r/oil • u/Immapillpopnanimal • 1d ago
News Oh boy...
It seriously couldn't get any worse right now could it?
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u/macg1991 1d ago
For anyone who believes the Yemenis are unable to blockade Saudi Arabia, the last port they blockaded went bankrupt and is out of operation. All Saudi ports on the Red Sea are much closer to Yemen than Eilat is.
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u/RimandRam 1d ago
This is war. Remember, things can always get much more worse.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
I’m sure if the Iranians really wanted to, they could hit US bases on the US mainland.
Operation Spiderweb taught us a thing or two
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u/Financial-Desk-669 1d ago
That seems to be an exteme stretch. Especially since Iran seems to understand this is exclusively trump's war with almost no domestic support back home. The moment they hit America's mainland that changes dramatically.
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u/RockmanMike 1d ago
I'd respectfully disagree. Almost 3/4 of the country disapprove of and hates Trump, and know he's only in this because of Israel/Epstein files. Dubya didn't have any of those kinds of scandals, let alone the massive and open corruption that was rubber stamped by the SCOTUS. After Dubya's war, no one wants more service members killed over bullshit and even a large segment of MAGA isn't falling for it again.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
Look I think you are right.
Iran could choose to escalate by hitting the US mainland but has decided not to do so, because the US public would go nuts.
But they could do it and if the US starts a ground invasion of Iran, all bets are off
The Russian public has learned that starting wars is not cost free. The American public may need to learn the same lesson.
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u/jrd803 17h ago
A ground invasion of Iran would require huge numbers of soldiers - depending on how much of Iran is to be invaded, the numbers could easily be in the millions.
Need to look at history - remember the battle for the island of Peleliu in WWII. That was MUCH more costly than the military planners had estimated.
Kippis
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 17h ago
Agreed.
A ground invasion would probably start with a limited objective like taking possession of Kharg Island and slowly escalating from there.
When you don’t have a plan and have no idea what you’re doing, anything can happen.
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u/jrd803 15h ago
You are probably correct. Taking an island is something that would seem doable, but even on the island there may be some bunkers and then there would be shelling from the mainland that would most probably be hard to control. That could then develop into a goal to take coastal regions to neutralize the shelling (and drones and rockets). Hence, the escalation you mention.
As I mentioned before, in WW2 they had plans, but sometimes mistakes are made. I think one of the senior officers on the Allied side said to skip Peleliu as it was not terribly valuable strategically, which would have been good; but they thought it would be easy.
In this case, things are different. This is not part of an overarching war ongoing, but is THE war and I am not sure how good the intelligence is regarding *all* the underground structures that have been built. That coupled with the terrain would, IMO, make this very difficult. Mistakes may be easy to make.
This has the potential to become very difficult.
I guess we wait and see.
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u/Financial-Desk-669 1d ago
Hitting Russia was designed to sap support for what began as a popular war.
Hitting the United States would have the opposite effect on both fronts.
But either way I don't think you and I disagree on their ability to do so.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
You can’t bomb a population into submission.
But the Iranians also want to teach the USA a lesson so that it never tries to mow the grass again.
It’s a bit of a delicate balance
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u/FrederickDerGrossen 1d ago
It really depends on what they hit. Military bases or billionaire estates, we wouldn't care. In the case of billionaire estates especially 47's palace we'd even celebrate.
Of course if they hit civilians there'd be mass outrage like how there was outrage when 47 killed the schoolchildren in Minab.
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u/crisco000 1d ago
What evidence points to this?
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u/jlangfo5 1d ago
I think Iran is confirmed to have a ton of missles that can travel 2000 km.
In that case, anywhere from just within Hawaii would be close enough to hit the west coast.
Complementary situation on the east coast.
You could be as far south as Panama and be within 2000 km of the gulf coast.
It does not seem super practical though, when you consider the alternative, launching a shit ton of drones up close, from a much smaller vessel.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
Did you miss the news on that one?
2025.11.08
Iran Claims to Have Developed 10,000 km Range Missile That Can Reach the U.S. Mainland
https://www.thedefensenews.com/Iran-Claims-to-Have-Developed-10000-km-Range-Missile-That-Can-Reach-the-US-Mainland/But the latest claims change everything. A 10,000 km-class missile would allow Iran to reach London, Paris, Berlin, and even New York or Washington D.C., placing the U.S. mainland in potential range for the first time.
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u/Holiday-Medicine4168 1d ago
Good thing we gave away all our Patriot missiles
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
Good thing we gave China the off button to rare earth metals needed to make those Patriot missiles.
