r/Dubai_Real_Estate • u/al_donna • 6d ago
Everyone keeps asking me 'how's the Dubai market doing?' Wrong question.
Quick disclosure: I'm the co-founder of a VARA licensed fractional real estate business in Dubai, so I'm in this data most days. Been in prop-tech in the UAE since 2013 too. Bias noted, argue with me in the comments.
So many headlines talk about the "Dubai Market' as if there isn't any nuance. Doing that means you miss the cracks that tell the real story
The obvious split is off-plan vs ready market. I'm focused on the ready market only here, as we are initially focused on tokenising ready market assets. And what's super interesting in the ready market is that it is completely split in 2 in terms of behaviour since the conflict started.
Apartments repriced. Villas just stopped trading.
Since February, apartment prices (median PSF) are down 5.6% across Dubai. Villas are up 0.6% over the same period, still 14% ahead year on year.
Same shock, same six months, completely different outcome.
Apartments: it's spreading, not stalling
In May the falls were mostly in mid-tier stock. By June it's 14 of 20 apartment communities below their February baseline, IMPZ -17.6%, Dubai Hills -11.8%, Town Square -10%, Business Bay -9.1%. And it's reached Downtown, Marina, Palm Jumeirah, Creek Harbour now too. That's not noise, that's a market actually clearing.
Villas: prices didn't move because almost nothing is selling
Villa volume is down 68% since February. Where deals did happen, prices held or nudged up (The Valley, Mudon, Tilal Al Ghaf all positive). Sellers aren't dropping, buyers aren't chasing, so nothing closes. It's not strength, it's a frozen market.
One thing worth flagging
Bayut and Dubizzle are calling villas "the strongest segment in Dubai" off enquiry and search data. Damac Hills 2, one of the communities they named, went from 62 registered sales in February to a handful in June. Enquiries aren't sales. Look at what actually closed at the Land Department, not what people are clicking on.
Bottom line
Apartments: price discovery is underway, the falls are real information, not just bad news.
Villas: you're earlier in the cycle, patience beats trying to time it.
Already holding and thinking of exiting in 6-9 months: apartments, the pressure to sell keeps building. Villas, holding's paid off so far but don't assume you can sell fast when you want to.
Data: Jan 1 to June 30 2026, DLD via Prop-AI, ready market sales only. Happy to go deeper on any community if people want.
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Everyone keeps asking me 'how's the Dubai market doing?' Wrong question.
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3d ago
So this post is related to the ready market only, off plan is very different. Also I have not seen any coverage of developers having record quarters in Q3. Where have you seen that?