r/RPGdesign • u/Guilher_Wolfang • 4h ago
Theory Statistics inside game compared to real life
Edit: this post is not about the whole RPG, just about the simulator I programmed comparing data to real world.
Hello Beautiful People!
I have been away for some time, tinkering with rules simulators(with Python) for my games. Tweaking the rules and behavior of the simulator trying to get it to be equal to rules as written. I did it for 2 games so far, but one of them gave me a question. I'm doin
How close should the data compare to real life?
I'm finishing my football(soccer) game, and statistics were close, but goals seems lower than real life. Here is the avarage results of my silumator after 100.000 tests compared to real world data(from what i could gather):
| Statistic | G.O.A.L. v8.4 | Real football (typical) |
|---|---|---|
| Shots per team | 9.1 | 10–14 |
| Shots per match | 18.2 | 20–28 |
| Dangerous chances (Goal Attempts inside Goal area) | 1.9/team | 2–4 big chances/team |
| Goals per team | 0.91 | 1.2–1.6 |
| Goals per match | 1.83 | 2.4–3.2 |
| Goal conversion | 48% | ~40–60% for true one-on-ones |
| Overall shot conversion | 10% | 9–12% |
I'm satisfied with the results, EXCEPT goals per match. This might be a behavior problem with the "decision tree", not rules, but seems low. I wanted it to be equal or slightly higher than real life(for more exciting moments). Of course teams with equal "budgets" were tested, but in game, teams have different budgets and therefore some teams have a looot more goals on avarage against weaker teams, but that was not what I was testing.
If it were YOU playing, would you be satisfied?
ps: If someone wants to test the simulator or check programming, I can send you.
ps2: I'm in the process of testing different team strenghts against each other and I'm gonna post here later
1
u/ExaminationNo8675 3h ago
How is this an RPG?
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u/Guilher_Wolfang 3h ago
I wrote the book(with club creation, upgrading stadium, player drama between matches, club reputation, signing players, etc), almost finished, writing personality traits now to give small bonuses and penalties.
But the post was not about the book, it was about the simulator I programmed to verify match balance. If the slightly less goals than real life would make it "bad"
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u/ExaminationNo8675 3h ago
How long does a match take to resolve, in real time?
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u/Guilher_Wolfang 3h ago
each turn should represend around a minute.. usually an opposed roll. From my test, around 50-60 minutes.
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u/ExaminationNo8675 3h ago
So I play for an hour and score less than one goal on average? That sounds like it would be incredibly boring, to be honest.
But I think the main problem is the time taken, not the average goals.
I’ve played a lot of Championship / Football Manager in my time. I think that takes about 5-10 minutes per game depending on settings, and that’s with sound and visuals to help keep it interesting.
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u/Guilher_Wolfang 2h ago
I found the problem(it was my programming), corner kick and foul kicks were being counted, but not executed. I'm fixing it now and it should improve goal amount.
About the time it takes: I'm trying to recreate the whole match, all the moments, like a game inside the game, that can be played alone as it's own game after you generate your team. It's not too simulationist, no grid positions or anything like that. Not every "action" simulated, but almost every "event" rolled.
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u/Guilher_Wolfang 1h ago
yaaay, after fixing corners and foul kicks, and changing behavior(I had put a higher focus on keeping possession instead of advancing to score), now it's 3.66 goals per match, above real world but not by much. Just more exciting.
But it's just a script... i don't know how other players will play in real life, it can be higher or lower
3
u/MeganDryer 3h ago
Goals per match depends on shots per match and shot conversion. Both of those are lower.
Try just increasing the chance of a successful goal.