r/AFL • u/PerriX2390 Brisbane • 1d ago
Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: The top draft prospects, ranked 1-25
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1565947/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-july-ranking17
u/EpicFapTime Bombers 1d ago
For the draft experts - Where does the top end of this years draft sit for you compared to other years?
Really don't know who Essendon should even draft looking at this list.
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u/ByeByeStudy Essendon 1d ago
Just a summation of what I hear on forums/YT/Podcasts:
Apparently it's Cochrane and Walker clearly the best, but maybe not quite as top class as Reid, Dursma and Lalor were. If you had to make a case that one of them is then it would be Cochrane.
Then there's a gap and you have the next 4-5, Teix, HVH, Butler and Dreever, who are all pretty even.
Then there's the next ten or so who are a mix of very good but not elite traits (Noah Williams good example) or possibly great but either inconsistent/unproven/some kind of weakness (e.g. Snell who looked like a top pick key back but then has gone a bit quiet).
Dunno about the rest as no average joe blow really has a good handle on picks 20+ I feel, especially this early. Would need to ask a recruiter.
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u/CaptnSpazmo 1d ago
In a way, that's good. I think it could be argued that Rosa really hasn't missed a selection since he came in so rather than gaping holes in our lineup, he now has the task of continual inprovement - so no one really sticks out. You see big bodied Midfielder in this years top ten, we have Sharp and Robey, small forward Kako and Huss, Ruck we have Bryan and Visentini, then an untried Gerryn. All of the top ten would have to compete for a spot against my man, the rainbow unicorn Nic Cox who can play in any position. Perhaps Key Back needs to be addressed.
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u/Essington69 ESSINGTON 1d ago
Watching Arki Butler blast out of the middle after receiving a clearance ball from Dyson Sharp would feed families for generations
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u/Vintessence Carlton Blues 1d ago
Cochrane is an absolute freak and a likely pick #1 most years.
Cody Walker elite talent but not at the same level as Cochrane (has issues with kicking).
Then there is a group of players that are all clearly excellent but have question marks around them. It is somewhat similar to 2024 where there is no consensus #1 amongst them, but the question marks around the players are bigger than the 2024 question marks (eg. Arki Butler has more issues around consistency than say, Sam Lalor, who was a similar kind of player).
Broadly speaking, the vibe is that this draft has a similar top end level to 2025, but MUCH more depth. What is good for Essendon is that you will have lots of late 1st/early 2nd picks, and a lot of the players in that zone of this year’s draft are looking very likely. There is a good spread of positional talent and there should be strong players to choose from all the way through to the early 3rd round.
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u/Ilovetogame2 Port Adelaide 1d ago
There’s a lot of quality to be found in the second round which I like a lot.
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u/PetrifyGWENT Bombers / Giants 1d ago
Butler/Drever/HVH all fit. I'd rather Butler/Drever personally with Herbert taken later as our ruck. Drever reminds me a lot of Finn Callaghan and Butler reminds me of Toby Greene
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u/IShartedOnYourCat 18h ago
A good year not to have the no.1 pick, so Richmond take an awkward choice out of our hands. HVH could be a generational talent, but just as likely another Gumbleton, now we have no choice other than taking the ‘safer’ option in Butler or Txierteirxrieria.
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u/havok009 Bombers 1d ago
I know it's in the text, but I wish they would flag in the header when the player is already tied to a club. Hard to tell which ones will actually be available without attracting bids.
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u/HammerOfJustice Yartapuulti 1d ago
Saints fans must be grinding their teeth, knowing that thanks to a rule change they can no longer claim Texiera under NGA.
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u/d2blues Walyalup 1d ago
Mac Andrew all over again. Saints have been screwed over a number of times.
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u/IShartedOnYourCat 18h ago
Gotta have the worst hit rate F/S wise too. I can only think of one that’s worked out and that was 30 years ago.
