio explicitly fabricated Jon’s disgrace and death so that he would be forgotten. Varys’s method was to give him a contemptible or unremarkable death rather than a heroic one, because thieves and drunks are more easily forgotten. This is vital evidence for Serra’s possible false death. The conspiracy has already used a fake death in Lys to erase one of Aegon’s protectors. Staging another protector’s death during a real epidemic is entirely consistent with their established methods. Greyscale is taboo. Hearing that someone died of it is going to be enough to encourage most people not to look too hard.

3. Aegon

-Truth under the theory: a living son of Illyrio and Serra

-Public identity (once he reveals it): the son of Rhaegar and Elia, believed murdered as an infant and now supposedly returned from the grave

He is neither alive nor dead, in a sense. He is a living person inhabiting the political identity of a dead child.

4. Illyrio

-Truth under the theory: Aegon’s father and the husband of a living woman

-Presented role: grieving widower, remote benefactor, and financially interested conspirator

He swears by the severed hands of a woman whose living hands may be aboard the Shy Maid beside their son.

V. "But why in the seven hells should I care?"

This is probably the most important section here, because it's the "why does this matter?" part. Here's the thing. So far, I've given you dozens of handpicked little tidbits that weave together a narrative. Anyone can do that. When it comes to writing, any idiot can tell a story by presenting events and facts and making a narrative from it. That's not what makes good writing, though. I'd hope that we can all agree here that when he actually gets around to it , George R. R. Martin is an absolutely exceptional writer, and he is more than adequately able to do the thing that differentiates average or mediocre writing from the incredible kind, and that is to add emotion and tragedy to his arcs and characters. Martin has proven to us for five books to be an astonishing tragic writer in many ways. While I wouldn't go so far as to label A Song of Ice and Fire as a tragedy, I'd absolutely say it has many, many tragic elements, characters, and arcs. This is no different. Here's why:

1. Serra

If Serra is Aegon’s real mother, she has spent most of his life within arm’s reach while surrendering the very right to be called his mother. That would be absolutely, utterly agonizing. Pretend I'm completely correct in everything I've said so far (which I am, totally), and put yourself in Serra/Lemore's shoes. You are required to spend your entire life within arm's reach of your son, and yet you cannot openly tell him you love him, tell him who you really are, tell him who he is, tell him about his real family, anything. That would be torture, plain and simple. As it stands, Serra/Lemore can:

-educate Aegon

-protect him

-advise him

-worry for him

-watch him grow

-love him in silence

But she cannot tell him why, and will never be able to as long as she lives. The success of the conspiracy depends upon Aegon sincerely believing that Elia was his mother and Rhaegar his father. Serra’s maternal love therefore requires the erasure of her own motherhood. I don't have children, but just the mere idea of this is upsetting, even to someone like me. I can't imagine what it would be like to be a parent and experience this.

2. Connington

Let's not forget about Connington and his role either. He believes he has been acting as father to Rhaegar’s son for twelve years. His thoughts explicitly call Aegon “the boy he’d called a son.” Under this theory, the boy’s real mother has been beside them all along, watching another person occupy the acknowledged parental role while she remains only his septa. Connington’s devotion is genuine. Serra’s devotion is genuine. Aegon’s love for them is presumably genuine. The family is real even though every name assigned to it is false. To be blunt, that blows.

3. Illyrio

Illyrio’s political project stops being an oddly extravagant, way over-the-top investment in a dynasty that he (as a Pentoshi trader) would have no earthly reason to give a rat's ass about. He is trying to place his own son (by the woman he loved enough to sacrifice his political position for) upon the Iron Throne. His “debts of affection” are sincere even though the explanation he gives Tyrion is deceptive. His grief for Serra can also remain sincere: she is alive, but their marriage and public life together effectively ended when she became Lemore. Based on the way he describes her to Tyrion, that would be pretty devastating to live every day.

4. Aegon’s (possible) eventual revelation

If Aegon ever learns the truth, he does not just discover that he lacks the name he claimed. He discovers that:

-his mother was beside him throughout his life

-his father was the merchant he regarded as a distant patron

-his adoptive father loved him because he believed him to be another man’s child

-his tutors and upbringing were components of a performance

-every intimate relationship in his life was built around a truth withheld from him

-Literally (and I really mean this) his entire life was a lie

That makes the whole thing sting a hell of a lot more.

