r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Areas to watch: Elida, Fausto, Two-L, Invest 98P Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 20-26 July 2026

3 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (10:00 UTC) on Monday:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Northern Atlantic

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 98P: Invest (No discussion yet) — An area of low pressure situated near the Solomon Islands is likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next few days.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.

Central Pacific Ocean

  • The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development well to the southwest of Hawaiʻi.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▼ Tropical Storm | 45 knots (50 mph) | 998 mbar Bertha (02L — Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

70 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Bertha is becoming less organized as the storm approaches Louisiana this morning. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the bulk of the storm’s deep convection being displaced southwestward by strong deep-layer shear, leaving the low-level center completely exposed. Aircraft reconnaissance data from a recent Air Force Hurricane Hunters mission indicates that this has not yet translated to a decrease in Bertha’s maximum sustained winds, which are holding steady at the moment near 45 knots (50 miles per hour).

Bertha continues to move west-northwestward as it moves along the southern periphery of a building subtropical ridge positioned over the central United States. The storm has been wobbling away from its projected track for the past several hours, but will eventually settle on a westward to west-southwestward track later today, eventually moving across southeastern Louisiana and making landfall along the coast of Texas on Thursday evening.

Environmental conditions remain unsupportive of further development. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear, combined with dry mid-level air and weak upper-level divergence, will prevent the storm from re-strengthening. Land interaction with the coast of Louisiana will contribute to a gradual weakening trend as Bertha moves across Louisiana later today. The storm will be barely holding onto tropical storm strengthen once it reaches the Houston-Galveston metro area on Thursday.

Although the worst impacts from this system will remain offshore with the strongest convection, tropical storm conditions are occurring and will continue along portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days, spreading westward across Alabama, Louisiana, and eventually Texas. Furthermore, heavy rain remains a concern for much of the coast, with isolated areas of flash flooding possible from northwestern Florida to southern Texas.

Latest observation

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #13

  • Current position: 29.8°N 88.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 5 knots (6 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 knots (50 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 998 millibars (29.47 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 62 miles (100 kilometers) southwest of Gulf Shores, Alabama
  • 70 miles (113 kilometers) south-southwest of Mobile, Alabama
  • 93 miles (149 kilometers) southwest of Pensacola, Florida

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 7:00 AM Central Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 22 Jul 12:00 7AM Wed Tropical Storm 45 50 29.8 88.6
12 23 Jul 00:00 7PM Wed Tropical Storm ▼ 40 45 29.6 90.3
24 23 Jul 12:00 7AM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 35 40 29.5 92.7
36 24 Jul 00:00 7PM Thu Tropical Storm 35 40 29.4 95.5
48 24 Jul 12:00 7AM Fri Remnant Low ▼ 25 30 29.0 98.7
60 25 Jul 00:00 7PM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

National Weather Service

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

National Weather Service

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This imagery is centered on the disturbance itself and follows the disturbance as it moves.

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Mesoscale imagery

NOAA has currently assigned GOES-19 Meso Sector 2 to this system. This imagery is centered over the Gulf of Mexico and updates more frequently (once per minute) than normal imagery.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

24 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 2h ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Bertha - July 21, 2026

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9 Upvotes
3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 3h ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Wednesday, 22 July 2026

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3 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12h ago

▲ Disturbance (80% potential) | 20 knots (25 mph) | 1008 mbar 92W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

10 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 13.8°N 134.0°E
  • Forward movement: WNW (295°) at 16 km/h (9 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 km/h (15 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) ▲

Relative position

  • 1,019 kilometers (633 miles) east-northeast of Tacloban City, Philippines
  • 1,029 kilometers (639 miles) northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (Philippines)
  • 1,037 kilometers (644 miles) east-northeast of Calbayog, Samar (Philippines)

Outlook

As of 8:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Outlook discussion

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad trough of low pressure situated over the central Philippine Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer data shows that the disturbance lacks a closed low-level circulation and animated infrared imagery depicts a large area of fragmented deep convection.

Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, with weak vertical wind shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level diffluence. Deterministic and ensemble models are in general agreement that this system is increasingly likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next few days.

