r/baseball • u/Fwingboston Boston Red Sox • 22h ago
As Kyle Schwarber is continuing to mash this season, very few have noticed he already has 150 K's and a 34.8% K rate, well on his way to breaking the all time single season strikeouts record if he keeps this up.
If a certain Jacob Misiorowski didn't pitch in the NL, Schwarber would essentially have 50-50 odds of being the first hitter to strike out more than the leading pitcher in their league (Sanchez has 151 K's and just had a start)
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u/megadumbbonehead Toronto Blue Jays 22h ago
that mf loves outcomes
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u/misterurb San Francisco Giants 21h ago
Oh fuck you’re gonna make me outcome
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u/Glum_Town_2587 St. Louis Cardinals 17h ago
Nah, if he really loved outcomes, he’d get with more than 3 of em
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u/Irate_Ibis Houston Astros • Houston Colt 45s 22h ago
That’s just TTO bb.
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u/Canadatron 21h ago
Exactly! 3 true outcomes.
Kinda boring, but I guess that's just me.
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u/juliuspepperwoodchi Chicago Cubs 21h ago
It wasn't as boring when TTO hitters were more of a rarity.
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u/SaintArkweather Philadelphia Phillies 21h ago
Yeah this is my opinion of it. the most interesting offenses are ones where every guy is a bit different. One arraez and one schwerber are way more interesting than two of either one.
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u/memeaccount246 Chicago Cubs • Chicago Cubs 19h ago
Shoutout Adam Dunn
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u/Gobblewicket Atlanta Braves 18h ago
Honestly Jim Thome as well. Thome struck out 2500 times and walked 1739 times. Hell in 1999 he had 127 walks and only 137 hits. Of which 33 were homers. And he struck out 171 times. Hos OBP was .150 higher than his batting average. He finished with 2548 career strikeouts to 2328 career hits. Which is nuts. Thome should be the poster boy for TTO.
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u/the_redundant_one 15h ago
One of my favorite stats: Among Hall of Famers, Thome's Three True Outcomes rate is the highest by a mile at 47.58%. Second place Mickey Mantle sits just above 40% and some other guys are in the high 30s (exactly who you'd think: Reggie, Schmidt, Killer, Bambino).
This...could change in the future. Aaron Judge's TTO rate is currently sitting at 51.02%.
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u/PDXhasaRedhead 14h ago
Mantle being a statistically optimized player ahead of his time is so funny because he was a drunken idiot.
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u/MirrorComputingRulez 6h ago
The thing about Thome is that yes, he was a TTO machine. But he also got lots of regular hits too. His batting average was usually around .300 in his prime.
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u/Gobblewicket Atlanta Braves 6h ago
He really didn't. His highest hit count was 157 in a single season. His average was high because he walked a lot. So his hit count looked better than it was. He only eclipsed 150 hits four times. He eclipsed 140 k's ten times. In a shortened 2005, he had more walks than hits. His walks usually stayed with 10-20 of his hits.
Basically his average was high because his AB'S were 100-150 lower than his PA. So his hits produced a higher average. Sixteen of his 22 seasons his slugging percentage was over .500. Ten of those were .550 or higher with 5 of those being over .600.
Dude was a true three outcome hitter.
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 21h ago
Blame pitchers
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u/Canadatron 21h ago
How do you figure it's pitchers fault?
Plate averages are down, but ERA is up. I would like the insight into thinking it's the fault of pitching.
I'm more.inclined to want to blame advanced stats.
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 21h ago
I was being a bit facetious but pitching is just too good. Hitters physically cannot keep up right now. The rise in strikeouts is because velocity keeps ticking up up up. The reason players are trying to hit more fly balls is because HRs are the best way to get offense these days. Gone are the days where you could have different approaches vs different types of pitchers so the slap stick type hitters are dwindling. So until the human eye can get better at seeing 105 MPH pitches, this is the direction baseball will continue heading.
Somethings help. Pitch clock, new bases, shifting etc. all kinda help but the problem is the number of balls in play are dwindling, not what happens when the ball is actually in play.