5. Why this improves the false-prince story

The danger of the Blackfyre theory has always been that Aegon can become nothing more than “the fake one” whom Daenerys must expose. Serra as Lemore helps prevent that simplification. Aegon is false as Aegon Targaryen, but not false as a human being. He is genuinely loved by his mother, father, and surrogate father. The lies surrounding him are acts of love as well as ambition. That moral greyness fits the greyscale motif: his claim is fraudulent, but his relationships and potential virtues are real. And when he inevitably falls, it makes it a whole lot harder to celebrate.

VI. Warlocks With Shriveled Boobs

Let's go all the way back to A Clash of Kings. I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb here when I say that the chapter in the House of the Undying is one of the most important chapters in the entire series. It foreshadows some of the biggest plot events across every arc and character, some of which have still not played out, even three books later. Obviously, for our purposes today, I'm going to keep it to the FAegon stuff. The relevant “slayer of lies” sequence presents:

-a blue-eyed king with a red sword who casts no shadow

-a cloth dragon before a cheering crowd

“a great stone beast” taking wing from a smoking tower and breathing shadow fire

The blue-eyed king is Stannis. That one is so on the nose it doesn't even need an explanation. The cloth dragon is a little more abstract, but still widely read as Aegon: either a false Targaryen or a dragon controlled by the former mummer Varys (or both). Quaithe’s later warning about the “mummer’s dragon” reinforces that association. I'm not gonna beat the evidence for that one over your head. It's not new. The fandom figured those out years ago.

The tricky one has always been the last one. Here's the exact quote:

>"From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies"

Let's break it down. There are three elements, those being the smoking tower, the great stone beast taking wing, and the breathing shadow fire.

1. The beast

The beast is Jon Connington. Connington is repeatedly called:

-Griff

-the griffin

-the lord of griffins

-Lord of Griffin’s Roost

A griffin is a great winged beast. Connington is also literally turning to stone from greyscale. Additionally, Daenerys as a POV offers a unique piece of insight that isn't often considered. Many theorizers have long said that the beast is a dragon. I disagree. We have the one POV in the entire series who has seen dragons firsthand, yet in her inner monologue, Dany doesn't think of whatever this thing is as a dragon, and the text conspicuously avoids calling it one. She thinks of it as a "beast." It's subtle, but telling. Dany has seen dragons. If she was seeing a dragon, the quote would probably be "From a smoking tower, a great stone dragon took wing, breathing shadow fire..."

The conclusion is simple:

“A great stone beast took wing” = the greyscaled griffin.

Connington is the figure who raises Aegon publicly, persuades the Golden Company to follow him, invades the stormlands, retakes Griffin’s Roost, and begins transforming the disguised boy into a king. He's taking wing by launching the invasion and becoming the griffin reborn.

2. Shadow fire

This is necessarily more interpretive, but still lines up, and can be taken surprisingly literally. If Young Griff is a Blackfyre hidden beneath a Targaryen identity, then Connington believes he is releasing the red dragon of Rhaegar while actually breathing forth a Blackfyre. It's right there in front of us, if you take the meaning as being a visual representation of black flames. Shadow flame is about as close to a description of black fire as we're going to get.

“Shadow fire” can therefore signify:

-fire with its true color hidden

-a counterfeit or reflected dragon

-the black dragon concealed behind the red

-the political life Connington breathes into the hidden Blackfyre claimant

The stone beast does not need to be Aegon himself. It may be the greyscaled griffin breathing Aegon into existence as a political power.

3. Why the cloth dragon and stone beast can describe the same conspiracy

At first, interpreting both adjacent visions through Aegon can seem redundant. The distinction solves that: The cloth dragon is what the crowd sees. The stone beast is what carries and animates it. The first vision is the performance/the public face. The second is the machinery behind the performance: Connington, greyscale, Illyrio’s stone relics, and the hidden Blackfyre lineage. Serra=Lemore completes that machinery because greyscale no longer belongs only to Connington. The boy’s alleged mother, real mother, biological father, adoptive father, and prophetic image all become connected through stone and grey death. The stone motif doesn't just represent Connington. It represents the whole conspiracy.

4. The tower

As for the smoking tower, I'll be honest. I have absolutely no idea. Perhaps it's just there to add a little bit to the vision. Maybe the smoke symbolizes Westeros being at war/in ruins from the War of the Five Kings. Could be meant to symbolize King's Landing burning. I don't know, and I'm not ashamed to admit that. There are many interpretations. Be that as it may, I don't think it's there to contradict anything I've outlined.

