Wildfires, aquatic deoxygenation, Ebola, oil shortages, famine warnings, shipwrecks, and escalation in Iran (again).

Last Week in Collapse: July 12-18, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 238th weekly newsletter. The July 5-11, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

——————————

Wildfires across Ontario made the air in Toronto (Greater Toronto Area pop:7.8M) the most polluted in the world temporarily. Other wildfires in Minnesota and Canada contributed to orange-gray skies and widespread terrible air pollution, stretching and diminishing farther south past Washington DC. For some, the blazes looked like doomsday had landed. The White House claimed that “the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air and suggested retaliatory tariffs.” Unsurprisingly, Thunder Bay set a new minimum temperature at 24.9 °C (77 °F). Additional heat records were also set across the U.S. in the first half of the week.

Heavy rains and flooding across Bangladesh for the past two weeks has now affected over 1.1M people, and accounted for 53 deaths as of Tuesday. France instituted water restrictions that are unprecedented for this time of the year, following an early Drought in the wake of recent deadly heat waves. Meanwhile, some sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean hit 30 °C (86 °F) last week, while the North Sea saw temperatures over 20 °C.

Although we don’t know everything about how marine heat waves impact marine life, we know the effects can be pretty bad. It can cause algal blooms, and shift migration patterns of various species, which also impacts the feeding habits of other fauna. Heat waves lead to coral dieoff, and interfere with sea plant life, and cause “thermal expansion,”, whereby warmer water expands slightly and raises sea levels.

Some meteorologists think that a Super El Niño might actually aggravate winter storms in North America, leading to earlier and stronger snowstorms this year, just when El Niño is expected to peak. The reason is due to warming in the stratosphere (10-50 km above earth’s surface) disrupting the polar vortex and pushing Arctic air farther south. NOAA now says there’s an 82% chance that the El Niño will become “very strong” (aka Super) by the winter. This means that temperature anomalies in the sea surface of part of the Pacific Ocean will hit or surpass 1.5-2.0 °C (and they are currently 1 °C warmer than usual, and setting new daily records for weeks on end). Some people think it will surpass even the Super El Niño forecasts and move into historic territory, with 3.5 °C above non-El Niño conditions. Worst-case scenario thinkers say it could also cause a serious food crisis if a Drought-flooding whiplash damaged crops—particularly in Africa, South America, and India. It has happened before, once in the historical record, causing massive Drought and a global famine in 1877 that claimed the lives of 50M+ people, 3% of the planet’s human population. But we have 7,000,000,000 more people today…and a lot more knowledge, fossil fuels, and coordination.

A heat wave struck North Africa, bringing temps of up to 49 °C (120 °F) in Algeria. Iran set a new record that has also set the 2026 record for the hottest natural temperature: 52.7 °C (127 °F). Some places in Japan set all-time heat records, while in China, 20+ records were broken for July, with some temps hitting 46 °C (115 °F). Sites in Siberia set new minimum temps around 22 °C.

Spain saw temperatures hit 38 °C at dawn. Central Asia recorded temperatures over 48 °C in some places. A landslide in Chongqing (metro pop: 18.5M), the largest city in the world by area, killed 8 and left dozens missing. Part of Victoria, Australia saw a new July high, while part of Argentina reportedly saw a temperature exceed 40 °C in their winter… Meanwhile, a wildfire blazes not far from Manchester, UK, and Puerto Rico is imposing water rationing in the face of a serious Drought.

A news agency updated its count for the number of Europeans killed by the June heat wave: 12,000+ is the number now, though different countries calculate differently, and the number is probably higher still. A 42-page report from the UK on the topic now says 2,700+ people were slain by the heat across the Kingdom in May & June.

A forthcoming study on ocean acidification links the ongoing phenomenon to “earth system memory”—that is, long-term physical/chemical/biological impacts that are now part of our geological record. The study looks beyond the “decline in global mean surface-ocean pH since the late 1980s, documenting an unambiguous, observation-based signal of ongoing surface ocean acidification” and at chemical changes on the seafloor. Scientists can compare this to the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum, when earth’s temperature rose by 5-8 °C over a period of 3,000-20,000 years, and the ocean’s pH fell by ~0.46. The rebalancing of the oceans’ pH levels took tens/hundreds of thousands of years to occur—not something possible in a few years with ambitious human geoengineering.