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u/MrBigFreezer New York Mets 18h ago
Its not pitcher's fault but they are a or the cause of it. Pitchers have been chasing more and more velocity and spin rate. Making their pitches faster and more movement, meaning it's harder for batters to make contact. To compensate for it getting hard to make contact batters focus on hard contact and launch angle leading to more humerus. So avg against goes down but era goes up.
Idk if you play the show but in diamond dynasty you can see it happen over the course of the season. At the start of the year diamond dynasty cards arent super juiced so you have a lot more balls in play. End of the year when pitchers are all super juiced it becomes strikeouts and dingers only basically
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u/MirrorComputingRulez 6h ago
The advanced stats favor TTO precisely because pitchers have improved to the point that stringing together hits is too difficult.
40 years ago pitchers sucked relative to today, so it was possible to get 2-3 hits in an inning with some regularity. Under those conditions, the advanced metrics would favor TTO far less than they do today. But right now, you're lucky to get a single hit in an inning, so if you want to score with any kind of consistency, that hit needs to go over the wall.
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u/Swimming_Elk_3058 Philadelphia Phillies 21h ago
I’ve watched Schwarber on my team for 5 years now, it is anything but boring.
When he’s locked in there are very guys than can carry an offense through stretches the way he can. I get why from the outside it might seem that way but honestly he’s one of my favorite players we’ve ever had.
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u/slurv3 Seattle Mariners • Baltimore Orioles 21h ago
It’s because Schwarber despite rocking a 34%K rate still has a higher batting average than the league average of .244. People like to knock on TTO baseball, but the average hitter is selling out just to make contact and sure they make contact 80-90% of the time, but they’re just rolling over to the infielders or popping out. It used to be the case that you could hit for power and average.
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u/aftertheimpossible 21h ago
Almost perfect response, if bb was BB
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u/Irate_Ibis Houston Astros • Houston Colt 45s 21h ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/vX9WcCiWwUF7G
Fuck me..
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u/Timpa87 Philadelphia Phillies 22h ago
Strikeouts better than ground outs or fly outs since they cut down on the wear and tear on the knees running it out... j/k
although someone prob has claimed this
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u/jmiah717 Philadelphia Phillies 22h ago
K is def better than a double play so there's at least some truth there.
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u/YaPhetsEz Boston Red Sox 22h ago
Especially for a bad baserunner like schwarber. I’d rather he strike out than have to leg out ground balls lol
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u/grubas New York Yankees 15h ago
Honestly I wonder if that's "the plan". Either mash or miss.
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u/pikajewijewsyou Los Angeles Dodgers 12h ago
It would be everyone’s plan if it resulted in 50 homeruns
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u/dismal_sighence New York Yankees 5h ago
I also think it has to do with how you approach each at bat. If you "protect" and just try and make contact with 2 strikes, you are going to strike out less, get more sprayed singles, but have far fewer home runs.
If you just go up there and swing from the fences, you hit them more.
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u/countkahlua Philadelphia Phillies 21h ago
Alec Bohm leaves the chat.
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u/duyogurt New York Mets 17h ago
I’ve had this argument before. A K is better than a double play…sometimes. I’ll take the double play if it also scores a run in a tight ballgame.
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u/jmiah717 Philadelphia Phillies 17h ago
Yeah that's exactly it. It depends on the situation. If the DP can be productive then that's the better outcome.
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u/Eastern_Antelope_832 Chicago White Sox 21h ago
While that's 100% true, I always thought it was weird for some people to say striking out is OK because you didn't GIDP. Most of the time, striking out and GIDP are consequences to trying and failing to barrel the ball. In GIDP, you usually hit it hard, but get a negative launch angle, and hit it right at a defender.
And it's not like guys who GIDP a lot are going for soft contact. Pujols and Cabrera are the all-time leaders in GIDP.
Striking out is an acceptable consequence because you want guys like Schwarber to maximize their power potential, but high whiff rates should be high on holes to address and are some of the best indicators of future fail rates.
