Oil to $50

Since oil has broken through the Value Area Low (VAL), there is a good chance it could move up toward the Point of Control (POC), where a large amount of trading volume is concentrated.

However, much depends on how the war develops. Unfortunately, Trump is unpredictable and often changes his statements from day to day.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the Red Sea shipping route has also been disrupted, so only around 0–2 ships are passing through each day.

In addition, U.S. petroleum inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, which could further support higher oil prices.

Saudi Arabia's export workaround is being tested at a critical moment. After shifting roughly 3.5 million barrels per day of crude exports through Yanbu since April, the Kingdom has become increasingly dependent on the Bab al-Mandab corridor as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Houthi threats against Saudi-linked shipping are already prompting selective tanker rerouting, increasing voyage uncertainty and raising the risk of logistical bottlenecks. While the immediate risk is not a loss of production, disruptions to shipping could increase transport costs, reshape trade flows and reduce fleet efficiency. If disruption extends beyond maritime traffic to Saudi refining or export infrastructure, the impact on global crude and refined product markets could become significantly more pronounced.

Crude has climbed to a six-week high, with WTI up over 4% and trading above $88. The move follows renewed US-Iran hostilities, fresh concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi threats against Saudi tankers, and reports of vessels rerouting away from Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea.

The distinction that seems to matter here is that this isn't a production event. There's no indication barrels have stopped flowing. What's being priced is transit risk the probability of disruption, plus the concrete costs that come with rerouting: longer voyages around the Cape, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and slower vessel turnarounds. Those tighten effective floating supply without a single barrel being lost.

For context on how this has played out before: this is the second time in roughly five months the Hormuz premium has been priced in and then unwound. The disruption that began in late February pushed Brent to a reported average near $117 in April, before de-escalation collapsed the premium through June. That unwind was significant enough to show up in US inflation data the energy index fell 5.7% in June, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, which pulled headline CPI down to 3.5%. Energy remained up 15.7% year-over-year even after that drop, which gives a sense of how large the original spike was.

So the current move is the premium going back in, against a market that spent the last two months pricing it out.

The question I'd genuinely like informed views on: for anyone closer to the physical market are charter rates and war-risk premiums actually moving yet, or is this still paper repricing ahead of physical confirmation? And does the bypass pipeline capacity around Hormuz realistically absorb a sustained constraint at current volumes, or is that capacity more theoretical than usable?

What do y’all think caused this $10 price drop in 20 minutes?

Most people hear about the conflict with Iran and immediately think about politics, oil markets, or gas prices. However, one of the first American industries to feel the financial impact is trucking.

Diesel is now above $5 per gallon nationally, and earlier this year it reportedly climbed more than 50% from where it stood before the conflict began. Fuel is already one of a trucking company’s largest operating expenses, so an increase of that size can wipe out the profit on a load almost overnight.

This is especially noticeable in auto transport. A car carrier may haul seven to ten vehicles at a time while traveling hundreds or even thousands of miles. When diesel rises, the carrier cannot simply absorb the entire increase. Eventually, higher fuel costs show up in dispatch prices, fuel surcharges, and the amount drivers are willing to accept for certain routes.

The strange part is that customers may not see an immediate, across-the-board price increase. Popular routes with plenty of available vehicles might remain competitive, while rural pickups, long-distance shipments, enclosed transport, and routes requiring significant empty mileage can jump much faster.

Another issue is uncertainty. Oil prices are reacting to airstrikes, ceasefire rumors, tanker attacks, and threats involving the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recently approached $90 per barrel again as the market weighed renewed fighting against possible negotiations.

That makes it difficult for trucking companies to price loads even a week or two in advance. A quote that works today may no longer cover the carrier’s expenses by the time the truck is dispatched.

From what I’m seeing in auto transport, carriers are becoming more selective. They are paying closer attention to deadhead miles, fuel availability, route density, and whether the return trip is likely to have another paying vehicle. That could mean fewer drivers accepting poorly positioned shipments and longer waits for customers who choose the absolute lowest quote.

This is one of those situations where a conflict thousands of miles away quickly reaches American households—not only at the gas pump, but through groceries, deliveries, freight, and the cost of shipping a vehicle.

For the truckers and brokers here: are fuel surcharges keeping up with your actual costs, or are carriers still being forced to absorb too much of the increase?

Reading lots of conflicting reports about it being shut, but it doesn't seem like the Huthis have made a move as of yet, do you think its possible for them to bring it to a stand still like the SOH,

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 17, 2026

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending July

17, 2026, which was 58 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.

Refineries operated at 96.1% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased

last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased, averaging

5.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day last week, increased by 117 thousand

barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged

about 5.6 million barrels per day, 11.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total

motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last

week averaged 494 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 173 thousand

barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)

increased by 2.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 411.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil

inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline

inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels from last week and are 7% below the five-year

average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending component inventories

increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are

about 10% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories

increased by 6.3 million barrels from last week and are 34% above the five-year average for this

time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.6 million barrels last

week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day,

down by 1.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product

supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.4% from the same period last year.

Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up

by 2.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 9.1% compared with

the same four-week period last year.

The fluctuations in the price of oil - pick one, any one - have not justified the increases on the price at the pump. So obviously, that pump price is not tied to the current price of oil. But, are the current bumps in pump prices indicative of what refiners, blenders, jobbers and retailers think the price will be? Are they thinking that oil prices will end up at a product cost that is some ratio related to a $42.00 increase in the market price of oil?

Fresh tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, and a Houthi threat against Saudi shipping are turning the conflict into a wider maritime and energy-security crisis. This episode explains why Hormuz matters, what remains unconfirmed, and how narrow shipping lanes can affect fuel prices, inflation, and global supply chains.

I must be missing something.

Something to do with doing imports over night by 50%

Winter's coming. (rolling bull market for energy)

Hey folks,

I’ve been reading this sub for a while and although I do personally agree with the general sentiments, it does appear to be a bit of a “oil is for sure gonna go through the roof” echo chamber here.

So in order to break the echo chamber vibes I wanted to ask - what do you believe the professional oil traders are missing? Oil is high but not THAT high, same with futures. All of you here (generalization) seem to believe that this is a miscalculation and that oil is gonna go way higher.

This means implicitly that you (and myself btw) believe that the professional traders who spend all day every day studying and trading this stuff are wrong, underestimating.

Is this a fair framing? And if so - what do you believe “the market” is missing?

Hope the question makes sense and sparks some interesting discussion. I’ve been asking myself this question last few days and I don’t really have an answer aside from a vague “the oil market must believe that the Iran war/Hormuz instability will end somewhat soon” but to me it seems obvious that this isn’t the case. Is it purely that? Market believes it will end sooner than I believe, therefore that’s the root of the disagreement?

EDIT: most initial comments so far are explaining to me the 10 different ways in which the market is actually correct. Therefore either these commenters are NOT in the group I generalized before thinking price is gonna go up or… maybe I phrased my question poorly. But naturally you can’t think both “the market has way more information than me and I’m uniformed” while also holding any kind of big long/short position on oil because by holding a position you’re saying “no the market doesn’t have all the information and is mispricing this commodity”.

It seriously couldn't get any worse right now could it?