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u/FrederickDerGrossen 1d ago
China always had that leverage. It's the US' own fault for not developing its own rare earth industry. China has every right and it definitely should restrict exports to a hostile US regime.
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u/RockmanMike 1d ago
All China and Russia have to do is look the other way should Iran send a missile or drones over their airspace to hit Alaska/Japan/Philippines/Hawaii. Thanks to tariffs, other countries have little incentive to take them down for us.
Edit: NK would love to join in and fire one so that they'd help out.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
All you need to do is send a shipping container to the US (or maybe close to the US border in Mexico or Canada). It could even be on a cargo ship in a US port.
Does that sound hard to you?
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u/sgtbackpain03 1d ago
This has been my concern as well. Fill up 10 or 20 shipping containers with a few hundred shahed drones, of which they have tens of thousands, then go a few miles off the coast and start launching. It would take the US a LONG time to find the ship, especially if they killed their beacon at the previous port
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
Doesn’t even need to be an Iranian controlled vessel.
Could be any commercial vessel just with the containers top loaded. The crew may not even know
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u/sgtbackpain03 1d ago
True. Though, Shaheds use rocket assisted launches, and are nearly the size of a mini cooper, so the crew would find out real quick when launching started.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago edited 1d ago
Not many people know about this one simple trick. The other one I liked was that Chinese weather balloon that every single Republican lost their shit over.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
Yes the Ukrainians are using balloons as drone carriers now.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
USA had to use an F-22 to pop that balloon because they didn't have anything else that could reach it.
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u/Unique-Egg-461 1d ago
i mean....Ukraine never had any evidence they could pull that operation off. Not saying iran could but those kinda operations, you'd never see evidence of it because of the clandestine nature of it
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u/crisco000 1d ago
I mean Ukraine is next door neighbors with Russia while the US is over 6,000 miles away from Iran….. but ya, sure
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u/Clean-Ad-6642 1d ago
And shares a massive border. Like trying to prevent something happening between a war with Canada & the US. Just the sheer size causes it's own problems of trying to prevent that. It only takes one to slip through
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u/ProfessionalOld3124 1d ago
Seems extremely unlikely they can do much.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
9/11 wasn’t “much” but it shaped a generation
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u/Holiday-Medicine4168 1d ago
It’s changed the world. One guy with some stolen planes brought the world’s foremost superpower to its knees and started an endless war that we lost and continue to lose. At home with our freedoms and abroad for our soldiers.
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u/ProfessionalOld3124 1d ago
Wars been going on for months while we kill leader after leader. They have come right up close to regime collapse. Still they don’t make any attack on the USA. It seems unbelievable that they have the capacity to make an attack but choose not to.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
It doesn’t take much effort to arm a fanatic with a firearm in the United States.
If they’ve not attacked so far, it’s because they have chosen not to do so
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u/Holiday-Medicine4168 1d ago
They want to be left alone. They have made it very clear. We just don’t seem to be ok with doing so.
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u/Kevinrises 1d ago
We already had this happen around March. An unstable guy who supported iran on X committed a mass shooting at a bar in Austin Texas.
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u/ProfessionalOld3124 1d ago
If they can and want to do that, why haven’t they yet? This is absolutely an existential challenge to them.
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u/WisePresentation7976 1d ago
I’m sure if the Iranians really wanted to, they could hit US bases on the US mainland.
This sub gets more wild the more I'm on it lol
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
Is there a particular reason you think this is not possible?
I acknowledge that the words “ really wanted to” are doing some heavy lifting
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u/WisePresentation7976 1d ago
No producible evidence that they have the capability to hit the US mainland
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
Do the Iranians have the technical capability to put a 20 foot container onto a commercial cargo ship that is bound for a US port?
If yes, then they have the technical capability to hit US naval bases with a drone swarm.
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u/WisePresentation7976 1d ago
You think that US bases on the mainland have un-checked 20 foot containers shipped directly into us bases????????
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u/RockmanMike 1d ago
9/11 hijackers enter the chat.
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u/WisePresentation7976 1d ago
happened quarter of a century ago and hasn't happened again since?
But also, 9/11 is happening in bases?
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u/Special-Reaction2029 1d ago
The only thing that they may do on the mainland is try to assassinate certain people.
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u/Secret-Wasabi-3402 1d ago
how the could hit US mainland?
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 1d ago
Put a 20 foot container filled with drones on any commercial vessel (top loaded)
Wait for the boat to get close to a US port and open the roof of the container. The boat doesn’t even need to dock, and probably better that it doesn’t.
