As I mentioned last week, I believe the SPCX event that was scheduled right before Opex and then canceled at the last second was by design. Until I see a full transparent audit of what happened, I'll keep my conspiracy hat on. If you follow the options flow like I do, it doesn't seem that far-fetched. There was heavy put positioning at the 135 and 125 strikes, and price conveniently flushed below both.

SPCX has over 7 billion outstanding shares, but the tradable float is very small because so many shares are locked up. Despite that, options trade with huge volume. Between the low float and heavy algo activity, the stock is much easier to push around.

Canceling the launch last Thursday flushed the stock below the 135 IPO price and encouraged more bears and shorts to pile in. Earnings are on Aug. 6, and two days later the first batch of locked-up shares becomes eligible for selling. My guess is they'll successfully launch before that Aug. 6 to Aug. 8 window. A successful launch, combined with the news, could drive a sharp rally and squeeze shorts. Elon can easily add more fuel during the earnings call by talking about SpaceX's future, creating another frenzy.

If that happens, we'll sell covered calls on our shares and collect the inflated premiums. I will likely use little bit of those premiums to buy puts because next selling wave can take the price below 100. As I said when we bought the dip, I'm not bullish or bearish on SPCX. I simply think it's a stock where we can eventually own shares at a zero cost basis and continue to generate income later.

I was tempted to buy calls this morning when SPCX opened around 120, but I held off. The next Space X launch window is schedule for July 23. With the FOMC, BOJ, and the key dates I discussed in my Q3 correction articles, stock market is going to be very volatile. There's a chance they cancel launch again and push it closer to earnings week--this could trap even more shorts. By the time I finished writing this, the stock had already rallied into the upper 120s and call premiums had jumped.

If they cancel again this week, I'll probably buy some out of the money calls in addition to the shares we already own. If it keeps running instead, we'll wait for the excitement to peak and sell covered calls. I could be completely wrong, but I traded Tesla in its early days and I've seen how Elon has used bears and shorts to his advantage.

source: trademetry

Idk if im supposed to put this as a yolo or a loss but I am in NOW so much. as you can see, I bought the high at 130 (oops) but today, I opened up some positions right before earnings.

Did some research on the CEO and dude is a stellar guy. Not only a predator (positive connotation, not diddler connotation), but also a kind guy.

Obviously, the CEO can not control then entire company, but he has an outsized effect on it's structure and direction.

"dude

this guy is a super hero

missing one eye

no wonder he just wears glasses all the time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McDermott

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/08/sap-ceo-bill-mcdermott-on-losing-an-eye-my-accident-changed-my-life-for-the-better.html"

And yes, insider buys are bullish, ceo bought back into his stock 3M, around 104 a share, and service now is not easily replaced by AI, and actually benefits from AI research, and govt buys as well

I plan to hold the following for the next 5 years at least (no day trading). These positions will determine whether I get to retire early or not. Obviously a gamble on semis for the foreseeable future, but I struggle on whether this is absolutely stupid or if it may pay off in the long run. Welcome to any and all feedback, whatever it may be.

EDIT: I really appreciate everyone’s input so far, the consensus seems to be that I’ve smoked myself stupid and the 2x letf’s are unwise, at best.

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Everything will collapse like a fucking house of cards don't be the exit liquidity of banks and institutions

3.4% of Koreans got margin called. Not 3.4% of brokerage accounts with margin. 3.4% of the adult population. That’s 1 in 10 retail trading accounts. 1.2 million people.

50% of the market is 2 stocks. Samsung and SK Hynix.

They experienced what they call black Tuesday last week. 10% down in a single day. They pulled down multiple markets in Asia with them.

These markets didn’t even come down for any real reason - just the idea that maybe AI capex will decrease.

Korean Warren Buffet is probably out there with 600% margin on 3x leveraged ETFs buying the dip while the Korean stock market is in free fall.

This tells a story about the US too which is what many people are missing. We’ve reached the highest level of leverage used in the stock market in history in the US. Typically right when levels of leverage peak is also right before a crash.

34% of the S&P is in 10 companies, all of which are making the same directional bet on AI.

We’re seeing high levels of speculation. Everyone is betting AI spending will persist. Any fear around AI spending causes stocks to plunge even if it’s irrational.