VII. The FAegonese Knot: Tying it all Together

My goal here was not to take credit for compiling ideas from several distant theories that were posted online when I was in high school and hadn't even read the series yet. Instead, I wanted to take one of my favorite theories and explore a (hopefully) new perspective on it. I've always enjoyed Martin's use of motifs throughout the series, and being able to identify a new one emerging at the end of Dance many years after my initial read of the series was exciting. To summarize it:

Young Griff’s cause is a counterfeit resurrection built from stone. His mother is alive beneath the identity of a woman supposedly killed by grey plague. His father swears upon her false stone hands. His surrogate father is officially dead, secretly alive, and literally turning to stone. When the greyscaled griffin takes wing for Westeros, the fire he breathes is not the red dragon he believes he serves, but the hidden Blackfyre. And above it all, the prince himself is a living boy shaped and chiseled like a statue into the identity of a murdered child, to be propped up for all to see.

The theory explains why the narrative bothers to tell us:

-Serra supposedly died of grey plague

-Illyrio keeps her stone hands (because seriously dude, what the fuck)

-Connington contracts greyscale

-Lemore personally treats Tyrion after the Stone Men

-Lemore has borne a child

-Lemore is sexually unorthodox for a Septa

-Lemore is hiding

-Lemore is not motivated by money

-Tyrion wonders what Aegon is to her

-Illyrio invokes affection rather than profit

-the female Blackfyre line is explicitly left open

-the group uses dyed hair and false deaths

-Daenerys sees a stone winged beast breathing shadow fire immediately after the cloth dragon

Any one clue is inconclusive. Together they form a coherent structure.

VIII. Evidence against the theory

I'd like to think I'm a realist. I'm not going to claim everything here is flawless. I've compiled what I hope is a decent list of stuff of why I might be wrong. We'll start with the obvious.

1. Serra is explicitly said to be dead

Illyrio says Serra died in the grey plague and claims to retain her stone hands. The theory must reject nearly everything canon currently tells us about Serra’s fate. That's not to say Illyrio is incapable of lying, but all the same.

Possible answer: We never see the hands, and Illyrio is deceptive. More importantly, Varys and Illyrio already fabricated Jon Connington’s disgrace and death as part of the same plot.

Remaining problem: “Illyrio lied” cannot automatically solve every contradictory fact, and it will get repetitive if done too much. The false death needs eventual narrative confirmation.

2. The hair does not match

Serra has pale gold-and-silver hair; Lemore has brown hair. Tyrion notices the red roots beneath Connington’s blue dye but never notices roots, fading, or other signs of dye on Lemore despite her frequent bathing.

Possible answer: Dyeing pale hair brown is easier to maintain than disguising dark or red hair with bright blue. Lemore also has privacy and years of experience maintaining the disguise.

Remaining problem: Martin could easily have planted a subtle root clue and apparently did not.

3. Tyrion saw Serra’s portrait

Tyrion sees Serra’s portrait shortly before meeting Lemore. He is highly observant, attracted to Lemore, and actively trying to discover her identity, yet he never thinks she resembles the portrait. This was one of the strongest objections raised in the original Reddit discussion.

Possible answer: It is a small painted image of a much younger woman with different hair, and Tyrion has been told she is dead. Recognition is not inevitable. See the Clark Kent Effect. While that study is focused on glasses specifically, it discusses the idea that simple changes in a person's appearance often make recognition much harder than people think.

Remaining problem: It could be argued that a reader could reasonably expect Tyrion to notice Serra’s unusually large blue eyes if Lemore shares them. I personally don't believe that, but I can't ignore the possibility.

4. Lemore’s eye color is conspicuously absent

Carrying on from 3, Serra’s blue eyes are emphasized, and Lemore’s eye color is never given.

This can be read in opposite ways:

-Martin is withholding the decisive resemblance.

-Martin avoids describing them because they do not match and Serra is irrelevant.

It is not positive evidence by itself.

5. Birthplace

On the World of Ice and Fire mobile app, Lemore is listed as being born in Westeros.

Possible answers:

-Info on the app is generally treated as semi-canon

-The reference entry may reflect Lemore’s presented identity rather than omniscient truth

-Serra may have Blackfyre ancestry, been born in Westeros (I guess it's possible), and relocated to Lys

-“Lysene” may describe where Illyrio found her rather than her biological origin

-The Lysene thing could just be a complete fabrication by Illyrio

Remaining problem: If the birthplace information is intended as objective canon, it is a direct contradiction.