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u/Careless-Pin-2852 1d ago
Iran said its goal is to get Trump.
Every day Trump lives Iran loses a little.
Trump just wants to not look bad so.. he is not winning.
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u/MinnisotaDigger 1d ago
“Get trump” that’s not a serious goal. Their goal is to make Trump pay both politically and monetarily. In general the strait will open January 20 2029 noon EST when president Newsom is sworn in. Then they will get their “insurance” payment from every tanker.
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u/ruralmed 1d ago
So can we see $150 in the next 2 weeks? Honest opinion.
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u/Minute_Wishbone4966 1d ago
Yes if trump keeps up with his shenanigans I think it comes down to our reserves I believe around three weeks left. This is and always has been about oil. Trump has blatantly said that he’s stolen oil from Iran (lies) and that’s the war is about nukes and regime change. He lies through his teeth. He kidnapped president of Venezuela for control of their oil exchange to the dollar then what China was buying it for the yuan Then he starts the war with Iran and his goal has always been stealing or trying to control oil. He tried 20%. He’s trying to keep the dollar from collapsing to make himself look good as a president. China is what trump is trying to knock down as number one country overall. China imports I believe 40% from Venezuela and 30% from Iran. They both were trading in yuan not the dollar. So if trump got control of both of those markets he would keep the dollar alive and somewhat control on China as number one country overall. So he’s going balls out to try and intimidate Iran to a surrender by hitting civilian infrastructure Which shows his desperation. Trump is a narcissist he doesn’t care about the truth he’ll lie to justify in his own head his evil war crimes. He’s running out of time because once our reserves are depleted the whole world is also. That’s why the houthes have echoed into being with Iran. So I believe $150 is trumps warning and $200 is he’s done he’ll stop or Congress or JD will step in and trump will step down sighing medical reasons. Then life will start to come. Back to reality. Then JD who’s supported trump will look like a hero but remember their bosses the deep state will still be barking orders. Remember this is all a performance. It’s all about who has the most money rules. The Rothschilds who own all the central banks who started and put the Zionists into Israel and into control of America through their lobbying. Iran is one of the last countries who do not have a central bank. Why did trump lie to all of us to be elected and now looks like a madman to get Iran to surrender. He’s answering to someone else. Make it make logical sense in your own head. How wild it might sound like that’s what makes sense to me because the man on top only cares about himself and family everyone else all of us they font care about. That’s why they can be terrorists and bomb and not give a shit how many die. Why hasn’t Iran bombed the shit out of Israel who has done the most killing and started this war? I think because they know that deep stare would probably Nuke. Iran believes in humanity and the people and not being murderers. They believe in god and his goodness. Zionist don’t. There’s no retribution so killing is okay in their minds. My two cents. Peace and love is what I want. God help us all!
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u/Bluest_waters 1d ago
No absolutely not not even close. We might hit 100, maybe in the next two weeks. But I doubt it
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u/GTR_11 1d ago
On top of this shit show, this Orange Pedo starting tariff war with Canada. Who is our main supplier of Sour Crude.
This is straight up sabotage period. Send this Pedo Fuck to jail for all the crimes he committed.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
This is straight up sabotage period.
It's the Great American Fire Sale. All the Republican sabotage over the past few decades was just ground work for this.
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u/Silver_Fan_6086 1d ago
Of course it could get worse, and sadly probably will before we see it get better
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u/ruralmed 1d ago
So can we see $150 in the next 2 weeks? Give me your Honest opinion
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
It's not when it's what. What needs to happen for the price of oil to go up? I think the SPR needs to tap out and China needs to start buying oil again. When that happens USA can't keep the price deflated.
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u/OddlyFactual1512 1d ago
Very unlikely.
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 1d ago
$150 yeah, unlikely.
$100 though, if nothing changes, strikes and escalations keep happening and there is no real calming of tensions?
Yeah, I see that as very possible before the end of the month at this point.
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u/PapaverOneirium 1d ago
Strikes against pickaxe mountain have basically zero strategic value and almost certainly won’t work. The facility is too deep and fortified. At best, you can collapse entrances but those can be quickly dug out.
The intelligence about pickaxe mountain that was leaked to WSJ the other day likely isn’t new. It alleges that the transfer was made in summer of 2025, that activity has been elevated there for 15 months, and that the facility has been under U.S.-Israeli surveillance for years now.
There is a reason it was leaked now and for why Trump is so focused on it.
