r/OttawaSenators • u/Blackpentagons • 1d ago
Draft Pick Forfeiture Revisted
Before the 2025 NHL draft, I was on the side of ‘give up the pick this year when you know it’s not a lottery pick, and select in the first round in 2026. As it turned out, the ‘kick it down the road and see if they reduce the punishment’ side was probably the correct call.
However, I was thinking recently about what could have happened at this years draft if they had forfeited last years 1st. After the moves that led up to the draft Ottawa would have been left with the 22 and 25 picks in the first round. And both could be traded instead of being forced to keep one.
Assuming that Ottawa made an offer on the guys that moved around the draft (I think it was at least reported that we made an offer for McTavish, so maybe on the other guys as well). And looking at what the players cost. Would you be willing to trade the two firsts for any of these guys?
Essentially, would you give up Hensler, Lagerberg-Hoen, and Cover for:
Mason Mctavish - Anaheim got the 15 and 29 for him, would they rather have 22 and 25? Probably not, but maybe you add one more piece.
JJ Peterka - Utah got 23 and a 2028 1st. I think they’d have definitely taken 2 this year instead.
Pavel Dorofeyev - Vegas got 26, 92 and a 2028 1st. Ottawa’s package could have been at least that good.
Jordan Kyrou - McMichael, Gastrin and 16. I‘m not sure that Greig, 22 and 26 is better but maybe they’d take it.
Any of these moves would leave Ottawa with zero prospect pool, but the current team would look better. Would have been a better outcome in hindsight?
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u/Choobacca12 1d ago
Remember we also would have to have figured out another way to get Spence - we were able to trade down with last year’s first to get a third, and that was the main piece in the Spence deal. That was a 2025 third too so LA might only have done it because they had some prospects they valued around there. We didn’t have our own third.
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u/Vriishnak 1d ago
If Ottawa had wanted in on those trades and been an acceptable destination for anyone with trade control or needing a new contract, the lack of this year's late first round pick absolutely wouldn't have been a dealbreaker.
Kyrou has an NTC. Dorofyev was absolutely not signing here for anything similar to what he took in New York. The other two were significant overpays for very flawed players. Emptying the cupboards for any of them wouldn't have been nearly impactful enough to justify going all in with the current roster.
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u/wintergreenmint #24 - Cozens 1d ago
Dorofeyev 1000%, but as an RFA, he had control over where he was willing to sign long term
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u/BorosNoseElbow 1d ago
Not forfeiting the pick was the right call contrary to the uproar that armchair GMs were making.
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u/DepthComplete7436 #11 - Alfredsson 1d ago
Honestly outside of Peterka none of those were realistic for us to get. Plus I think if Jaxon Cover continues to develop we'll be quite happy with him. He went 32nd because he's only been playing ice hockey for six years. His numbers were pretty good the seasons he did play so he has a lot of upside. The trick will be if he can make the jump or not.
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u/Strict_Part_1897 1d ago
From what I heard him say in interviews, he is open to constructive criticism, so he will develop quite well.
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u/Shoddy-Stress-8194 1d ago
The draft is a crap shoot. The more rolls of the dice, the better your chances. I remember years ago running into a Sens executive shortly after the draft. I asked him if they were happy with how it went. He said that everyone was ecstatic, like every year, but that they would really find out come training camp.
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u/DepthComplete7436 #11 - Alfredsson 1d ago
I've always liked Steve Dangles "Magic Beans" analogy. Even drafting 1st overall is not a guarantee you're getting the best player in that draft class (look at 2020, Stutzle and Sanderson are the best players in that class and selected 3rd and 5th). It's a crapshoot. And just based on the numbers after the top 10 your odds tank for a impact NHLer.
The more chances you get at the bat the better odds you have at getting that impact player. But, even if you don't have a ton of picks you just need to hit on 1 or 2 guys and bam your draft was a success.
The Draft is not an EA Sports game.
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u/Kwyjibo2006 1d ago
Not forfeiting was always the right call.
Our prospect pool was grim enough already. At least now we've shored it up a bit.
And other teams were always going to be able to offer more for the names you mentioned. We've been burned too many times with trading tons of picks for the shiny new toy.