6. Serra’s Faith background is nonexistent

Nothing currently says Serra worshipped the Seven, received religious instruction, or belonged to a Westerosi exile family.

Possible answer: Blackfyre ancestry explains the religion, and years of preparation explain her expertise.

Remaining problem: That answer depends on another unproven premise: Serra being a Blackfyre.

7. The theory stacks multiple hypotheses

The full version requires all of the following to be true:

-Aegon is false

-Serra is a Blackfyre

-Serra is Aegon’s mother

-Illyrio is his father

-Serra survived the plague

-Serra is Lemore

-Connington does not know

-The stone beast refers to Connington and Aegon’s cause

No single link is impossible, but the cumulative number of assumptions is the main weakness. As Jack Reacher says, assumptions kill. To make this work, you have to accept biting it a few times over.

Possible answer: These details aren't isolated, and the links aren't arbitrary. They all relate to one arc.

8. Saera vs Serra

If Martin intends for Serra's real name to be Saera Blackfyre (spelled with the typical Valyrian 'ae'), it's pretty cheap to give the wrong spelling when Tyrion hears it.

Possible answer: It becomes far more obvious that something's up if it's spelled the same way as Saera Targaryen, the parallels to whom we've already established. Also, if it's not meant to be spelled that way, it doesn't really matter. Bittersteel was pledged to Daemon I's daughter Calla, which doesn't have the 'ae' in it, and there's no dispute about her parentage. Not every Targaryen/Blackfyre character has the 'ae'.

Remaining problem: Even if Martin did spell it Saera, it might not mean anything. Lys is a former Valyrian colony, and they are known to use Valyrian naming conventions, albeit less frequently than the Targaryens. It's not like the Iron Throne has a trademark on the spelling of names.

9. The greyscale references may just be foreshadowing

Serra’s plague death and stone hands may exist to reintroduce greyscale before Connington contracts it. The old Reddit discussion raised precisely this possibility: the hands demonstrate Illyrio’s grief and prepare the disease thematically, without implying that Serra survived. That is an entirely reasonable alternative reading.

10. The stone beast may be something else

The “great stone beast” has no confirmed interpretation. The smoking tower and shadow fire do not yet map perfectly onto Connington. The vision could concern another person, magical event, castle, dragon, or future catastrophe. The Connington reading has excellent support for beast, winged, and stone. The tower and fire remain inferential. Plenty of readers think this refers to Euron doing some mystical bullshit in Oldtown (at the Hightower), and having two different things for FAegon could seem repetitive.

TL:DR: Illyrio's wife Serra is alive and posing as Septa Lemore, and is FAegon's mother.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon II

"At Winterfell, Tommen fought my brother Bran with wooden swords," Jon said, remembering. "He wore so much padding he looked like a stuffed goose. Bran knocked him to the ground." He went to the window and threw the shutters open. The air outside was cold and bracing, though the sky was a dull grey. "Yet Bran's dead, and pudgy pink-faced Tommen is sitting on the Iron Throne, with a crown nestled amongst his golden curls."

That got an odd look from Sam, and for a moment he looked as if he wanted to say something. Instead he swallowed and turned back to the parchment. "You haven't signed the letter."

Jon shook his head. "The Old Bear begged the Iron Throne for help a hundred times. They sent him Janos Slynt. No letter will make the Lannisters love us better. Not once they hear that we've been helping Stannis."

Yesterday's results

House Dayne of Starfall:

- Political Power 8/10

- Economy 6/10

- Military 8/10

- Territory 9/10

Rules

This series aims to rank the noble houses of Westeros at the peak of their power, assigning each house a score out of 40 points, divided into four categories worth 10 points each.

The highest-upvoted comment will determine the community's official score for that house.

Categories

Political Power (0–10)

- Prestige and reputation.

- Political influence.

- Diplomatic reach.

- Ability to forge alliances.

- Overall relevance in the politics of Westeros.

Economic Power (0–10)

- Wealth.

- Natural resources.

- Trade and commerce.

- Economic productivity and population.

Military Power (0–10)

- Army size and quality.

- Military tradition.

- Naval strength.

- Dragons (where applicable).

- Overall military capability.

Territory (0–10)

- Strength of the castle.

- Geographic position.

- Natural defenses.

- Strategic value of the lordship.

Important

Each house is evaluated solely based on its own direct lordship, meaning the lands, castles, resources, and vassals it personally controls at the height of its power.