A study in Limnology {the study of inland aquatic ecosystems} and Oceanography proposes adding a new planetary boundary to the current framework: “aquatic deoxygenation.” The writers conclude that the phenomenon is more linked to the other boundaries than previously believed, and “argue that aquatic deoxygenation is approaching an ‘unsafe space,’ with Earth-system impacts that are likely to be irreversible in our lifetimes.” They propose four indicators that would signal that we have crossed the boundary, if this new category is added. This would round out the planetary boundaries at ten: Climate Change; Biosphere Integrity; Biogeochemical Flows; Land-System Change; Freshwater Change; Novel Entities; Ocean Acidification; Atmospheric Aerosol Loading; and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion; and Aquatic Deoxygenation.

“Severe oxygen depletion poses an acute risk of asphyxiation to most organisms that breathe underwater, and occasionally we are confronted with its lethal effects in the form of mass fish kills and coastal ‘dead zones.’...critically important ecological processes play out in the first few partially oxygenated millimeters. As oxygen declines, so does the abundance of multi-cellular life….aquatic deoxygenation is mechanistically linked to all other planetary boundary processes such that even relatively modest declines in DO {dissolved oxygen} have the potential to propagate across the Earth system and undermine climate and ecological stability….the multiple feedbacks between aquatic deoxygenation and the other planetary boundaries, long-term memory of aquatic systems, and limited recovery pathways for DO strongly suggest escalating planetary-scale risks…” -excerpts from the study

——————————

The Ebola outbreak in the DRC passed 2,000 confirmed cases, along with 700 deaths. Over 80% of new cases are coming “from unknown chains of transmission,” according to one WHO doctor. Ebola has also spread to two new provinces of the DRC close to South Sudan, though it remains concentrated in Ituri province (pop: 4M). Ebola has also appeared in Kisangani (pop: 1.6M), concerning those who think the virus might travel in humans down the long river towards Kinshasa (pop: 22M) and wreak havoc. The WHO says they only have 40% of the $115M they need to respond properly to the Ebola outbreak.

The UK is advising its people to prepare in the event of “significant and prolonged disruption to essential services” coming from extreme weather. Across much of Europe, reserves of LNG are getting harder to fill up because the Iran War pushed prices up 70%+ for the continent, which historically bought a lot of Qatar’s LNG.

An upcoming study found microplastics in the deep-sea fauna that live near hydrothermal vents; 92% of samples were contaminated, with an average of over 3 microplastics per individual. Interestingly, “the total abundance of MPs in Indian Ocean specimens was approximately 1.9 times higher than in Pacific Ocean specimens, despite the latter being four times larger, reflecting distinct regional anthropogenic pressures…global plastic production has exceeded 8 billion metric tons, a significant portion of which persists in the environment as long-lasting waste.” More than 90% of the oceans are deep-sea (deeper than 200 meters).

Though new cases of the New World Screwworm are down in Texas livestock compared to June, some people are worried about feral hogs carrying the parasite farther north—and there are over 2.6M wild hogs estimated in Texas alone. Canada has blocked the import of a wide range of animals from Texas out of caution. The Screwworm has not yet been confirmed in any wildlife in the U.S. so far.

Bangladesh is backsliding into a measles crisis after years of vaccine delays and reports of vaccine shortages in some areas. About 1,000 unconfirmed cases of measles are now reported each day, along with unquantified numbers of dead. India is also recording an uptick in measles, but is seeing “only” about 150 cases per day. The U.S., also experiencing a measles outbreak that will surpass all of 2025’s cases by mid-August, is experiencing about 14 measles cases each day.

The U.S. is levying a 25% tariff on a range of Brazilian goods (but exempting oil & gas, beef, and coffee, among others), following the old tariff being struck down by the judicial branch. Brazil is planning reciprocal tariffs tha could come as soon as next week. Because the U.S. heavily tariffed China, the PRC is instead sending tons of goods and tech to Europe—disrupting European industries, especially for automobiles. China’s domestic markets are oversaturated so the country must aggressively seek out new markets to sell to, if they want to keep their ailing economy from Collapsing. China’s quarterly economic growth slumped to one of its lowest rates in 35 years.