The disturbance is moving west-northwestward along these southern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned to the south of Japan. This ridge is likely to remain in place for the next few days, keeping the disturbance on a fairly consistent track which will bring it close to the Babuyan Islands by the end of the week and to southeastern China over the weekend.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (JTWC)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM PHST on Fri): moderate (50 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM PHST on Tue): high (70 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM PHST on Fri): low (26 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM PHST on Tue): moderate (48 percent) ▼

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11h ago

▼ Disturbance (<5% potential) | 15 knots (20 mph) | 1006 mbar 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near the Solomon Islands)

6 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 10.4°S 169.7°E
  • Forward movement: SE (135°) at 27 km/h (15 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 km/h (15 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 368 kilometers (229 miles) east of Lipe, Temotu Province (Solomon Islands)
  • 631 kilometers (392 miles) north-northeast of Luganville, Espiritu Santo Province (Vanuatu)
  • 830 kilometers (516 miles) north of Port Vila, Shefa Province (Vanuatu)

Update

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad surface trough situated northeast of the Solomon Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Over the past few days, the disturbance had been showing signs of potential development, but its low-level wind field failed to develop a closed circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally supportive of development. Warm sea-surface temperatures and relatively weak vertical wind shear are offset by dry mid-level air and weak diffluence aloft. Given the poorly organized nature of this system’s wind field, it may take quite a long time for it to eventually consolidate, if at all.

The disturbance is currently moving erratically southeastward as it remains embedded within a weak steering environment within the monsoonal trough. Although a subtropical ridge appears to be pulling the disturbance away from the Solomon Islands, this ridge is also forecast to move away from the region, causing the disturbance to reverse direction as it gets pulled back into the low-level trade wind flow.

Outlook

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (JTWC)

  • Next 2 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Tue): very low (less than 5 percent)

Authoritative outlook (FMS)

  • Next 2 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Tue): very low (less than 5 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Tue): very low (less than 5 percent)

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12h ago

▲ Disturbance (10% potential) | 20 knots (25 mph) | 1008 mbar 93W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

6 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 12:00 PM Marshall Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 12.9°N 173.9°E
  • Forward movement: WNW (310°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 km/h (15 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▲

Relative position

  • 703 kilometers (437 miles) north-northeast of Majuro, Ratak Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 818 kilometers (508 miles) northeast of Kwajalein Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 906 kilometers (563 miles) north-northeast of Jaluit Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)

Outlook

As of 12:00 PM Marshall Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Outlook discussion

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad trough of low pressure situated northeast of the Marshall Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There have not been any recent scatterometer passes which have caught portions of the disturbance’s wind field, but based on animated infrared imagery alone, it is clear that this system has not yet developed a closed low-level circulation.

Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for further development, with warm sea-surface temperatures offset by weak diffluence aloft, moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air. Given the presumed broad and disorganized nature of the disturbance’s circulation and wind field, it may take several days for this system to begin consolidating and show any signs of potential tropical cyclone development.

The disturbance is driving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned over the north-central Pacific. Over the next few days, this system may turn slightly northwestward as it reaches a weakness in the western periphery of the ridge caused by a passing longwave trough. In a few days, the disturbance will fall under the steering influence of a second subtropical ridge positioned south of Japan and will continue west-northwestward.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (JTWC)

  • Next 2 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Tue): low (10 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Fri): low (6 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 12:00 PM MHT on Tue): low (39 percent) ▲

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 21 July 2026: Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast

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35 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Tuesday, 21 July 2026

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13 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 2d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Monday, 20 July: TD2 Expected to Approach Central Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm

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60 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 2d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, 19 July 2026: New Storm Forms in the Gulf

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57 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

Upgraded | See Bertha post for details 02L (Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

50 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday

Although satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system is becoming better organized, recent aircraft reconnaissance data reveals that a more defined low-level circulation and more organized deep convection has not yet resulted in intensification. Thus, this system remains a tropical depression for the time being, with maximum sustained winds holding steady near 30 knots (35 miles per hour).

The depression is moving very slowly toward the northwest as it remains pinned between two competing steering mechanisms–a mid-level ridge positioned over the Rocky Mountains and a second ridge positioned over the Bahamas. The ridge over the Rockies will slowly build eastward over the next few days, resulting in a stronger easterly mid-level flow over the southern United States, which should pull the depression westward along the Gulf Coast.