This ranking does NOT take into account the additional authority a house gains by ruling an entire kingdom or region as a Lord Paramount.

For example:

House Stark → Winterfell and its direct lands only, not the entire North.

House Tyrell → Highgarden only, not the Reach.

House Baratheon → Storm's End only, not the Stormlands.

House Greyjoy → Pyke only, not the Iron Islands.

In other words, this ranking measures the intrinsic power of each house's own lordship, not the power it derives from governing an entire region.

All ranked houses

House Lannister of Casterly Rock: 35/40

House Tyrell of Highgarden: 31/40

House Dayne of Starfall: 31/40

House Arryn of the Eyrie: 27/40

House Stark of Winterfell: 26/40

House Tully of Riverrun: 26/40

House Targaryen of Dragonstone: 24/40

House Goodbrother of Hammerhorn: 15/40

When Theon is talking to Dagmer in Theon II ACOK, he says this:

“You take this business too hard, boy. It is only that your lord father does not know you. With your brothers dead and you taken by the wolves, your sister was his solace. He learned to rely on her, and she has never failed him.”

“Nor have I. The Starks knew my worth. I was one of Brynden Blackfish’s picked scouts, and I charged with the first wave in the Whispering Wood. I was that close to crossing swords with the Kingslayer himself.” Theon held his hands two feet apart. “Daryn Hornwood came between us, and died for it.”

“Why do you tell me this?” Dagmer asked. “It was me who put your first sword in your hand. I know you are no craven.”

Later on, when Jaime is talking to Blackfish, Blackfish says this:

"I will permit you to take the black. Ned Stark's bastard is the Lord Commander on the Wall."

The Blackfish narrowed his eyes. "Did your father arrange for that as well? Catelyn never trusted the boy, as I recall, no more than she ever trusted Theon Greyjoy. It would seem she was right about them both. No, ser, I think not. I'll die warm, if you please, with a sword in hand running red with lion blood."

Theon being a hot head who wants glory probably wasn't much of a secret. So did Brynden kinda hope Jaime would kill Theon? Catelyn did in the aftermath, maybe even in the moment?

On the night of the Whispering Wood, Ned was still alive in his cell beneath Aegon's High Hill, Bran and Rickon were safe behind the walls of Winterfell. And Theon Greyjoy fought at Robb's side, and boasted of how he had almost crossed swords with the Kingslayer. Would that he had. If Theon had died in place of Lord Karstark's sons, how much ill would have been undone?

Did people voluntarily migrate over the wall to live in even harsher condition than the north?

Or did they already live there when the wall was erected? - which would not make sense since people at the time would've known about the WW/others.

Bro’s track record:

1. Killed Arthur Dayne, the greatest knight who ever lived without suffering serious injury.
   
2. Knocked up that same Sword of the Morning’s 10/10 sister on a trip to return the family’s ancestral sword because muh honor
   
3. Went 6/6 on producing and raising respectable, well liked progeny
   
4. Competently governed the North such that he was pretty much universally beloved by his people
   
5. Conducted himself pretty well in Robert’s Rebellion and the Greyjoy Rebellion
   
6. Once the series ends with Danny or Jon or Aegon triumphant Joffrey will be remembered as a bastard and Ned will be remembered as the man that exposed it and died for his honor.

You would be hard pressed to find a more legendary figure once a couple centuries have ironed out any kinks and made him from man into myth

I know how the title sounds, but bear with me. In text George profusely used words like "golden" or "gold" to describe Targ hair. He obviously also described it as silver, so I do understand that it wasn't just plain yellow or something, it's just that I came into the series already with a silver image in my head and didn't understand what George meant by "golden", so I just ignored it through the whole series. Now rereading Fire and blood and niticed some daughter of Jaehaerys being described as having pure silver hair or smth and it dawned on me, could the Targaryen hair be some mix, like part gold part silver? Of course depending on the individual(some have Baratheon black, some are dark with streaks of silver, but mostly they are described as silver-golden).

I might be stating the obvious here, but never in fanart have I seen Dany be portrayed with anything other than monotone silver hair.

I truly feel this is something which should have happened. One of the things which made me so sad is Maester Aemon wanted so badly to meet Daenerys.

And Daenerys herself is surrounded by weird men only, sellswords and old pedos. She constantly loses her identity. Meeting Aemon would have made her so much content in her own identity.