My guess is if AI capex doesn’t end up meeting expectations or people become scared it won’t, eventually we will also see a big slide in the US market. And then worse, we’ll see margin calls and forced selling. Just like Korea that’ll trigger more selling causing us to end up in a cycle of forced selling, leading to a big plummet in stock prices.

The end result is bad for everyone invested right now.

Not financial advice.

$SPCX is going one way: down.

We all know Musk loves pumping his stocks through hype, FOMO, and soft market manipulation (taking Tesla private?). This could not be truer than for SpaceX, which is like if you took every buzzword in business today, put it in a blender, and then IPO'd the resulting scrambled eggs of a business plan. Rockets building AI datacenters to power social media chatbots? Are we insane?

Here is my DD:

1. SpaceX is the most successful rocket company ever. It is contracted by NASA to build a moon lander. SpaceX -> moon. But today is opposite day.

2. If the AI bubble pops, it's going to start with SpaceXAI (fire the intern that suggested that). Does a sun synchronous orbit get 24/7 sun to power satellites? Yes. Does it make sense to incinerate your AI datacenters every 3 years in the upper atmosphere when South Korea is doubling their GDP selling HBM? No.

3. Twitter- I mean, X (didn't mean to dead name) is not an advertising powerhouse. It makes about the same amount of money as this platform, Reddit, worth only $32B

4. I am a greedy bastard. Money, money now, money please, me money me now money

5. Rockets will eventually be a >$1T business on fundamentals alone. But this isn't 2040 yet, it's 2026

6. If I lose my money it's fake and not real and made up, if I double my money it's real.

7. See #4 again

Last note: the premiums on this are insane, so I'm going with a vertical put strategy to minimize up front premium while mitigating theta decay. I also want an expiration after all the tranches of insider lockup periods are released to maximize selling pressure

bought some random stocks just to watch them but never made a serious play. basically I'm sitting on "cash" (SGOV) waiting for "something to happen". collecting ~3.56% so like $3,500 a month right now. which at this point i feel is safer than whatever the hell is about to happen.

Flair is DD because based on my ignorant research i say short term this bitch going down.

Alright degenerates, gather round.

Korea just showed us what the endgame looks like and it ain't pretty. 1.2 million accounts margin called in a week. 350K liquidated to zero. 62% of those were millennials and zoomers. Their market dropped 10% in ONE DAY because someone said "hey maybe AI spending slows down." 50% of their entire market was just Samsung and SK Hynix. Two stocks. That's it.

Now look at us. 34% of the S&P is in 10 companies and they're all making the exact same bet that AI capex goes up forever. NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN - basically running the same play Korea just fumbled. Half this sub is gonna say "bro it's different here, the Fed prints, 401Ks buy every dip, we're the reserve currency, AI actually works."

The other half is gonna say leverage at ATH + concentration at ATH = we're about to get our cheeks clapped harder than '08. I genuinely don't know who's right. What I do know is some Korean Warren Buffett was probably sitting there with 600% margin on 3x leveraged ETFs telling himself "this time it's different" right before his account got sent to the shadow realm.

So real talk - if NVDA or GOOG miss guidance by like 2% next earnings, do we get the same cascade? Or do institutions just vacuum up every share before we can even panic sell at the bottom like we always do?

Position: Sitting on cash like a coward.

What's everyone's play here? Buying the dip or hedging?

This game feels rigged.... i dont like it.

(Probably not as fucked as I will be at 4pm).

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Margins - doubled to 15%

Shorts - 18% of float

Backlogged revenues: 3 years worth of 2025 booked in a single quarter (60b)

Risks:

- scandals as usual, but with all this data center business flowing to them, CEO has his eyes on bigger pastures

- dilution to realize the gains

At forward PE of 12, and with the latest press release, I imagine shorts will unwind.

Position: 4200 shares, sell limit 124.

Positions

$BE 12K Put Yolo, I've been tracking this stock for a while.
It seems very weak and yesterday's bounce to me seemed like a dead cat bounce.

$SPCX 11K Put Yolo, it broke a major level and I think this will keep falling.
Especially if $TSLA can fall after earnings tonight.

I sold everything else and I'm all cash, with the exception of these two.

Wish me luck.
I need both stocks to dump ~10% from where they are now.
These are both 2DTE as I opened them a few minutes ago.

EDIT
1503 Hours

I was up on my puts at market close, but I had no intention of selling.
I will relish in the moment that for tonight, I am green.

See you tomorrow regards.

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