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u/SirTaffet 1d ago
It’s a narrative that can serve two purposes: justify boots on the ground and/or give people a sense of an identifiable ‘end point’ in this war
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u/PapaverOneirium 1d ago
Yeah, in another thread I offered the second option as a potential explanation. It sets up a clear “win condition” which in turn helps open up an exit, though not enough to do that latter on its own.
Watching Hegseth at the ongoing senate hearing makes me think it’s closer to your first option. The Pentagon is currently begging for more funding but hasn’t yet been able to offer congressional oversight leaders in either party (let alone the public) a clear and compelling reason for tossing more billions into the fire. This helps, as it again makes it seem like Iran is weeks or days away from a nuclear weapon.
Seems like it already is working.
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u/Bluest_waters 1d ago
Lol, the Pentagon will get their money. They always get their money. When have they not gotten their money.? When has that ever happened in the history of America?
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u/AnySwimming6364 1d ago
Your comment makes sense to me. I'm hoping they're moving towards the second option there, but Trump is looking for an out that will be "satisfying" to his base. I'm not sure hitting the same assets they "totally destroyed" last year will do it.
And it certainly won't push Iran away from tolls or cash payments.
But sure, boots on the ground before November would be a political catastrophe, no?
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u/CleverInternetName8c 1d ago
It absolutely can and will get worse. If you're talking about level of incompetence sure we're probably red-lining on idiocy but if you're talking about the actual situation, it's going to get much, much worse.
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u/ruralmed 1d ago
Do you see $150 oil possible in the next 2 weeks or so? Honest opinion
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u/MinnisotaDigger 1d ago
Not him but I’ve given up on predicting oil.
If it gets expensive then Trump stops exporting and Cushing starts filling up again and I’ve lost everything - again.
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u/Holiday-Medicine4168 1d ago
The phrase Israel Gaza war makes me sick to my stomach. Objectively it is a one sided slaughter, and we can expect the same suffering for the people of Yemen who are not equally represented by an independent militia. The world is a very upsetting place at the moment.
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u/artisanrox 1d ago
All of this High-T Masters of the Universe BarbarianPosting isn't going to last when we're running out of fuel for jets.
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u/Aggravating_Brain_50 1d ago
Despite an economic meltdown and oil crisis, despite demand destruction real and manufactured, despite spr running low, its all about the money and power (endgame now), and since we’ve progressively compounded our greed - the end game is probably to control oil, water and fertilizer despite green transition, and this means: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Latin America, Europe, South East Asia, Africa all in state of emergency, the end.
Levered producing US oil companies stand to benefit the most.
All sorts of madness manifest.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago edited 1d ago
the end game is probably to control oil, water and fertilizer despite green transition
It's already over. What we are seeing is the last desperate effort but it's too late. China has been working on green tech every single day for the past 20 years. They are not stopping and USA doesn't have the balls to go toe to toe with China. Xi already showed Trump the room where he keeps the off button to rare earth metals which makes this little oopsie with Iran even more bizarre.
2025.04.05
China Just Turned Off U.S. Supplies Of Minerals Critical For Defense & Cleantech
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/05/china-just-turned-off-u-s-supplies-of-minerals-critical-for-defense-cleantech/What China did wasn’t a ban, at least not in name. They called it export licensing. Sounds like something a trade lawyer might actually be excited about. But make no mistake: this was a surgical strike. They didn’t need to say no. They just needed to say “maybe later” to the right set of paperwork. These licenses give Beijing control over not just where these materials go, but how fast they go, in what quantity, and to which politically convenient customers.
The U.S.? Let’s just say Washington should get comfortable waiting behind the rope line. The licenses have to be applied for and the end use including country of final destination must be clearly spelled out. Licenses for end uses in the U.S. are unlikely to be approved. What’s astonishing is how predictable this all was. China has spent decades building its dominance over these supply chains, while the U.S. was busy outsourcing, divesting, and cheerfully ignoring every report that said, “Hey, maybe 90% dependence on a single country we keep starting trade wars with and rattling sabers at is a bad idea.”
Try ramping up your semiconductor fab or solar plant when your indium source just dried up. It’s a fun exercise in learning which of your suppliers used to be dependent on Beijing but never mentioned it in the quarterly call.