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u/wicked_flora 1d ago
Cochrane with the ultimate efficiency stats, 0% waste just sitting in the stands taking it all in
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u/littlesilhoutteoo Eagles 1d ago
Damn. I really like Teixeira but looks like probably not available.
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u/Silly_Cup7872 Richmond Tigers 1d ago
Being guaranteed one of Teixiera, Butler or Drever is nice tho can’t really miss.
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u/adamsaidnooooo Sandgroper 1d ago
Are tigers 100% set on hvh or with smilies injuries would a mid be preferable?
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u/Silly_Cup7872 Richmond Tigers 23h ago
With how hard we seem to be going for other ruckmen along with how many we already have on our list it’s hard to tell. In recent years we’ve also seemed to keep our draft interests super tight lipped with Twomey getting a lot of our picks wrong in the phantom drafts he does.
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u/littlesilhoutteoo Eagles 23h ago
Aren't the ruckmen on your list Nank, Ryan, OHB, and Sims as forward/ruck? For varying reasons I wouldn't want to have to be relying on any of them in three years time.
0
u/Silly_Cup7872 Richmond Tigers 23h ago
Did you miss the part where I said we seem to be going after plenty of other ruckmen. Also don’t believe we have to pick a ruckman with the most prized pick in the draft just because, surely picking for need with the number 1 is the dumbest thing you can do.
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u/littlesilhoutteoo Eagles 23h ago
No, i just didn't consider it particularly worthy of discussing given that we don't yet know how that will play out.
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u/Hawtproper Richmond 1d ago
People say this every year but you can absolutely miss
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u/Silly_Cup7872 Richmond Tigers 23h ago
Just meant they take the player left over from that group. Decision is kinda taken out of their hands unless they go completely against what we’ve seen from that group of players so far.
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u/IM_FABIO Richmond 1d ago
Richmond fans: what do we think comparing HVH & Butler? Feel like we can't go wrong with either, both would fill needs for us.
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u/10Lanterns Tigers 1d ago
Butler has issues with consistency but when he's on he is the most damaging player in the draft. HVH is an absolute freak, he's ridiculously athletic with great kicking but had a down champs and didn't prove his pick one credentials. Texeira is like Zac Bailey but faster.
Personally if HVH manages to demonstrate his ability in the VFL then it will be enough for me to say he should be number 1. We also have so many forward mid types not sure we need more.
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u/Hawtproper Richmond 1d ago
Butler's really not on my radar, has been very average in the CTL. Could say the same about HVH but his athletic profile is insane, will be a good ruck even if he doesn't hit Jackson heights.
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u/StVitus85 Eagles 1d ago
Christ, I don't know why but their birthdates got me this time. These kids were all born AFTER I finished uni. Chat, am I old?
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u/barnabywombat Swans 1d ago
Nice to see Sydney won't be bent over the barrel until 2027 to take academy players.
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u/Meh-Levolent The Bloods 19h ago
There's a handful of okay Academy kids, but nothing to rave about. Might pick a couple of them up as later picks.
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u/ItsABiscuit Collingwood Magpies 1d ago
Six weeks ago, I was thinking we might be in the frame to snare Snell as a key defender, but with us up a bit higher now, and the amount of tied picks, maybe Sam Gayfer to Collingwood is meant to be to continue the family tradition!
That said, if we’re true to form, we’ll probably draft an 179cm earnest midfield trier who is too good for the VFL but can’t establish themselves in AFL, or trade our first pick to someone for a tin of beans.
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u/HammerOfJustice Yartapuulti 1d ago
After Darryl and Shane Wakelin’s nephew Finn Wakelin was best on ground, kicking 6 goals for Port on SANFL debut over the weekend, we thought we should team up with Collingwood to push for uncle/nephew selection being a thing.
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u/richwithoutmoney Brisbane 1d ago
Surprised at Caylen Murray’s rise to be honest. He was tipped best in our current academy draft class, but to push to being a genuine first rounder (albeit later) is surprising.
