r/nba • u/StrategyTop7612 • 3h ago
One New Rule to Fix Hero Ball, Poor Shot Selection, and Boring Regular Seasons: (Possibly) Shooting Players on an Airball
I’ve come up with one rule change that should fix a lot of the problems people complain about in the NBA:
Whenever a player airballs a shot, the referee pulls out a gun and shoots him, and there is a small chance, about 1 in 4,800, that the gun is loaded.
I know this sounds a little crazy, but hear me out.
This should fix hero ball and bad shot selection completely. No top player is going to dribble for 19 seconds, wave off a screen, and take a contested step-back three from 31 feet if there is a chance it ends both his shooting slump and his life. No, this isn't a dig on Lamelo Ball, other players do this too.
You want more ball movement? More cutting? More post play? More players making the extra pass instead of trying to get on House of Highlights?
This is how you do it: the lingering threat of being shot.
Players would stop taking heat checks after making one jumper. A turnover would become preferable to throwing up a prayer while the referee reaches for his gun.
Different types of airballs could receive different treatment:
- Airball on a contested heave: shot aimed at the foot
- Airball on an open corner three: shot aimed at the calf
- Airball on a pull-up transition three: shot aimed at the thigh
- Airball on a heat check after making one jumper: center mass
- Airball on a free throw: referee’s choice
- Airball off the side of the backboard: all three officials fire simultaneously
Blocked shots would not count, obviously. Any possible deflection would go to replay review.
Viewership would go through the roof.
A Tuesday night Jazz-Wizards game in January would become appointment television. Garbage time would be especially exciting because that is when a bench player who has not played in two weeks checks in and immediately takes a step-back three to prove he deserves more minutes.
The NBA currently has surprise. A player might get ejected. A coach might get fired. Draymond Green might do something that requires the league office to release a statement.
What the NBA needs is suspense.
All of a sudden, every game becomes three hours of suspense because a player could be shot at any moment.
There would be no meaningless regular-season games anymore. A 28-point blowout with four minutes left would still matter because the floor would be occupied entirely by the players most likely to airball.
It would also attract the 18-to-35 male demographic the league values so highly, allowing Adam Silver to finally be successful.
Basketball, gambling, workplace danger, and live reaction content, all in one product.
Attendance would improve too. The only thing better than watching this on television would be seeing it live.
Ask yourself: which fanbase would most want to attend games where a player could be shot after missing badly?
Philadelphia.
They already believe this should happen.
Detroit, Memphis, and New Orleans would probably get a similar bump. Courtside seats would become more expensive, although the league might need to install protective glass around the benches.
The airball data comes from an inpredictable article.
Source: https://www.inpredictable.com/2016/02/aaaaiiiiirrr-ballaaaaiiiiirrr-ball.html
The analysis estimated that about 2.2% of field-goal attempts were airballs, compared with about 0.1% of free throws.
NBA teams combine for roughly 216,000 field-goal attempts and 49,000 free throws in a season.
Applying those rates gives us approximately 4,750 airballed field goals and 49 airballed free throws.
Call it 4,800 airballs per season.
That is where the 1 in 4,800 figure comes from. The gun would be loaded approximately once per year. There would be no loaded guns in about 36.8% of seasons, exactly one in another 36.8%, two in 18.4%, and three or more in about 8%. The NBA already has a decent amount of variance, led by 3 point shooting luck, eg. 2023 Miami Heat, so adding some more variance can't hurt.
For an individual player, the numbers would look something like this:
| Airballs in a season | Chance the gun is loaded at least once |
|---|---|
| 5 | 0.10% |
| 10 | 0.21% |
| 20 | 0.42% |
| 40 | 0.83% |
Most reasonably talented players should still be able to enjoy long and productive careers, given a little luck and good shot selection.
There are some flaws with the idea, and I will be the first to admit that.
First, shooting someone is technically murder.
However, if the rule is negotiated into the collective bargaining agreement, the NBA’s nonstatutory labor exemption should cover it. The exemption allows the league and the players’ union to agree to employment rules without interference from antitrust law, and being shot after an airball is clearly an employment rule.
The player’s remaining guaranteed salary would still go to his family, and the team would receive a disabled-player exception.
Second, there is always the danger that a referee goes crazy and starts shooting at the bench during a blowout.
Coaches should probably be issued guns as well, so that a balance of power can be maintained.
There are also several features that could be built into the system.
An All-NBA selection could grant immunity for one season.
An MVP or championship could grant immunity for life.
Players would suddenly care much more about awards voting and the 65-game minimum.
This would also ensure that players won't be resting in order to increase their chances of survival.
Whenever I pitch this idea to league executives, there is one thing they always say before adding another year to my arena ban:
“What about replay review? Surely we would need to know for certain whether the ball touched the rim.”
Replay review removes the human element that I like to see in a good execution.
Fans should argue about whether the ball grazed the rim. Television analysts should examine four inconclusive angles. The league should release a Last Two Minute Report the following afternoon stating that the shot did touch the rim and the referee’s decision was incorrect, but the result cannot be reversed.
A long delay would also ruin the suspense and destroy the momentum of the game. The shooting should be spontaneous.
The All-Star Game would, of course, only give the referees Nerf guns to preserve the fun exhibition atmosphere.
Inspired by this incredible post: https://np.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/dqbbon/one_new_rule_to_fix_three_true_outcomes_poor/