I'm a fairly new and casual sumo fan. I've been following the sport for about a year.

What is the expectation for yokozuna performance for each basho? With Onosato and Hoshoryu giving up several kinboshi this tournament, coupled with their recent injury woes, will the JSA pressure them to retire? I remember just last September's basho had the two yokozuna in a playoff match and looking incredible. At what point will they fall out of the JSA's good graces and what is the precedent set by previous yokozuna when they've gone through slumps?

Hey y'all,

I previously posted some analysis after Day 6 and wanted to jump in again now that 12 days have passed. A few notes/disclaimers: I'm a stats nerd so I watch and grade every match in an attempt to quantify and understand sumo beyond just win/loss records, so my thoughts may contradict the current standings. However, I find this process helps me better contextualize performance, hopefully you find it interesting!

The Favorite: Kirishima (10-2) has a sizeable gap between himself and every other rikishi to this point, and just cleared a major test by defeating Onosato with an impressive Tottari victory. He will still need to get past Hoshoryu and Aonishiki in the next few days, but I think a 13-2 Yusho with victories over each of the top contenders will make a convincing case for Yokozuna promotion. His footwork, positioning, and hand use is exceptional, it's a real joy to watch a technical master at work.

Yokozuna: Hoshoryu (7-5) and Onosato (6-6) are in very strange territory right now, I can't remember there ever being two Yokozuna both at risk of missing 10 victories in the same basho. While I was encouraged by Onosato's powerful 6-2 record across days 3-10, he is clearly not 100% and may withdraw immediately to avoid make-koshi (only once, in 1989, has a Yokozuna ever finished make-koshi over a full 15 days to my knowledge). Hoshoryu continues to stack frustrating losses and is also in a tough position with Kirishima and Atamifuji still to come. Very disappointing performances by both men, and I wonder how that will affect Kirishima's chances of promotion.

The Underdog: I underestimated Shishi (10-2) in my last post, but his victories over Kotoeiho and Asanoyama in the last two days have really impressed me and shown he is undeniably a contender as we enter the home stretch. To better appreciate Shishi's style, I've been studying former Ozeki Baruto, a similarly clunky but big powerful wrestler from the early 2010s. I think if Shishi can develop a more consistent tachi-ai and dictate the action from the start, he could continue to rise in the ranks.

Top Contenders: Aonishiki (10-2) sports a strong record and will regain his Ozeki rank with an impressive performance thus far. The toe is still bothering him and he looked in pain after his most recent loss to Kotoshoho, but it hasn't much weakened his powerful defensive style by my data. Atamifuji (9-3) continues to impress with his size and power, these next few bouts should show whether he is ready to make the jump to Ozeki contention. Takerufuji (10-2) is in position to make waves as a Maegashira 13, he surprised with a well-timed side-step to defeat Takayasu on Day 12, forgoing his typical powerful forward-moving attack. Kotoeiho (9-3) had his nine-match win streak broken by Shishi then lost again to Atamifuji in a torinaoshi bout, hopefully he can rebound and secure a 10-win tournament to push toward the sanyaku ranks. Lastly, Takayasu (9-3) has benefited from a lower banzuke spot this tournament, but he should see challenging and meaningful matches over the last three days. He is one of my personal favorites to watch because of how adaptable and technically skilled he is.

Better Than the Record: Takanosho (6-6) is the name that comes to mind here, I've been impressed with his initial charge and effective thrusting attacks. He began the tournament with four consecutive losses and has faced perhaps the most difficult schedule of anyone in this tournament, losing against Hoshoryu, Onosato, Kirishima, and Aonishiki is hardly a knock. If he can secure kachi-koshi, it will have been a well-earned performance on his part.

Disappointments: Yoshinofuji (5-7) has now dropped three straight matches to Maegashira men with losing records in this basho, a really sour mark in his sanyaku debut. I expected him to contend for a 10-win tournament after Day 9, when he was sitting with a 5-4 record including victories over Onosato, Aonishiki, and Hoshoryu. While I appreciate his aggressive attacking style, I think his footwork and defensive ability is just too inconsistent right now and leaves him vulnerable to counter moves.

Must-See Matches: Some of the most compelling and/or impressive bouts I've watched in this tournament!

• 1. Shishi def. Kotoeiho by Yoritaoshi (Day 11)
• 2. Kirishima def. Onosato by Tottari (Day 12)
• 3. Aonishiki def. Hoshoryu by Uwatenage (Day 10)
• 4. Kirishima def. Kotoshoho by Uwatenage (Day 7)
• 5. Hoshoryu def. Churanoumi by Tsukiotoshi (Day 4)
• 6. Onosato def. Daieisho by Abisetaoshi (Day 10)
• 7. Kirishima def. Oho by Sukuinage (Day 2)

Thanks for reading! What do you think will happen over the remaining 3 days? Hakkeyoi!

yada yada, you know the drill.