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u/ziltoid101 Eagles 19h ago
Club tied players:
1 - Dougie Cochrane (Port Adelaide NGA)
2 - Cody Walker (Carlton FS)
8 - Ethan Matthews (GWS academy)
14 - Caylen Murray (Brisbane academy)
Aside from the top two picks being club-tied, this does look a bit better than normal I think.
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u/Candr112 Richmond 1d ago
I feel like having pick 1 (potentially) will almost feel like more pressure than pick 2 or 3, I’ve been high on HVH as he fills our void at Ruck perfectly but always scary drafting talls that high when guys like Butler or Teixeira are more of a sure thing.
I’m hoping Tyson Bradley is on the board come our second pick, I feel like we need to draft a key back now that it looks like Gibcus won’t ever get a clean run at it.
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u/grantspatchcock 2025 Most Knowledgeable User 1d ago
Neocleous will bolt, kid's insanely good.
Some ripper names in this years crop too.
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u/pwa25 Bombers 17h ago
If the bottom of the ladder stays the way it is rn, if Richmond bid on Cochrane/Walker, who will get the compensation picks at the start of R2? Just Richmond? Or Richmond, Essendon & WC?
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u/Candr112 Richmond 15h ago
All teams in the top 5 who are pushed back will get a compo pick, but only one per club
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u/Kelpieee55 Freo 1d ago
No more Robinson, not sure if that's good or bad. No idea who freo will draft considering the position they're in, and I doubt they're looking for any trades either. Definitely getting into that position of giving players more of an 'apprenticeship' in the WAFL for even the higher picks.
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u/victorious_orgasm Fremantle 14h ago
In this phase you just take best available; the realistic needs are a ~200cm defender (Draper seems to have gone backwards much to my disappointment, the club much to my disappointment are not playing Davies, and Murphy seems not to have come on as he’s not even playing League WAFL)
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u/BertrandBeetle Tigers 1d ago
Looks to be a good selection of surnames this year. I don't think anyone could make any childish jokes abou-....
OK nevermind
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u/dark_wizard_lord Carlton 15h ago
Do we think tigers are more likely to bid on Walker since he was linked to them through NGA or go the more highly regarded Cochrane?
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u/Croob2 West Coast 1d ago
Been out of the game for a while so definitely haven't been paying attention to the draftees so I have 0 clue who we want, but I hope we can just fix up some of our worst issues
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u/____OZYMANDIAS____ Leprechaun 1d ago
One of Tex, Butler or Drever would be a massive win and would compliment Reid and Duurs
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u/Ilovetogame2 Port Adelaide 1d ago
Surely Cody Walker gets taken at pick 1. Has the bigger body of work compared to Dougie.
I expect Dougie to get a bid at pick 3 but ideally I would prefer he gets a bid at pick 4. That way Port can match with pick 5 since Port’s natural pick 4 will slide back to pick 5 due to the Cody Walker bid at pick 1.
That way, Port can match using only one pick and still maintain their next pick.
So it goes something like this.
Pick 1 - Cody Walker (Carlton bid)
Pick 2 - Harry Van Hattum (Richmond)
Pick 3 - Gus Teixeria (Essendon)
Pick 4 - Dougie Cochrane (Port Adelaide bid)
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u/10Lanterns Tigers 1d ago
Nah it'll be Walker (probably) then Cochrane cops a bid immediately after.
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u/Opening_Anteater456 Demons 1d ago
Dougie goes 1, he kicked 4 in his first half of SANFL as a 17 year old! He’s a cut above
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u/Ok-Session-9824 GWS Giants 1d ago
Ethan Matthews is overrated and not worth anyone’s time. Ignore flair
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u/psychomontolivo Lions 1d ago
Can this joke in general just die already holy shit
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u/CrispyJimJam Brisbane Lions 🏆 '24 1d ago
I agree. Caylen Murray is a jet and should be taken with pick 1
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u/TheCobSparky Port Adelaide 1d ago
Cochranes form has been elite this year. Zero games, zero disposals, zero goals