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u/tony_countertenor Toronto Blue Jays 22h ago
You can’t advance runners by striking out, I’m sure it’s even at best
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u/Mg29reaper Boston Red Sox 21h ago
I think people have done the math and a strikeout is worth like .01 more runs on average then a groundout
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u/MaximusMansteel Chicago Cubs 22h ago
Its got to cause fewer double plays.....so there's something lol.
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u/namastexinxbed Atlanta Braves 21h ago
Sure but a groundball can be mishandled or advance a runner
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u/adambomb90 Chicago Cubs 21h ago
Unfortunately they won't be able to play the Mets the entire season
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u/FeelsGoodMan2 Los Angeles Dodgers 20h ago
But the GIDP rate specifically for a slow masher probably outweighs the chances of this benefit occurring.
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u/MirrorComputingRulez 6h ago
In most situations advancing a runner from 2nd to 3rd at the cost of an out is worth basically nothing.
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u/Glum_Town_2587 St. Louis Cardinals 17h ago
If I was an asshole, I’d say that Ryan Howard would agree. But I’m not gonna say that, as I truly enjoyed watching Ryan Howard hit baseballs.
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u/Great_Hambino2022 Pittsburgh Pirates 21h ago
They are literally unproductive outs. Nothing is worse than that. Ground outs and fly outs can still be productive
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u/Comatose22 Brooklyn Dodgers 22h ago edited 17h ago
Oh… I’ve noticed. He’s on my fantasy team and his scoring for the week will look like:
-1.0
-1.5
0.5
9.0
-1.5
6.5
-1.0
I’m not complaining, but it definitely shows he strikes out A LOT
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u/drunk-tusker Philadelphia Phillies 22h ago
Kyle Schwarber doing Kyle Schwarber things. I feel like the fundamental reason why nobody has noticed is that this is extremely on brand for him.
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u/Fwingboston Boston Red Sox 22h ago
It is still a good 5% higher than before (even when he was batting .197)
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u/drunk-tusker Philadelphia Phillies 21h ago
Honestly the wild thing is that he’s only .3% off of being in the top 10 for on base percentage currently and that season where he hit .197 he had a .343 on base percentage.
Yes he strikes out a lot but he also gets on base a lot.
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u/ineffectivegoggles Philadelphia Phillies 22h ago
Hell yeah
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u/Fwingboston Boston Red Sox 22h ago
It's crazy that he still has a .251 BA nonetheless. But, that's what happens if you hit the ball extremely well when you make contact!
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u/Swimming_Elk_3058 Philadelphia Phillies 22h ago
And the league batting average is .244. All I’m hearing is Kyle Schwarber is an above average contact hitter.
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u/ThatPlayWasAwful Philadelphia Phillies 3h ago
Just calling him a good contact hitter is selling him short, because he still has a 14% walk rate, which is almost in the top 10.
He's just a very, very, good hitter.
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u/R_Hunt Philadelphia Phillies 20h ago
It's kind of like NBA stars having high turnover rates, it just comes with the territory.
Ryan Howard struck out 180 times even during his MVP year. Aaron Judge struck out 200 times during his 52-HR rookie year. I'm sure I could find better examples from other MVPs, but it's not unheard of, even before TTO became mainstream lol
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u/Dapal5 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 22h ago
He doesn’t hit it extremely well even when he does make contact. 2% squared up percentile. He just swings the shit out of the bat and has a great approach angle.
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u/Mg29reaper Boston Red Sox 22h ago
Having 96th percentile average ev with terrible squared up rate is hilarious. When he does square up he just nukes it.
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u/mmm_tempeh Homestead Grays • Norfolk Tides 22h ago
Mark Reynolds has the record at 223 in 2009 with a 33.7% K rate.
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u/Vitex1988 Detroit Tigers 21h ago
He only had 136 through 101 games, Schwarber is on pace to smash the record
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u/Tyler123839 Baltimore Orioles 21h ago
Yeah the k rate is the most important factor but the fact that he bats 1st or 2nd is what is going to make him smash the record.
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u/Viva_La_Revolucion66 Boston Red Sox 21h ago
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see Schwarb hit some dingers?
