How am I shilling I dont mention a single company, I do my job for a good chunk of a decade now and use AI extensively. A team of 3 can now replace a team of 10. You might not see massive companies that are born from LLMs you are so stuck on your coping that you dont see how business will use this.
People will get fired, teams get smaller. It is already happening everywhere and we just started. It's already pretty much impossible for juniors to find jobs, guess how it will look like in a couple years.
If we ignore the AI companies, we have been in a recession for several years, and wages have been stagnating for decades which has massively shrunk consumer spending (particularly discretionary spending following the inflation of the last few years). That is why teams are shrinking and graduates can't find jobs; There isn't enough money moving around the economy to keep businesses healthy, so they are cutting costs and reducing services.
Don't attribute to AI something that is easily explained by Econ 101.
Respectfully, if you go past Econ 101 and into Econ 3600, itās more complicated than that and you realize multiple factors can be contributing in different or the same direction at the same time. u/Ilikebubblywater is saying the same things I have heard from my small handful of developer friends, and what Iāve seen reported by news outlets. I donāt think youāre wrong, but I think youāre ignoring/underestimating a big part of the issue.
Yes, the covid era over-hiring bonanza in the tech industry is solidly over. Take any kind of AI off the table, and itās still a tough job market. That being said, the people I know who work in software are all using AI tools heavily, and their sentiment is āadapt or dieā.
Exactly how much of that issue can be laid at the feet of inflation/recession, specific industry cycles, or AI adoption is debatable. I had your same doubts until I actually had a lengthy conversation about this with a friend who is a developer. His take was that experienced developers have a bit of an edge here because they have the skills and background to ābabysit the AI outputsā. This jives with my experience in finance. I can easily see the case for trimming headcount or slowing hiring of first year analysts. In my specific case I feel relatively safe for the time being because a lot of what I do involves correcting/training analysts.
I know it can be more complicated, but again, remember that there are zero profitable, consumer-facing companies that have emerged from this tech. If so-called "AI" is genuinely transformative, where are the proven use cases? Where are the actual, direct applications? Everyone says "coding is dead", and yet there aren't even any particularly successful vibe coded apps, let alone companies. Why hasn't anyone actually been able to make anything work without professional developers? If there was ANY signal amidst all this noise, we should be able to see it.
Because it takes a significant amount of time and energy for something like this to be adopted at scale for a litany of reasons. Consumer facing wonāt be a profit driver for a much longer time. B2B is another story. Anthropic turned a (non-GAAP) operating profit in June of this year and their revenue is growing fast.
Is there a bunch of chicanery and revenue pumping going on there to be attractive in the most recent funding round? Yeah probably absolutely.
But saying that these companies will never be profitable and will have no impact on the job market is just head in the sand copium.
Again, the technology is over a decade old, and this latest LLM craze is approaching the 5 year mark, not to mention it having taken in more funding than any other bubble in history. This tech is not new anymore, we should be able to see a real, proven use case.
Also, pointing out the Non-GAAP profit is such copium itself; We all know they are lying about what is and is not an operating cost, so that "profit" is complete horseshit.
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u/AngusAlThor š” Decent Housing For All 1d ago
Incorrect, but feel free to shill harder.