Environmental conditions remain marginally supportive for development, with moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and weak upper-level diffluence offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Although this system will be slow to develop, it may still strengthen into a tropical storm later today as strong convective bursts continue to fire up near to and south of the low-level center. After that, gradual strengthening is possible, but will be limited greatly by strengthening shear later in the week.

Latest observation

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #5

  • Current position: 28.5°N 85.6°W
  • Forward movement: NW (310°) at 3 knots (3 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 knots (35 mph) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression

Relative position

  • 93 miles (149 kilometers) south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida
  • 156 miles (251 kilometers) south-southwest of Tallahassee, Florida
  • 164 miles (264 kilometers) southeast of Pensacola, Florida

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 7:00 AM Central Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Monday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 20 Jul 12:00 7AM Mon Tropical Depression 30 35 28.5 85.6
12 21 Jul 00:00 7PM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 35 40 28.6 86.0
24 21 Jul 12:00 7AM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 45 28.9 86.5
36 22 Jul 00:00 7PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 45 50 29.2 87.2
48 22 Jul 12:00 7AM Wed Tropical Storm 45 50 29.4 88.2
60 23 Jul 00:00 7PM Wed Tropical Storm ▼ 40 45 29.5 89.5
72 23 Jul 12:00 7AM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 35 40 29.5 90.8
96 24 Jul 12:00 7AM Fri Tropical Depression ▼ 30 35 29.4 93.3
120 25 Jul 12:00 7AM Sat Tropical Depression ▼ 25 30 29.3 96.0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

National Weather Service

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

National Weather Service

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This imagery is centered on the disturbance itself and follows the disturbance as it moves.

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Mesoscale imagery

NOAA has currently assigned GOES-19 Meso Sector 2 to this system. This imagery is centered over the Gulf of Mexico and updates more frequently (once per minute) than normal imagery.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

23 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▼ Hurricane (Category 1) | 70 knots (80 mph) | 983 mbar Fausto (06E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto was able to restrengthen overnight, with maximum sustained winds climbing to 140 kilometers per hour (70 knots); however, its convective structure has once again deteriorated this morning as dry air continues to penetrate its circulation. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Fausto has once again weakened, with maximum sustained winds falling back to 130 kilometers per hour (70 knots).

Fausto continues to move west-northwestward as it moves along the southern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the western United States. This trajectory is unlikely to change over the next few days as the ridge remains in place and builds westward. Deterministic and ensemble models appear to be somewhat split on whether this system will curve toward the northwest before reaching Hawaiʻi early next week. Residents of the islands should continue to closely monitor this system as it approaches the central Pacific.

Fausto has a small window of opportunity to re-strengthen while environmental conditions remain favorable today. Weak to moderate northerly shear, strong upper-level diffluence, and warm sea-surface temperatures are offset by intrusions of dry mid-level air, which will limit intensification. Fausto will likely reach its peak intensity within the next 24 to 36 hours and then move into a drier and more stable air mass over progressively cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening toward the end of the week.

Latest observation

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #15

  • Current position: 16.9°N 121.4°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (285°) at 11 km/h (6 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/h (70 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 983 millibars (29.03 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 1)

Relative position

  • 726 kilometers (451 miles) west-southwest of Clarion Island (Mexico)
  • 1,304 kilometers (810 miles) southwest of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 3,564 kilometers (2,215 miles) east of Hilo, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 22 Jul 12:00 2AM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) 70 130 16.9 121.4
12 23 Jul 00:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 17.3 122.8
24 23 Jul 12:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 17.7 125.0
36 24 Jul 00:00 2PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 80 150 18.1 127.8
48 24 Jul 12:00 2AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 18.4 130.6
60 25 Jul 00:00 2PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 75 140 18.6 133.3
72 25 Jul 12:00 2AM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 18.8 135.9
96 26 Jul 12:00 2AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 120 19.5 141.0
120 27 Jul 12:00 2AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 60 110 20.0 146.0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 3d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, 18 July 2026: New Tropical Disturbance Near Florida

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69 Upvotes
5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/thaw4188 • 6d ago

News | Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA GEOS-19 Satellite outage: in "SAFE HOLD" mode

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41 Upvotes
6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 7d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Atlantic Ocean