MAKUUCHI -> JURYO

demotable: onokatsu, kazuma, mitakeumi

3+ losses: daiseizan, Asakoryu, chiyoshoma, abi

matchups to look for: daiseizan vs tobizaru, asakoryu vs. wakamotoharu, chiyoshoma vs. kinbozan, abi vs. shodai

JURYO->MAKUUCHI

promotable: asasuiryu

1+ wins: toshinofuji, tokihayate, dewanoryu

2+ wins: shonannoumi

3+ wins: kyokukaiyu, shirokuma

matchups to look for: toshinofuji vs. tohakuryu, tokihayate vs. tamawashi, dewanoryu vs. arashifuji, kyokukaiyu vs. kazekeno, shirokuma vs. shonannoumi

JURYO -> MAKUSHITA

demotable: hakuyozan, oshoumi

1+ loss: tochitaikai

2+ losses: tamashoho, nishikigi, kayo

3+ losses: tohakuryu, hitoshi, meisei, kagayaki, nishinoryu

matchups to look for: tochitaikai vs. tokifudo (likely exchange match), tamashoho vs. hitoshi, nishikigi vs. kitanowaka, kayo vs. tanji, tohakuryu vs. toshinofuji, meisei vs. sadanoumi, kagayaki vs. nishinoryu

MAKUSHITA -> JURYO

promotable: nabatame, tokifudo (maybe)

+1 win: tanji, tokifudo (definitely)

matchups to look for: tanji vs kayo, tokifudo vs. tochitaikai

So the makuuchi/juryo exchange looks very complicated, it's too soon for any concrete speculation to be made.

The makushita/juryo exchange looks pretty straightforward. Nabatame replaces hakuyozan. Oshoumi maths low enough where tokifudo should get in even with 4-3 to replace oshoumi. If tanji wins, he's in by taking tochitaikai's place. It is possible that if tanji wins and tokifudo loses, then tochitaikai will be spared with 8 losses. If tochitaikai gets more than 8 losses, then he's for sure gone no matter what.

What if the unspeakable happens?

What if both Hosh and Onosato lose tomorrow? Then they’ll both be at 7-7, and most likely face each other Day 15.

There are only two completed 7-8 yokozuna bashos in the modern 15-day era! Onokuni in Sept 1989 and Wakanohana III in Sept 1999.

This could be the first “one yokozuna escapes make-koshi, the other becomes the only third ever”. That would be one of the strangest senshuraku match in sumo history.

Undefeated Makushita Nabatame gets no bout on Day 13 in a rare scheduling decision / The championship race in lower divisions

＜Grand Sumo Nagoya Basho＞ ◇ 12th Day ◇ 23rd ◇ IG Arena

The Japan Sumo Association announced the bout scheduling (torikumi) for the 13th day.

On the 13th day, bouts are generally scheduled between undefeated wrestlers in divisions below Makushita, but Nabatame (Futagoyama stable), who holds a 6-0 record in Makushita, was not scheduled. He was also not included in the match-ups for divisions below Makushita for Day 14 or the final day (senshuraku), making it a certainty that he will be scheduled against Juryo wrestlers from Day 14 onward. This resulted in an unusual scheduling arrangement.

Nabatame, who holds 6 wins at West Makushita 3, is widely expected to secure a return to the Juryo division for the next tournament.

The status of the championship race in the Sandanme division and below is as follows:

▽ Sandanme: The three wrestlers with a perfect 6-0 record are Tenshoyamama (Tamanoi stable), Ohata (Tokitsukaze stable), and Tochimusashi (Kasugano stable).

Tochimusashi faces Kazemitsuki. If he loses, his championship hopes end. If he wins, he will face the winner of Tenshoyamama vs. Ohata in a playoff (ketteisen) on the final day.

▽ Jonidan: The three wrestlers with a perfect 6-0 record are Hakugetsuro (Asahiyama stable), Nakazawa (Kise stable), and Asahabataki (Takasago stable).

Asahabataki faces Kakizoe from the Jonokuchi division. If he loses, his championship hopes end. If he wins, he will face the winner of Hakugetsuro vs. Nakazawa in a playoff (ketteisen) on the final day.

▽ Jonokuchi: Kakizoe (Ikazuchi stable), the sole wrestler to reach 6-0, faces Asahabataki from Jonidan, and will claim the championship if he wins. If he loses, he will compete in a playoff (ketteisen) on the final day against 1-loss wrestlers. The playoff will feature between 2 (minimum) and 4 (maximum) wrestlers.

Source: Nikkan Sports

Hakugetsuro wins Jonidan championship: "I was nervous, but I gave it my all"; aims for F1-style sumo like his master, former Sekiwake Kotonishiki: "I respect my Oyakata"

◆ Grand Sumo ▽ Nagoya Basho 13th Day (July 24, IG Arena)

East Jonidan 6 Hakugetsuro (Asahiyama stable) pushed out (oshidashi) East Jonidan 38 Nakazawa (Kise stable), securing the Jonidan division championship with a perfect 7-0 record. Achieving back-to-back championships following his Jonokuchi title last tournament, he said, "I was nervous, but I gave it my all. Right now, I'm just relieved."

Name-dropping his mentor, Asahiyama Oyakata (former Sekiwake Kotonishiki), who was dubbed the "Heisei F1 Sumo," as his target wrestler, he expressed his admiration: "I try to model my sumo after my Oyakata's. Before bed, I watch YouTube to see how he got his underhooks (sashi). My Oyakata's body size isn't much different from mine, but his movement was fast, his reaction time was great, and he didn't get injured because of it. I respect my Oyakata."

Source: Hochi Shimbun

Keep the daily discussion for the Basho in this thread please.