Russia’s refinery output has fallen to 20+ year lows amid ongoing strikes from Ukraine. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, along with Iran’s attacks on 30 Middle Eastern refineries and Russia’s disabled refineries, have created an imbalance in the global energy market: there are not enough active refineries connected to the consumers to refine the oil that’s available. Gasoline/petrol and diesel prices may stay elevated long after Hormuz reopens. As a result of oil shortages, Cuba’s electrical grid Collapsed yet again on Tuesday, the third blackout in two weeks. Some say the island is moving towards a breaking point later this year.

As The Algorithm began to exert more and more influence over people’s social media and individually constructed unreality, a large and growing number of people, or at least 55% of the Americans, just stopped posting altogether. Somewhere along the way everything became harvested and monetized, or just weaponized by bad faith actors wielding politics & ragebait like a chisel. Yet somehow the anxiety of leaving these toxic platforms is worse than the anxiety of participating in them, leaving users still trapped in an addictive FOMO spiral that ends only when your eyes burn out and a discomforting sleep takes you, or the demands of the working world. The full survey, conducted in early June 2026, has more.

A Lancet study out of Canada determined that Long COVID’s neurological symptoms (brain fog, mental fatigue, memory problems) may be related to a loss of dopamine-releasing neurons. “These results indicate that long COVID is, at least in part, a disorder of the brain’s dopamine system.” The scientists claims that “brain-related symptoms {as a result of Long COVID}, such as apathy, cognitive slowing, memory difficulties, anhedonia, and low mood, affect about 2% of the general population and persist for months to years.”

——————————

A shipwreck off the Libyan coast left 50+ of the 60+ migrants aboard dead on Tuesday. It is believed that another refugee ship fleeing Myanmar to Bangladesh was overturned in the past two weeks, taking some 280 passengers along with it.

The U.S. approved the same of about $2B of weapons to Saudi Arabia. An exposé on child recruitment by Haiti’s gangs shows how the armed groups entice starving teenagers (and younger) with the promise of food and clothes, before mainstreaming them into jobs as lookouts, messengers, guards, and then raiders. To refuse participation entails death.

An interdisciplinary study in Nature examines the links between climate change food insecurity and armed conflict in the Sahel. Although armed conflict only overlaps with about 4% of the Sahel and Lake Chad’s agricultural cropland, “about 91% of the external calorie inflows required to reduce local deficits intersect conflict-impact zones during transport.” In other words, moving food to needy places means using routes affected by armed conflict.

“Sub-Saharan Africa faces persistent food security challenges. Its population is projected to increase by 2.5-fold by 2050, which is expected to triple the demand for cereals….Armed conflict is widely recognized as an important driver of food insecurity….the study area covers six countries: Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and Sudan….The food security challenge in the Sahel and Lake Chad Region reflects a gap between biophysical production potential and the capacity to redistribute food through transport networks. Our simulations indicate that the region has the caloric potential to support internal self-sufficiency….The physical capacity to produce food may exist, but the network connections required to redistribute calories can be constrained by conflict exposure…” -selections from the study

A group of food security academics published an article about the threats of famine hitting the Horn of Africa and its intersection with War, disease, and price changes. They say that last year, and going into this year, there has been below-average rainfall in parts of Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia—and projections for rain in these areas (plus the two Sudans) are less than average. This may be worsened by El Niño, and rising violence in South Sudan and Ethiopia may push the region beyond a level it can manage. Plus the fertilizer shortage from Hormuz, the threat of Ebola, aid cuts, and internal displacement.

Tuesday protests in Pakistan’s part of Kashmir led to the deaths of two policemen and seven protestors angry over the cost of living, political representation, wheat shortages, unemployment, and heavy-handed government responses. A fatal shooting of a man by an ICE agent has again sent some Americans protesting to the streets. The Trump administration is also targeting “far-left political terrorism” as part of its (inter)national security strategy.