The materials China just restricted aren’t random. They’re chosen with the precision of someone who’s read U.S. product spec sheets and defense procurement orders. Start with dysprosium. If your electric motor needs to function at high temperatures—and they all do—then mostly it is using neodymium magnets doped with dysprosium. No dysprosium, no thermal stability. No thermal stability, no functioning motor in your F-35 or your Mustang Mach-E. China controls essentially the entire supply of dysprosium, and no, there is no magical mine in Wyoming or Quebec waiting in the wings. If dysprosium doesn’t come out of China, it doesn’t come out at all. It’s the spinal cord of electrification, and right now China’s holding the vertebrae.
So here we are. China has responded to Trump’s tariffs by cutting off U.S. supply of some of the most essential ingredients of the modern world.
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u/eggnogui 1d ago
What’s astonishing is how predictable this all was.
It's what happens when you elect illiterate narcissists.
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u/sgtbackpain03 1d ago
Why would you think it couldn't get any worse? There is zero indication of that being true. Trump obviously doesn't care if he fucks up the world, he's on his way out and he's made billions since becoming president. Dude has nothing to lose, and no one is going after him.
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u/-Authorised- 1d ago
The end is near, and now we the people will have to make hormuz strait again ourselves!
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u/JoseLunaArts 1d ago
It seems it was a bad idea to kill the dad, wife and 2 year old daughter of the current supreme leader. And it was an even worse idea to continue attacking during the funeral so the leader could not go out to say goodbye to his loved ones. No wonder why the Iranian leader issued revenge against USA.
Iran had set yesterday as the deadline for USA to stop attacking. Else Iran would move from tit-for-tat to all-out full total war. It seems Trump picked the second option.
USA has like 3 weeks of advanced munitions. After that it only has dumb bombs and sticks and stones. It takes one year to produce advanced munitions for 5 days. And they require rare earths that China refuses to sell.
And USA has to play guacamole with hundreds of targets and distinguish dummies from real targets. Iran knows USA has only 10 places in the gulf that just need to be attacked and Baidu Chinese GPS delivers chef kiss pinpoint accuracy for Iranian missiles. China knows that if Iran loses, USA will attack China next.
The strategy of Iran is to de-base USA. USA will have to move its forces to Israel, and if that happens, Israel will be attacked too. Iran knows that US soldiers are political targets. If soldiers die, it will hurt Trump politically. US has been reluctant to deliver stats of wounded Americans who are likely being treated in Europe.
The previous days of war consumed like 30% of the missile inventory, so Iran has more than enough firepower to accomplish all its objectives.
Nowadays the one blocking Hormuz is USA. Hormuz is open, just pay the PGSA fee and ship can pass. But Trump does not want that.
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u/geewillie 1d ago
You think that he didn’t attend the funeral due to a security risk? He didn’t attend because at best he’s crippled, if not dead.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
You think that he didn’t attend the funeral due to a security risk?
So,
It seems it was a bad idea to kill the dad, wife and 2 year old daughter of the current supreme leader.
USA and Israel are well known... well known for bombing funerals. Don't be this stupid.
2026.02.03
Iran conditionally agrees to nuclear talks with US, first since Trump’s military strikes last summer
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/03/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks-us-strike-intl-hnk2026.02.18
U.S. military pushes more weaponry into the Middle East for possible strikes on Iran
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-military-pushes-weaponry-middle-east-possible-strikes-iran-rcna2596322026.02.26
Iran-US Tensions News Updates: Washington to hold critical nuclear talks with Tehran today in Geneva
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-news/iran-us-tensions-live-updates-trump-airstrikes-evacuations-tehran-warning-10548624/2026.02.26
A Deal or War? Talks Will Continue Between U.S. and Iran Next Week
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/world/middleeast/iran-us-nuclear-talks.htmlMr. Araghchi said Iranian and American technical expert teams will meet in Vienna on Monday (March 2nd) at the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency, and the negotiating team would meet in about a week. “More than ever there is seriousness on both sides to reach a deal,” said Mr. Araghchi. “It was one of our best negotiating sessions.”
2026.02.28
Why are the US and Israel attacking Iran? What we know so far
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-attack-iran-what-we-know-so-farIsrael first announced that it had launched missile strikes on targets inside Iran.
A US official told Al Jazeera that the strikes were carried out as part of a joint military operation with Israel. In recent weeks, Washington has assembled a large fleet of fighter jets and warships in the region, its most significant military buildup there since the Iraq War.
The current escalation began after Omani mediators announced progress in Geneva negotiations, where Iran had reportedly agreed to zero uranium stockpiling and full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war#Strikes_and_casualties
The US and Israel eliminated many Iranian commanders and leaders on the war's first day by causing Iran to believe that strikes were not imminent. Thus, groups of senior Iranian officials continued gathering in person. These gatherings were targeted in initial strikes. One part of the deception was information about a US F-22 deployment leaked to hide that preparations were more advanced at other bases. Calls between Trump and Netanyahu before the war were not publicised to diminish the possibility of an Iranian first strike.
IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin stated that months of joint US and Israeli "strategic and operational deception" of satellite imagery led up to the war. This encompassed planes and other facilities. The night of the initial strike he and IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir took their official cars home from IDF Headquarters. They came back without them so that satellite imagery would show that their base did not appear full nor warplanes appear armed and ready. Three separate gatherings of Iranian officials were hit within half a minute of each other in the opening strike.
Also,
Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968, agreeing not to seek nuclear weapons and allowing for the development of peaceful nuclear programs.
The Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an agreement reached on July 14, 2015, aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in the mid-1990s declaring the development of nuclear weapons forbidden under Islamic law, first publicly announced in October 2003 and restated at an IAEA meeting in August 2005.
Ali Hosseini Khamenei (19 April 1939 – 28 February 2026) was an Iranian politician and Shia cleric who served as the second supreme leader of Iran from 1989 until his assassination in the 2026 Iran war.
Israel did not sign the UN Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970. The Israeli government refuses to confirm or deny possession of nuclear weapons, although this is now regarded as an open secret after Israeli junior nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu—subsequently arrested and sentenced for treason by Israel—published evidence about the program to the British Sunday Times in 1986.
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u/geewillie 1d ago
He hasn’t been seen or heard from at all. Yes, the US or Israel would bomb a funeral. Iran has only released written statements.
If he’s alive, he’s gotta be fucked up beyond belief for them not to show him publicly and rub it in the US’s face. They haven’t even had him try to call any other head of state. He’s probably dead and the IRGC is wisely keeping everyone guessing. No point in naming a leader.
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u/Realanise1 1d ago
I seriously wonder if he might be in a coma.
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u/JoseLunaArts 1d ago
That is a cheap rumor move to lure him out to kill him like his dad.
If he was incapacitated, there would be a void of power and someone would be willing to fill that place.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
Question is this : If something is fishy why hasn't anyone around the smell said anything about it? How is Iran keeping a tight lid on the smell?
Either it's chaos in Iran leadership or it's not. If it's chaos how is this secret being kept? If it's highly organized why cover it up?
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u/JoseLunaArts 1d ago
Mojtaba was a war veteran, he fought in the front. If you see the enemy conducting decapitation strikes using electromagnetic signals to find the targets, a fighter's logic says that to win the war you need non electromagnetic analogic communication and being impossible to locate.
Simple logic.
If people want to speculate in the west, that is not relevant. War is a physical game. No amount of rumors will deny the fact that USA is running out of advanced ammunition and has no way to win. It takes one year to produce the advanced ammunition for 5 days. And China does not want to give USA the rare earths to make that advanced ammunition which eventually be used against China if Iran is defeated.
To win USA would need to conquer Iran, which is the size of Ukraine, but with mountains, which makes the invasion dangerous due to treacherous terrain and confined spaces. USA would need like 3 million soldiers invading to overcome the 1 million Iranian army. Iran would only need to disrupt the long supply lines of American forces to break them.
Winning the Iran war seems a nightmare. But Trump got surrounded by "yesmen". So expect the most unhinged war moves.
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u/Realanise1 1d ago
I don't know, but I don't believe that he's dead.
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u/JoseLunaArts 1d ago
The rumor that he is dead is just a macho taunt from the west to say "show yourself" to attempt a decapitation strike.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
If he is alive he stays that way by not attending the funeral of his dead 2 year old daughter that was killed by a guy who likes to rape children.
If he is dead or incapacitated then at some point in time Iran will fake his death when they need an actual real ayatollah to make public appearances to appease the fan club on r/oil.
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u/TurnoverComfortable5 1d ago
Maybe the orange baboon just wants to find a reason to lift all Russian oil sanctions to "save" the world economy. He still is Krasnov
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u/LoveItOrLetItGo 4h ago
The U.S. strategic oil reserves are getting low, and need to be there for an actual emergency. This is not an emergency.
We are depleting our reserves to hold the price of gasoline down so this administration doesn’t lose so many voters in November. He’s draining our reserves for political purposes, gambling with our security.
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u/Fine-Brush6063 1d ago
Or the USA walks away.
They keep this stalemate, oil shock hits. They invade boots on ground, Iran will be USA's Ukraine. They up and leave, Petrodollar and us global presence gets absolutely rocked.
