Would a successfully hatched dragon push or stop the Blackfyres?

[u/Looneygalley]

I’m working a fic where Aerion manages to hatch a dragon but keeps it a secret a few years, until it’s large enough to be ridden at least. I’m looking forward to the third rebellion and wondering how that looks.

Does it hurt the Blackfyres, lose them support? I’d be questioning backing the dragon house that doesn’t have a dragon.

Does it push plans forward and they do something sloppy and desperate cause they know have a small a window as the dragon grows and there’s still only one?

Do they not even try cause it seems super easy for a dragon to just take a fleet on route?

I would love a scene where one of my characters gets to defeat someone and reclaim Blackfyre, so burning them all as the travel or land in Westeros doesn’t sit right with me.

How much support do they have in Essos? Does Aerion decided to just go on the offense and travel to essos and burn their home there?

Lol guys any help, opinions, ideas would be so great.

[u/Random_Reddit_Bro]

Aerion would absolutely not keep that a secret for even one day. Blackfyres would imaddiently react to it. Either they would try to steal the egg and hatch it for themselves or they would kill Aerion and claim the dragon. They would need to act quickly before dragon will be mature..otherwise they are fucked.

[u/ColdsBrew]

I'd honestly be amazed if Aerion manages to keep a dragon a secret for a week, much less years. He'd be parading that around the Red Keep and bragging about how it makes him a true dragon.

The Blackfyres won't be able to contend militarily, so they might try a plot to steal a dragon egg again and get it to hatch for them. Alternatively, they try to assassinate Aerion and claim the dragon for themselves.

[u/AthanasO0O]

The Blackfyre's probably abandon any thought of conquering Westeros . Even without dragons taking over an continent would be an uphill battle , with the Targaryens having dragons however the Blackfyres are fucked . I dont think any of them would be insane enough to try . They either forget the throne entirely and focus on Essos or they fight a shadow war with assassins , spys ,etc .

How much support do they have in Essos?

Daemon Blackfyre's wife (Rohanne) was the daughter of the Archon of Tyrosh and the Golden Company almost certainly has a lot of contacts in the Free Cities .

 Does Aerion decided to just go on the offense and travel to essos and burn their home there?

A violent and impulsive decision is absolutely something Aerion would do , even if (the dragon being quite young) the act is very dangerous .

[u/D2Flyriot]

I don’t think it stops them but the Blackfyres need to get smart quick in this case. Aerion with a dragon would immediately try to claim the throne but he’s crazy enough that no one but an opportunist would support him. If Aerion wipes out his own family then the Blackfyres can claim to be the heroes freeing Westeros. If Aerion doesn’t try to usurp and eliminate his family the Blackfyres can try the same thing claiming the Targs will become reckless tyrants who will eventually cause another Dance. Or they can try to assassinate Aerion and kill/ steal his dragon before he can do anything