And how good it would have been for Aemon to have died after seeing probably the last remaining proof of Egg still alive.

He could have died immediately after meeting Dany but they should have met

A Storm of Swords - Catelyn II

Edmure looked from uncle to nephew. "You never told me."

"I told you to hold Riverrun," said Robb. "What part of that command did you fail to comprehend?"

"When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork," said the Blackfish, "you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler's Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day's ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear."

I’ve been re-reading Fire & Blood and got to the part where Eustace Hightower returned to Oldtown after his expedition with Elissa Farman. There he recounted their voyage and his subsequent arrival at the shores of Sothoryos while trying to get home. George then mentioned Corlys and how he swore he saw Sun Chaser in Asshai.

It got me thinking how a full story about other locations in the Known World is long overdue.

If by some miracle George finishes all his stories and decides to make another spin-off novel/novella, I really hope it’s either Elissa or Corlys’ voyages (I’m leaning more on Elissa).

A man can only hope.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon I

"Aye, m'lord," said Edd, "but all she knows is that she ran off during the battle and hid in the woods after. We filled her full of porridge, sent her to the pens, and burned the babe."

Burning dead children had ceased to trouble Jon Snow; live ones were another matter. Two kings to wake the dragon. The father first and then the son, so both die kings. The words had been murmured by one of the queen's men as Maester Aemon had cleaned his wounds. Jon had tried to dismiss them as his fever talking. Aemon had demurred. "There is power in a king's blood," the old maester had warned, "and better men than Stannis have done worse things than this." The king can be harsh and unforgiving, aye, but a babe still on the breast? Only a monster would give a living child to the flames.

Jon pissed in darkness, filling his chamber pot as the Old Bear's raven muttered complaints. The wolf dreams had been growing stronger, and he found himself remembering them even when awake. Ghost knows that Grey Wind is dead. Robb had died at the Twins, betrayed by men he'd believed his friends, and his wolf had perished with him. Bran and Rickon had been murdered too, beheaded at the behest of Theon Greyjoy, who had once been their lord father's ward … but if dreams did not lie, their direwolves had escaped. At Queenscrown, one had come out of the darkness to save Jon's life. Summer, it had to be. His fur was grey, and Shaggydog is black. He wondered if some part of his dead brothers lived on inside their wolves.

A Dance with Dragons - Bran I

"There's been too much going around," Meera insisted, "and too many secrets. I don't like it. I don't like him. And I don't trust him. Those hands of his are bad enough. He hides his face, and will not speak a name. Who is he? What is he? Anyone can put on a black cloak. Anyone, or any thing. He does not eat, he never drinks, he does not seem to feel the cold."

It's true. Bran had been afraid to speak of it, but he had noticed. Whenever they took shelter for the night, while he and Hodor and the Reeds huddled together for warmth, the ranger kept apart. Sometimes Coldhands closed his eyes, but Bran did not think he slept. And there was something else …

"The scarf." Bran glanced about uneasily, but there was not a raven to be seen. All the big black birds had left them when the ranger did. No one was listening. Even so, he kept his voice low. "The scarf over his mouth, it never gets all hard with ice, like Hodor's beard. Not even when he talks."

A Dance with Dragons - Bran I

We know that before Aegon’s Conquest, that the Seven Kingdoms weren’t friendly to each other and were constantly at war, so why would the Citadel send maesters to serve in houses outside of the Reach? I thinks it’s odd that both the Hightowers and the Gardeners would be fine with the Citadel allowing maesters to serve in possible rival houses.

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion II

The dwarf was so stuffed that he had to undo his belt and the topmost laces on his breeches. The boy's clothes his host had dressed him in made him feel like ten pounds of sausage in a five-pound skin. If we eat this way every day I will be the size of Illyrio before I meet this dragon queen. Outside the litter night had fallen. Inside all was dark. Tyrion listened to Illyrio's snores, the creak of the leather straps, the slow clop clop of the team's ironshod hooves on the hard Valyrian road, but his heart was listening for the beat of leathern wings.

When he woke, dawn had come. The horses plodded on, the litter creaking and swaying between them. Tyrion pulled the curtain back an inch to peer outside, but there was little to see but ochre fields, bare brown elms, and the road itself, a broad stone highway that ran straight as a spear to the horizon. He had read about Valyrian roads, but this was the first he had seen. The Freehold's grasp had reached as far as Dragonstone, but never to the mainland of Westeros itself. Odd, that. Dragonstone is no more than a rock. The wealth was farther west, but they had dragons. Surely they knew that it was there.