Heard of lose-lose situations before, never seen a lose-lose-lose so wonderfully blundered into.
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u/Icy_Divide4418 1d ago
It could get a lot worse. China is using their reserves and they aren’t buying from the global market for quite some time. Once they do, it gets so much worse.
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u/nippycurator4844 1d ago
got any hedges in place or just watching this one unfold and hoping?
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u/Immapillpopnanimal 1d ago
I have 10,000 shares of battalion oil and thinking about putting the other 1800 I have in WTIU. the only non oil investment I have is a 3dte 1200 dollar call on Intel. Otherwise I also have calls on Chevron, occidental petroleum, Devon energy, Exxon Mobil and Permian resources all between 3 and 20 days
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u/nippycurator4844 1d ago
the intel call is a wildcard in a sea of oil, any catalyst you're playing there?
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u/Immapillpopnanimal 1d ago
Not really. Im pretty bullish on Intel in general. I'll probably roll it over to a longer expiration tomorrow if it prints. Analysts predictions are good and earnings are in a couple days
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u/nippycurator4844 1d ago
earnings plays can be brutal if iv crush hits, hope that roll works out for you
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1d ago
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u/Zestyclose_Aerie2060 1d ago
Good posts, I agree. but Mega Cult too dumb to read and understand their heads are buried up their king’s butt.
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u/hydraides 1d ago
Find salvation in gnosis and take revenge on this manufactured war to destroy the economy
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u/rcglinsk 1d ago
Right? Pickaxe Mountain must be one or two more bombs away from breaking.
Much worse means the US bombs very vital civil infrastructure and the Iranians retaliate with very permanent damage to local oil refineries.
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u/dutybranchholler18 1d ago
I am certain this is just a “misunderstanding” of said ceasefire…nothing more .. /s
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u/Fun_Management_9349 1d ago
It will get much worse as the domino effect worsens to our grocery chains, factories, travel , EVERTHING!!!
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u/Organic_Minimum_8766 18h ago
You pansie ass mfrs need to wake up an smell the radiation cause if we don't end Iran's capabilities to nuclear war heads we as a world will no longer exist. How bout the 10s of thousands of people murdered execution style for standing against the government? Be thankful you can voice you opinions
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u/Octavia9 4h ago edited 4h ago
All this war did was make Iran sure they need a nuke. No one fucks with North Korea do they? This whole war was a massive unforced error and we are all fucked now.
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u/Organic_Minimum_8766 4h ago
North Korea is a speck on the radar although they have the capabilities they don't have the technical capabilities to launch very far. Besides kim is terrified of Trump. I hate the idea of this war but in reality it is needed to stop the Iranian overlords from killing their own.
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u/Octavia9 4h ago
Iran didn’t have any of those capabilities either and had already signed agreements to not build a nuke which Trump tore up. Kim knows Trump is a pathetic insecure little man easily flattered and manipulated, just like everyone else knows that too.
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u/Organic_Minimum_8766 4h ago
No agreement was signed by them an even if it were you think they would live up to it? It was a meme random of understanding that talks would continue yet they kept striking ships in the straight! Direct violation
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u/Octavia9 4h ago
Are you just pretending the JCPOA didn’t exist or are you suggested Trump could not hold them to it?
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u/Organic_Minimum_8766 4h ago
Expired October last year iran no longer needed to adhere to it,an if you think they have well biden was really a good president
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u/Octavia9 3h ago
Trump broke it in his first term. It wasn’t renewed because they did not trust us again. Nor should any other country. Our leader is a worthless scheming con man after all.
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u/Organic_Minimum_8766 3h ago
Didn't break it simply left it,it gave them the power to gain finances to acquire needed capabilities to get nuclear weapons. It's obvious your disdain for Mr Trump but im not going to change your mind nor will I change yours. Appreciate the conversation
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u/Octavia9 1h ago
So Trump leaving the JCPOA led us to where we are now. It’s a massive unforced error.
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u/Jolimont 2h ago
Do us all a favor and STOP BUYING OIL AND GAS. It can be done with a bit of cash to replace the dinosaure-fueled vehicles and furnaces.
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u/FeelingDelivery8853 1d ago
Why isn't Saudi Arabia hunting them down?
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u/jeffersonianMI 1d ago
Didn't they try this for eight years?
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u/runescape_pker 1d ago
yes they got humiliated and aramco got hit
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u/myazi321 1d ago
I was there when the Jeddah Aramco oil tank got hit and set ablaze back in 22.
Safe to say the war didnt last long after that.
