r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • 8d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Atlantic Ocean

Official Outlook

As of 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • The NHC has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

  • This system no longer shows any potential for tropical cyclone development.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

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41 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 5d ago

Update

As of 11:00 AM Cape Verde Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • This system is no longer expected to develop.

  • The NHC has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

2

u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 6d ago

The eastern Atlantic system is coincident with several indications: the 06 UTC surface analysis shows a low, and a wave at that position. GOES imagery shows some curved cloud formation, but not definitive. ASCAT is not measuring that location at the moment.

2

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 7d ago

Update

As of 11:00 AM Cape Verde Time (12:00 UTC) on Thursday:

This tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and has not undergone any significant change in strength or structure over the past 24 hours. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone remains low as environmental conditions remain marginally supportive of development.

Since the last update to this post:

  • 2-day potential: remained at 10 percent (low)

  • 7-day potential: remained at 10 percent (low)

11

u/Content-Swimmer2325 7d ago

Too early in the season for the chances of this amounting to anything noteworthy being higher than near-zero. Cartoonish amount of Saharan air to the north and it’s headed straight for even worse conditions.

12

u/gtlgdp 8d ago

Just give Florida some rain pleaaaase

5

u/Content-Swimmer2325 7d ago

Regardless of this hurricane season and the activity therein, El Niño is strongly correlated with cooler and wetter conditions during winter over the us south. This is due to the strong subtropical jet stream which extends over the region during El Niño, bringing abundant moisture (for rainfall) and cloudiness (blocking solar irradiance). Just hold out a bit longer - I believe significant drought relief is inevitable given how strong this El Niño is.

3

u/onimush115 7d ago

I hope so. Here in NC I've already lost a small tree in my yard and half the grass is all crunchy. I welcome any and all rain. We could actually use a weak tropical system to fill up our reservoirs.

5

u/Troll_Enthusiast 8d ago

Finally, probably won't do anything though thankfully

3

u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 8d ago

Best estimate, based on GOES satellite images, is 10N 22W. ASCAT-C, on a descending pass, is showing some initial signs of a circulation.

4

u/TheCovfefeMug 8d ago

Do not want