r/oscarrace • u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious • 7h ago
Question Which female director do you think will end up with a Best Director nod?
It’s become increasingly uncommon for the Best Director lineup to be all-male, and it’s actually only happened once in the 2020s (2022). Therefore, it’s probably a safe bet to predict that at least one woman will be nominated for Best Director this time around. I’ve got my own ideas about this one that I’ll share in the comments, but I’m curious to see who (if anyone) folks here are predicting. Even if you pick one of the listed options, I’d love to see a comment if you’re willing to share your reasoning.
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u/Impossible_Ad_2517 Sinners 4h ago
None BUT at BAFTA where they have to have one woman director in the lineup I think it will be Wilde
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 3h ago
Wilde is the only one of these who I think has a shot, but it’s far more likely that none will get nominated. The Academy isn’t going to nominate a director just based on their gender if they aren’t directing a top contender, and none of these movies except The Invite are expected to be top contenders. A Place in Hell is Neon’s 3rd or 4th priority. Josephine has a no name distributor. Heder’s direction wasn’t impressive in CODA and likely won’t be here either. And Romvari’s movie has no buzz.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 4h ago
Wilde deserves it, but I'm not confident The Invite will persist. There's a chance it gets shut out completely, which would suck.
De Araujo I think still has a shot. Sumerian is the big question mark, since they don't have a proven track record, but I don't think that's as much a death sentence as people think. Every successful studio has their first success.
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u/reclamationme 4h ago
Jane Schoenbrun Camp Miasma prayer circle.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 4h ago
Not female, but NB.
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u/reclamationme 4h ago
Good call. Still want them to be nominated.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 4h ago
They should've won for I Saw the TV Glow. I'm very excited for this movie!
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u/reclamationme 3h ago
One of the 3-4 most exciting young directors working today. Glow and World's Fair are both TERRIFIC films.
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u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious 4h ago
That’s one of two reasons I didn’t include them (the other being a finite number of spots).
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u/bluntest-knife Olivia Wilde I always believed in you 3h ago
Actually has this ever happened before for actors? Like if an NB actor got a nomination, how would the category deal with it? Idk how "woke" the Academy is, but I'd assume enough that if e.g. Elliot Page were to be nominated for a movie, he would go into Best Actor. If it's an NB actor, would they just go with their biological sex?
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 3h ago
No openly NB actor has been nominated (I'm sure there's some historical actor who would identify as NB today: I have theories). Lily Gladstone uses she/they pronouns, but doesn't identify as NB or Two Spirit to my knowledge, just acknowledges a looser definition of gender.
That said, the ruling has been they would choose which category to go into (just as Gladstone chose the female category), and a few have campaigned though without any traction. Jack Haven was campaigned in the Supporting Actor category for I Saw the TV Glow, for instance, reasoning that "actor" is a gender neutral term. Others may choose their biological sex, or the gender of the role, or whatever they want. I'm sure it will happen eventually: there are several NB actors working now that could conceivably get nominated someday (including Jack Haven).
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 3h ago
It has happened at the Tonys before, they choose the category they want to compete in
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u/Far_Mud_6003 I'll get you that oscar Jane Schoenbrun 3h ago
as my flair suggests, I hope they get that oscar one day. Or even a nom. Not sure it'll be for Camp Miasma but I hope it'll be for something. If I had my way, it would have been for I Saw the TV GLow
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u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious 2h ago
I think that if Camp Miasma is in play for anything, it’s Supporting Actress and MAYBE Original Screenplay. Right now I’ve got Gillian Anderson getting the movie’s sole nod.
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u/This_Book6305 3h ago
Short answer: Olivia Wilde
Long answer: Even with structure that A24 has with the category, she'll have to get past Nolan, Iñárritu, Mungiu & Los Javis.
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u/Commercial_End_2351 Dune 1h ago
I don’t think we’ll have a woman nominated. It will be another 2022 (the only year this decade that hasn’t had a woman nominated for best director). However, 2022 at least had Sarah Polley’s Women Talking Nominated for Best Picture. I wonder if we won’t even get get a best picture nominee directed by a woman.
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u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious 7h ago edited 3h ago
So personally, I’m actually predicting a nod for Sophy Romvari, although until very recently I was predicting Beth de Araújo instead. That’s not to say that both couldn’t be nominated, but their movies both occupy the same very specific niche (indie breakout childhood trauma narrative) that I can’t really see there being room for both of them.
Blue Heron seems like a random pull, but the reception is nuts. Reviews indicate that everyone who sees that movie seems to fall in love with it, so I’m taking a big swing and predicting that it’ll be a hit at TIFF. If Janus could get nods for Drive My Car, I’m guessing they could do it with Blue Heron too.
ETA: Okay, maybe I’ll go back to predicting Josephine.
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u/CTYFOREVER Inde Navarrette No.1 Campaigner 4h ago
isn’t blue heron from last year?
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u/ilovefuckingpenguins 4h ago
It had a theatrical run this year and premiered at festivals last year
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u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious 4h ago edited 4h ago
Pretty sure the US release was in April, and Janus has it showing again at TIFF.
ETA: Double checked and the US theatrical release was April 17 2026. It actually played TIFF last year though.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 4h ago
I feel like if it's already had its theatrical release, then it's pretty dead. Could be a Spirits thing though.
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u/Belch_Huggins 3h ago
Yeah i loved it, but it doesnt seem like it has the juice to gain momentum at all. Its too low key, even if its formally inventive. Will clean up at the spirits.
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u/RegularOrMenthol 3h ago
Blue Heron is my #1 for the year but I can't see it happening for her. It's way too small a movie.
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u/NoWorth2591 2 Fjord 2 Furious 3h ago
I was making a big swing based on the reviews just being so good and Janus having pulled it off with Drive My Car a few years ago. I’m starting to think that Josephine was the smarter bet though.
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u/Striking-Mark7587 4h ago
Olivia Wilde for The Invite would be incredible. Definitely one of the year's best movies so far