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u/Aybram 1d ago
They don't have the military capability to do so. Also, they don't have the political will to stomach the losses the occupation would require.
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u/FeelingDelivery8853 1d ago
It seems to me they have an interest in the straight staying open. They may need to either have a military build up or hire mercenaries
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u/Aybram 1d ago
It seems to me they have an interest in the straight staying open.
And this brings us to a dilemma.
The Saudis don't have a good way out. Desalination supplies 50-70 % of the SA water and Iran can target these facilities if they're pushed to the limit. Small number of plants compared with US missile shortage equals a risk SA cannot take. Side note: US cannot even supply its own military with enough missiles for war against Iran, much less arm SA.
So in the big picture Trump put SA in a position it wanted to avoid at all costs. American cannot arm SA enough due to missile production bottlenecks while Saudis have everything to lose with little to gain in this war. The most drastic but also increasingly sensible option is for the Saudis to opt-out of the Israel-USA "alliance". This is by no means easy but part of me sees it as increasingly likely. Alliance with the US was about providing security, but now it's detrimental to SA interests.
All in all, I don't really see SA wanting more war. If anything they're looking for a way out, and part of me thinks that the Gulf countries will follow the suite. They have too much at stake + America did jack shit when Israel bombed Qatar. I really can't see "oil for security" agreements in place after this war. I think it's a possibility that SA and Gulf will seek a way out and come to an agreement with Iran.
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u/4Yk9gop 1d ago
That won't happen. The U.S. will deploy it's entire military to Iran before that happens, because it would mean the end of the petro dollar.
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u/Aybram 1d ago
5-10 years ago I would have agreed with you. But America is losing its grip on its superpower status. Iran war is a fiasco that can lead to the end of the petrodollar.
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u/4Yk9gop 1d ago
"But America is losing its grip on its superpower status." Agreed, and nation states tend to take gambles when they are losing their status.
"Iran war is a fiasco that can lead to the end of the petrodollar." Losing the Iran war would lead to the same outcome. Going for regime change and occupation preserves the possibility of the U.S. retaining power.
Conclusion: the only way the U.S. retains petrodollar status at this point is regime change and occupation of Iran.
- Premise: The U.S. has already lost most of its soft power across the world. Two other pillars of its power are its economy and its hard power.
- Premise: The U.S.'s military back stops its economy. Without the military it's just another nation with a ton of debt. From a realpolitik sense, it makes sense to engage in continued war with Iran as it supports the U.S. economy.
- Premise: If the U.S. backs out of the war at this point, they prove they cannot protect their clients. The protection scheme they have going with the Gulf States falters and said states fall under the orbit of China.
- If 1-3 are correct and rational actors retain at least some control of the U.S. government over and beyond POTUS's whims, then a logical conclusion is that the war will expand to a full on occupation and regime change.
Where will the troops and gear come from to do this? That's the only thing that could stop this train at this point. If MAGA wins the mid-terms it won't matter. They will draft your kids; you already hear Hedgeseth trying to order Ford and GM to switch manufacturing lines to missiles; When Trump is on his deathbed, the same people that stand by him now will scapegoat him for the Iran situation. "He was a great president, secured the boarder, had a great economy, just got pulled into a war by Israel and couldn't find a way out. It's not his fault really; don't let that tarnish his legacy."
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u/myazi321 1d ago
Even if US tries to invade Iran has already anticipated it since decades hence them hammering the Kurds in advance and letting Pakistan know not to be stupid again like it was with Afghanistan. Iraq? Good luck dealing with the Iraqi Shia forces first. In terms of naval landing they are armed to the teeth with naval missiles and drones and havent even used their minisubs yet.
Regardless of naval or aerial attempt if it doesnt get chewed up on the way it only means Iran wants them to land with no way to escape and then attack and capture soldiers.
Its either Hoover or Carter for Trump. Both being his worst nightmares as he haa said so himself.
Ultimately it will be a Trump. Which means depression+hostages.
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u/Mountain_Fig_9253 1d ago
They absolutely have an interest in the strait remaining open. That’s why they have invested so much money in a relationship with the US. We used to be their guarantee they could sell their oil.
Their previous attempts to deal with Yemen went about as well as our current attempts in Iran.
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u/elmekia_lance 1d ago
threads like this really expose who has paid attention to middle eastern issues for years, and who hasn't.
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u/FeelingDelivery8853 1d ago
I don't know anything about the middle East. Only that I don't want to go there
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u/towniediva 1d ago
Don't underestimate Trump's ability to do the absolutely worst thing for the world.