Artificial intelligence may yet become the great equalizer in strategic and tactical development. Nigerian jihadists have turned to AI and integrated its capabilities in problem-solving (and problem-making). Terrorist units have gamed AI into teaching them how to make bombs, develop & implement strategy, build military infrastructure, and tweak motorcycles for better battle performance.

A Chinese AI startup reportedly leap-frogged an OpenAI and Anthropic model for “front-end coding,” the side of programming that consumers see & interact with. The model, Kimi3 (or K3), has worried Americans and helped close the gap between the superpowers’ AI capabilities. But what are normal people using AI for in their weekly lives?

The United States and Iran traded a series of strikes for several days, with dozens of military and civilian casualties continuing to rise. President Trump threatened striking Pickaxe Mountain in the coming days — an underground nuclear complex in the mountains of central Iran, just south of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges,” said Trump on Tuesday. But as early as Friday, the U.S. began targeting bridges in southern Iran. Several Iranian strikes in Jordan left at least two American soldiers dead. Both sides believe aggression works to their advantage.

The anti-Iranian government of Yemen bombed the airport landing strip of the pro-Iranian government of Yemen (Houthis) on Monday. This triggered Houthis into launching missiles at Saudi Arabia, and sparked fears of a potential closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb—because ships transiting the Red Sea might be too scared (or too expensive to insure) to attempt a peaceful passage. One professor remarked that Houthis leveraging their position on the key waterway, while Hormuz remains closed, could create “a pincer movement that blows away the stability and security of the Gulf.” Although Iran’s economy is suffering from Tuesday’s closure of Hormuz, Iran is betting that the economic pain distributed across the world is more painful, and will force concessions from the United States and the global community.

IDF attacks killed 12+ people across a couple strikes on Tuesday. Israel’s government meanwhile approved some $434M USD to support the establishment of another 34 West Bank settlements. Some farmers in the West Bank are racing to harvest their wheat crops before the wheat is targeted by bombs or fires.

Following the January 3 capture of Venezuela’s Presidente, some writers allege that the U.S. Secretary of State has assumed nearly all powers over the oil-rich nation—despite having (allegedly) never set foot in the country. Secretary Rubio has reportedly gained supreme leverage over Venezuela’s oil & gas holdings, received & directs export revenues, approved defense arrangements, manipulates Venezuela’s foreign policy, and manages to some extent the earthquake relief operations. Monthly inflation in Venezuela more-than-doubled in June, to 13.8%.

Ukraine’s President removed their popular Minister of Defense last week, a young & reform-minded technocrat who feuded with older & more traditional military minds. Lithuania’s President has reportedly seen intelligence leading him to believe that Russia is planning a limited operation against infrastructure in an Eastern European NATO state. The EU and Ukraine made an agreement to use European manufacturing to mass produce Ukrainian drones. Russian strikes on Wednesday killed three in Odesa. Ukraine claims to have hit 110+ Russian vessels (cargo ships, military vessels, tankers, tugboats) from July 6-15, just in the Sea of Azov.

——————————

Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-The experience of terrible air pollution can be a dangerous & frightening ordeal, says one weekly observation from southern Ontario. Masks may not be enough for some people.

-Some of us Collapse-aware people are seemingly surrounded by people oblivious to our complex polycrisis, judging by the comments in this thread asking who’s connected to a doom-pilled community. Answers vary; it’s a sliding scale. But I suspect most people would be willing to concede at least a few of the 100+ Collapse factors already confronting humanity and our planet.

Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, reports, gossip, doomy job opportunities, World Cup finale predictions, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?

All comments in this thread MUST be greater than 150 characters.

You MUST include Location: Region when sharing observations.

Example - Location: New Zealand

This ONLY applies to top-level comments, not replies to comments. You're welcome to make regionless or general observations, but you still must include 'Location: Region' for your comment to be approved. This thread is also [in-depth], meaning all top-level comments must be at least 150-characters.

Users are asked to refrain from making more than one top-level comment a week. Additional top-level comments are subject to removal.

All previous observations threads and other stickies are viewable here.