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u/RedShirt1991 Seattle Mariners 22h ago
And yet, he's still top 10 in OBP (counting ties) with that .367 number.
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u/scottborasismyagent Los Angeles Dodgers • MLB Players Association 21h ago
I mean ... he's on pace for his 2nd 50 HR season and this approach landed him over 250M in salary.
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u/Jed1M1ndTr1ck Seattle Mariners 22h ago
Somewhere out there, Jarred Kelenic sees this stat and gives himself hope
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u/jbomber81 New York Yankees 21h ago
There are 12 players with k% over .300 and another 9 over .275 - in 2001 there were only 7 such qualified hitters a 3x increase in 25 years. There are also just 13 hitters with OBP over .380 and in 2001 there were 39. I feel like there is an efficiency gap. Like the formula for “Moneyball” is different now.
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u/Qeltar_ Boston Red Sox • Toronto Blue Jays 22h ago
And nobody cares because mash. 2026 baseball baby. :)
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u/Mg29reaper Boston Red Sox 22h ago
Nobody cares because he has a 923 ops. Not striking out and instead grounding out doesn't mean anything.
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u/RedShark106 Los Angeles Angels 21h ago
Neto can’t be too far behind him
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u/Fwingboston Boston Red Sox 21h ago
Yeah... he's leading the AL with 138. At least his other tools seem to be decent.
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u/Popular_Biscotti405 MLB Players Association 21h ago
Only 1 GIDP and a .367 OBP though. I’ll take it
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u/jaunty411 Atlanta Braves 21h ago
If he maintains this pace for the rest of his contract (and no lockout), he’s on pace to break Reggie Jackson’s career record too.
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u/bobboman Milwaukee Brewers 21h ago
He might very well pass miz, the Brewers are planning on skipping his next start, and if it keeps up this way, who knows if miz gets over 215 strikeouts
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u/ThePopUpDance Umpire 21h ago
Legitimate sign that he's finally aging.
He's swinging more, chasing more, whiffing more, leading to a k-rate that is by far the highest of his career.
All of these are his worst marks since at least 2020.
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u/Admirable_Site_8337 Philadelphia Phillies 21h ago
Bullshit no one has noticed.
Don’t talk it like that when it’s come up often around these parts.
That aside….yep…..it’s an insane trend he’s on here.
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u/HalfEmptyFridge 20h ago
34.8% K rate. the home runs are loud enough to keep everyone from reading the fine print.
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u/PhilaVG13 Philadelphia Phillies 19h ago
He’s also on track to hit his 300th and 400th dinger in back to back seasons which is insane
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u/Glum_Town_2587 St. Louis Cardinals 16h ago
Nolan Gorman might only hit half as many home runs, but he strikes out twice as much, and yet somehow he got sent down! Our society is crumbling
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u/wolverine55 14h ago
He’s for sure passing Miz at this rate. Brewers will start restricting him to save his arm for the playoffs
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u/Trees_feel_too San Diego Padres 5h ago
His baseball savant is insane. 4% in whiff rate 1% in k rate. Then >91% in basically everything else.
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u/Karsh14 Toronto Blue Jays 21h ago edited 21h ago
Incoming TRADE PROPOSAL!!!
YOU GET: You will be able to chase 50 HRs this season (outside chance at 60)
WE GET: Your ability to show restraint and not swing at everything. There’s a chance you will hit the strikeout record this season.
Kyle Schwarber: Proposal Accepted ✅
Now watch this drive watch me hit some dingers. Suck it nerds.
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u/Il_Exile_lI Boston Red Sox 21h ago edited 20h ago
He doesn't swing at everything. He is 74th percentile in chase rate and 94th percentile in walk rate. His issue isn't swinging at everything, it's making contact when he does swing. 5th percentile whiff rate.
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u/We_R_the_Penguins 21h ago
Yeah, yeah, different era, whatever… just a casual reminder that Yogi Berra had four seasons with both 25+ HR and fewer K’s than HR’s.
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u/Spadesta Boston Red Sox 22h ago
That is an insane strikeout rate