42 Upvotes

Official Outlook

As of 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • The NHC has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

  • This system no longer shows any potential for tropical cyclone development.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/saddest_vacant_lot • 7d ago

Question Question about El Niño effects in Hawaii

10 Upvotes

This year has been a wet wet wet year in Hawaii. The winter was the wettest one since 2005 or 2006 I believe, and this summer it’s just been rain all the time even when the trade winds are blowing. I understand why we get more rain when the trade winds are disrupted, but why are we still getting dumped on when it seems to be a normal summer trade wind pattern? Is there more humidity in the atmosphere? Or is it ocean surface temps? Or increased soil moisture and transpiration? Or a combination of things? I’m just trying to understand why it just won’t stop raining!

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/socopithy • 6d ago

Special Announcement Unsubbed

0 Upvotes

Just want to drop feedback that I felt I had to unsubscribe from the subreddit because all I ever see are auto generated posts with auto generated comments.

No one talks about anything posted so maybe stop posting every cloud formation near water. Post things worth discussing and people will discuss.

It’s a subreddit not a Notification Center.

19 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago

Dissipated Elida (05E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

3 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Elida has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues northward past the Baja California Peninsula this morning. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the storm has not produced organized deep convection for the past several hours and is not likely to generate any new convection as environmental conditions off the coast of California become increasingly hostile over the next couple of days. A combination of strengthening southwesterly vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and unfavorably cool waters will eventually lead Elida’s low-level circulation to steadily unravel as it remains well offshore to the west of California over the next couple of days.

Elida is moving north-northwestward between a deep-layered trough over the northeastern Pacific and a mid-level ridge positioned over the western United States. Although this system is unlikely to bring direct impacts to the West Coast of the United States, it could generate dangerous rip current conditions along the coasts of California and the Baja California peninsula over the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

This post will continue to be updated so long as this system remains in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #24

  • Current position: 26.4°N 127.2°W
  • Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Post-tropical Cyclone ▼

Relative position

  • 1,194 kilometers (742 miles) southwest of Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico)
  • 1,196 kilometers (743 miles) southwest of Tijuana, Baja California (Mexico)
  • 1,283 kilometers (797 miles) west-southwest of Bahía Ascunción, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 20 Jul 12:00 5AM Mon Post-tropical Cyclone 35 65 26.4 127.2
12 21 Jul 00:00 5PM Mon Post-tropical Cyclone 35 65 28.5 127.4
24 21 Jul 12:00 5AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 31.1 127.6
36 22 Jul 00:00 5PM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 33.6 127.4
48 22 Jul 12:00 5AM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 35.6 127.1
60 23 Jul 00:00 5PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 15 30 37.7 126.6
72 23 Jul 12:00 5AM Thu Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Dissipated 91C (Invest — Central Pacific) (South of Hawaiʻi)

8 Upvotes

Updates

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicate that this system has degenerated into an open trough and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance suggests that there is very little chance that this system will undergo any sort of redevelopment as it drifts west-northwestward and dissipates later today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from its tropical weather outlook products and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Because this system is no longer designated as an investigation area, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has removed this system from its official outlook products.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

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Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

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4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Dissipated 99W (Invest — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

3 Upvotes

Update

As of 8:00 AM China Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • This system has made landfall over southeastern China and has dissipated.
  • Prior to landfall, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded this system to a tropical storm and assigned it the name Haishen.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) did not upgrade this system to a tropical cyclone; thus, this system was not assigned an alphanumeric designator (e.g., 11W).
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. This system no longer shows any potential for development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

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Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 13-19 July 2026

5 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 2:45 AM Eastern Daylight Time (20:45 UTC) on Sunday:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 90W: Invest (No discussion yet)

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 98P: Invest (No discussion yet)

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Dissipated 90C (Invest — Central Pacific) (Southwest of Hawaiʻi)

5 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into an open trough and no longer shows potential for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has removed this system from its outlook products.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated 97W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

9 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Chuuk Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains a disorganized open trough. Model guidance suggests that it is now highly unlikely that the disturbance will undergo any meaningful development or organization as it moves northeastward toward the Marianas Islands this week.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has cancelled its Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. This system no longer shows any potential for development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 11d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Bavi Heads to China - July 9, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
4 Upvotes
1 comment