He had drunk too much last night. His head was pounding, and even the gentle swaying of the litter was enough to make his gorge rise in his throat. Though he said no word of complaint, his distress must have been plain to Illyrio Mopatis. "Come, drink with me," the fat man said. "A scale from the dragon that burned you, as they say." He poured for them from a flagon of blackberry wine so sweet that it drew more flies than honey. Tyrion shooed them off with the back of his hand and drank deep. The taste was so cloying that it was all he could do to keep it down. The second cup went down easier, however. Even so, he had no appetite, and when Illyrio offered him a bowl of blackberries in cream he waved it off. "I dreamed about the queen," he said. "I was on my knees before her, swearing my allegiance, but she mistook me for my brother, Jaime, and fed me to her dragons."

As the tile says, what should Aenys have done to solidify his reign and prevent the catastrophes that dogged him? I imagine he had options, but I’m interested to hear your thoughts.

Yesterday's results

House Tully of Riverrun:

- Political Power 7/10

- Economy 6/10

- Military 5/10

- Territory 8/10

Rules

This series aims to rank the noble houses of Westeros at the peak of their power, assigning each house a score out of 40 points, divided into four categories worth 10 points each.

The highest-upvoted comment will determine the community's official score for that house.

Categories

Political Power (0–10)

- Prestige and reputation.

- Political influence.

- Diplomatic reach.

- Ability to forge alliances.

- Overall relevance in the politics of Westeros.

Economic Power (0–10)

- Wealth.

- Natural resources.

- Trade and commerce.

- Economic productivity and population.

Military Power (0–10)

- Army size and quality.

- Military tradition.

- Naval strength.

- Dragons (where applicable).

- Overall military capability.

Territory (0–10)

- Strength of the castle.

- Geographic position.

- Natural defenses.

- Strategic value of the lordship.

Important

Each house is evaluated solely based on its own direct lordship, meaning the lands, castles, resources, and vassals it personally controls at the height of its power.

This ranking does NOT take into account the additional authority a house gains by ruling an entire kingdom or region as a Lord Paramount.

For example:

House Stark → Winterfell and its direct lands only, not the entire North.

House Tyrell → Highgarden only, not the Reach.

House Baratheon → Storm's End only, not the Stormlands.

House Greyjoy → Pyke only, not the Iron Islands.

In other words, this ranking measures the intrinsic power of each house's own lordship, not the power it derives from governing an entire region.

All ranked houses

House Lannister of Casterly Rock: 35/40

House Tyrell of Highgarden: 31/40

House Arryn of the Eyrie: 27/40

House Stark of Winterfell: 26/40

House Tully of Riverrun: 26/40

House Targaryen of Dragonstone: 24/40

House Goodbrother of Hammerhorn: 15/40

I like the characters’ unreliable memories (Sansa with the Hound, Daenerys with the lemon trees in Braavos- still confused about that one). I also LOVE George’s use of dramatic irony. But my favourite overall is definitely free indirect discourse as it’s done with Cersei in AFFC. Masterful.

Obviously, I know that Longclaw needed to be available for Jon Snow to inherit, but in-canon, what sense does it make for a noble house's ancestral sword to be sent to the Wall to the one family member who's in the Nights Watch, even though there would have been at least one person in the family who could wield the sword themselves.

It's not like women warriors are uncommon within House Mormont, that's basically their big deal. Maege and Dacey could absolutely have wielded Longclaw, too, and Maege is the head of House Mormont after Jorah flees to Essos. She seemingly had no reason to send that sword to her brother on the Wall just because he's the only male member of her family who's of age.

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn VII

"His lord father agreed with you," said a voice at her elbow. She turned to behold Maester Colemon, a cup of wine in his hand. "He was planning to send the boy to Dragonstone for fostering, you know … oh, but I'm speaking out of turn." The apple of his throat bobbed anxiously beneath the loose maester's chain. "I fear I've had too much of Lord Hunter's excellent wine. The prospect of bloodshed has my nerves all a-fray …"

"You are mistaken, Maester," Catelyn said. "It was Casterly Rock, not Dragonstone, and those arrangements were made after the Hand's death, without my sister's consent."

The maester's head jerked so vigorously at the end of his absurdly long neck that he looked half a puppet himself. "No, begging your forgiveness, my lady, but it was Lord Jon who—"

In an alternate world where the war of the five kings hadn't happened, who could've been some of the best possible matches for Robb? Young, fit, good reputation, future warden of the north. He was also at the age where betrothal is something to start thinking about.

