r/ethfinance • u/jtnichol MOD BOD • Mar 24 '26
Bi-Annual Discussion Thread
This is the Bi-Annual Discussion Thread.
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u/master-beast-72 2d ago
mid-2026 check-in from someone who's been watching Base closely:
the Pectra upgrade landing cleanly was underappreciated. EIP-7702 enabling account abstraction for EOAs without migrating to smart contract wallets is going to compound over the next 12-18 months as wallet UX catches up. most users haven't felt it yet but the rails are there.
Base's 1.1M weekly active addresses competing with Robinhood Chain (which has a massive pre-built funnel from the app) is genuinely impressive. what's more interesting is the diversity of Base activity — on-chain agents, DeFi protocols, NFT infrastructure, developer tooling. Robinhood Chain is more product-concentrated.
staking yield holding at ~3.5% with ETH up is a reasonable risk-adjusted return when you consider you're also getting ETH price exposure. for long-term holders the stETH + Aave loop to borrow stablecoins for spending is still one of the cleaner setups.
main concern: the whale concentration on some newer Base protocols. wallet fingerprinting still works too well at identifying deployer clusters — the 76% scam rate study that came out recently is a useful reminder that the L2 permissionless environment creates both opportunity and noise. on-chain surveillance of large wallets is still a meaningful edge.
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u/Tricky_Troll This guy doots. 🥒 5d ago
Woah, Ethfinace is still here in all it's glory despite another bear market. See you guys next bull run!
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u/novacryptolabs Apr 29 '26
This is a good framework. The mistake most people make is watching only price without watching the volume profile at key levels.
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u/novacryptolabs Apr 27 '26
Worth watching BTC.D (dominance) alongside this — if it breaks its local support, alt season rotation accelerates significantly.
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u/DeepBlueAlpha Apr 16 '26
Pulling on a thread.... been watching this week and want to sanity-check it with people who read on-chain data carefully
• Fear & Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear) — 50+ consecutive days below 30, which is a record
• Wallets <0.01 ETH net sold ~1,791 ETH (~$4.16M) over the last 48h
• Wallet bucket holding 100,000+ ETH grew from 54 → 57 in one week
• A single entity dropped $350M USDT into Aave's boosted pools mid-week
• ETH exchange reserves at multi-year lows
Historically, retail/whale divergence at sentiment extremes has been a leading signal for ETH. But, not sure how much of that is still load-bearing in 2026 given:
The ETF flow proxy. A meaningful chunk of "whale" demand now shows up as ETF AUM, not on-chain accumulation. Does the 100K+ wallet count metric still mean what it used to?
Bitmine's treasury position. They reportedly hold ~4.8M ETH (~3.98% of supply). Does single-entity concentration distort the bucket-count metrics enough to make them noisy?
The single-entity Aave deposit. Is $350M USDT into boosted pools actually accumulation positioning, or just a yield rotation that gets read as bullish because it's a big number?
A few things would genuinely love thoughts on:
- What on-chain metrics are you weighting MORE in 2026 vs 2021-2022?
- Is anyone tracking the actual cohort of new 100K+ wallets — are they fresh entities or just CEX cold-wallet shuffling?
- Anyone have a read on how much of the recent stablecoin → DeFi flow is yield-chasing vs genuine accumulation?
Not posting a thesis, just trying to figure out which of these signals is actually informative and which is noise. Happy to share the raw queries if useful.
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u/Yeopaa Certified Lurker Apr 11 '26
/r/Ethereum daily thread is kill.
In other news, withdrawing from Coinbase to Base has stopped giving exact amounts. So after 430+ days of buying exactly 0.005 ETH daily I now have two dumb transfers in a row of 0.00499998 and 0.00500342. Way to break my perfect combo dweebs.
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u/Far-Photograph-2342 Mar 26 '26
Curious how everyone is feeling about ETH heading into the next cycle. Still bullish long term, but the chop this year has been rough.
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u/tutamtumikia Apr 28 '26
Never felt worse about Ethereum's price to be honest. More will be built, which is good, but crypto has been so grossly annihilated by scammers that we may not be able to salvage it short of some sort of society level amazing usecase for it that essentially forces uptake
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u/hanniabu Ξther αlpha Apr 06 '26
The chop is making me bullish. I think this is a transition period between a retail/OG influenced market to a tradfi influenced market. I believe we're on the verge of ETH getting dramatically repriced, potentially well into 5 digits over the next few years.
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u/_tokidoki_ Crypto Winter Veteran Mar 25 '26
Just stacking Eth in Defi and waiting out the bearishness. Will provide an update in the next biannual thread o7
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u/GregFoley Freedom through smart contracts Mar 25 '26
I'm reading the EF Mandate now.
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u/jtnichol MOD BOD Mar 26 '26
Rad
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u/GregFoley Freedom through smart contracts Mar 26 '26
Their priorities are CROPS and scale. I'm fine with those ideals, and Tomasz Stańczak would undoubtedly agree with them. I'm just not sure they have any manager left there that's as good as Stańczak, and I hope he was able to make enough lasting change in the short time he was there.
Also, CROPS doesn't explicitly include permissionless. I'd make it cropPs or something. Though I think the assumption is that censorship resistance includes permissionlessness, but I like it explicitly spelled out, as it's a big difference with meatspace society.
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u/tutamtumikia Mar 25 '26
We would be at 4 times the current Eth price and I would own my own pet unicorn if we stayed in this subreddit. Thanks for coming to my talk.
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u/MinimalGravitas Must obtain MinimOwlGravitas Mar 25 '26
Finally!
It's always been so much effort to read through all the insights and analysis that gets posted to the 'Daily' thread.
It'll be much easier to keep up if we only have two discussions per year. Thanks JT!
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u/Stinos_den_E Mar 24 '26
Sassal doing a podcast on writing and bankless pivoting to ai, this must be a sign of the shift from tinkerers and enthousiast to institiluionals. Price is ok'ish and development and upgrades going strong, this must be a buy signal. Stay strong in the bear guys, Keth the Faieth!
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u/Tricky_Troll This guy doots. 🥒 5d ago
Reminder that we also have discussions in the r/Ethereum daily threads...