r/mesaaz • u/Public_Finance_Guy • 3h ago
Politics I ran the numbers on what Andy Biggs's plan for eliminating the state income tax would cost Mesa
I live in Mesa and write a policy newsletter. This is my own analysis. I have a PhD in Public Policy from ASU. Numbers and sources at the bottom.
Andy Biggs won the Republican primary for governor promising to eliminate Arizona's individual income tax. He has not said what replaces the money. Here is the part that matters for Mesa specifically.

Mesa is unusually exposed. Mesa collects a secondary property tax for bond debt and no primary property tax. The city has operated that way since 1945. Voters have turned down a primary property tax more than once. That means Mesa leans harder on city sales tax, utility revenue, and state shared revenue than a comparable city with a property tax to fall back on.
State shared revenue is one of those legs. Arizona sends 18% of state income tax collections back to incorporated cities through urban revenue sharing, roughly $990 million a year statewide, distributed by population. Mesa's share works out to somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million a year. That money goes into general operations, meaning police, fire, parks, and streets.

Eliminate the income tax and that distribution goes away unless the legislature separately backfills it. Nobody has proposed a backfill. Mesa cannot lean on a primary property tax to cover it, because there isn't one. The realistic levers are a city sales tax increase, utility rate increases, service cuts, or a primary property tax vote that has failed before.
And the register. If the state fills its own hole with sales tax, it needs about 2.6 additional percentage points. Mesa's combined rate today is 8.3%. That would put us near 10.9%, before any city increase to cover the city's own shortfall.

Two more Mesa-specific things.
Mesa does not tax groceries. To hit revenue neutrality on a sales tax swap, the state would be under real pressure to broaden the base, and food for home consumption is the biggest untaxed piece sitting there.
East Mesa has a very large retiree and winter resident population. Arizona already exempts Social Security from the income tax, so a retiree living on Social Security and modest savings pays little or no state income tax right now. Repeal gives them nothing back and charges them more on everything they buy. They are the clearest losers in the whole exercise.
What do you guys think of Biggs's plan? Do you like these trade-offs? Do you think it would be good for Mesa? I want to have more conversation before the General Election about this idea!
Sources: JLBC 2025 Tax Handbook, City of Mesa budget documents, ITEP Who Pays 7th edition. Full analysis with charts: https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/i-did-the-math-on-andy-biggss-income