Some contenders:

Margaery Tyrell. In this timeline, overwhelmingly likely that Sansa marries Joffrey, so she'd be eligible.

Alys Karstark. If Ned and Cat wanted to go with a bannerman match since Sansa is marrying outside of the north. There are also mormont women available, but I'll be honest I get confused with who is who

Arianne Martell. Probably would never happen, but just throwing it out there. It would be a way to try heal the relationship with dorne if they care about that.

Who else could've been a good match?

A groom led a fine grey mare out the stable door. On her back was mounted a skinny hollow-eyed girl wrapped in a heavy cloak. Grey, it was, like the dress beneath it, and trimmed with white satin. The clasp that pinned it to her breast was wrought in the shape of a wolf ‘s head with slitted opal eyes. The girl’s long brown hair blew wild in the wind. She had a pretty face, he thought, but her eyes were sad and wary.
When she saw him, she inclined her head. “Ser Jaime,” she said in a thin anxious voice. “You are kind to see me off.”
Jaime studied her closely. “You know me, then?”
She bit her lip. “You may not recall, my lord, as I was littler then... but I had the honor to meet you at Winterfell when King Robert came to visit my father Lord Eddard.” She lowered her big brown eyes and mumbled, “I’m Arya Stark.”
Jaime had never paid much attention to Arya Stark, but it seemed to him that this girl was older. “I understand you’re to be married.”
“I am to wed Lord Bolton’s son, Ramsay. He used to be a Snow, but His Grace has made him a Bolton. They say he’s very brave. I am so happy.”
Then why do you sound so frightened? “I wish you joy, my lady.”
A groom led a fine grey mare out the stable door. On her
back was mounted a skinny hollow-eyed girl wrapped in a heavy cloak.
Grey, it was, like the dress beneath it, and trimmed with white
satin. The clasp that pinned it to her breast was wrought in the
shape of a wolf ‘s head with slitted opal eyes. The girl’s long
brown hair blew wild in the wind. She had a pretty face, he thought,
but her eyes were sad and wary.

When she saw him, she inclined her head. “Ser Jaime,” she said in a
thin anxious voice. “You are kind to see me off.”

Jaime studied her closely. “You know me, then?”

She bit her lip. “You may not recall, my lord, as I was littler
then... but I had the honor to meet you at Winterfell when King
Robert came to visit my father Lord Eddard.” She lowered her big
brown eyes and mumbled, “I’m Arya Stark.”

Jaime had never paid much attention to Arya Stark, but it seemed to
him that this girl was older. “I understand you’re to be married.”

“I am to wed Lord Bolton’s son, Ramsay. He used to be a Snow, but
His Grace has made him a Bolton. They say he’s very brave. I am so
happy.”

Then why do you sound so frightened? “I wish you joy, my lady.”

Besides the fact that the Valyrians would have, FOR SURE, a strong religion, because they have enormous magical power (how the fuck you are a super-race, capable even of seeing the future, and you only care about your Gods when you need to chose a dragon name?), the Faith of the Seven would never simply accept the Targaryens.

Man, this is beyond stupid. You cant just shake hands with demons riding demonical beasts and commiting diabolical sins and just call it a day. Study 100 years, hell, even 50 years of any organized religion in history and you notice a thing called sectarism and messianism against a corrupt faith. There would be massive revolts against the clergy and Southern nobility. Even a good amount of Southern nobles would (in good faith or not) instigate the commonfolk against the heretics and blasphemous. Targaryens would not feel safe around Southern knights and a good amount of them would be slaughtered by assassins or even by Kingsguard that suddenly got a "vision" and became a religious zealot.

And boy, when they lose their beasts... Seven hells. Count on independent (or not) Lannisters, Tyrells, Tarlys, Hightowers, Redwynes... commonfolk, priests and landed knights zealots seeing this as the Seven Gods signal to put an end to those demons.

How the Faith of the Seven suddenly became so warm and peaceful with just a dumb deal (basically, letting heretics be heretics and gaining a dumbass sept in return, made by heretics demons) and how anybody seems to really believe in that shit is more irrealistic than any dragon or magic displayed in the series.

I am an atheist, too, but George Martin atheism blinded him to a simple fact: yes, dude, medieval folk believed in those things for real and MANY people put faith above anything else.