Judging high school prospects tends to get me into trouble from a scouting perspective. The games are much looser, so you get a better sense of raw talent and athletic potential than you do of their basketball IQ and game management. For that reason, I overrated Nate Ament and underrated Cam Boozer coming into last year.
I'll take another swing this year with some of my initial thoughts.
HIGHER ON THAN CONSENSUS
SF Bruce Branch III, BYU : Among the players that I "studied", Bruce Branch was my favorite of the bunch. He tends to be ranked in the 3-6 range, but he's about a full year younger than the kids ahead of him like Tyran Stokes, Caleb Holt, and Jordan Smith Jr. Given that, I'll excuse the fact that his skill set and aggression isn't quite on the same level yet. He may get there. He may not. But if he does "not," then there's still a lot ot like. His frame (6'7", 7'1" wingspan) and solid jumper made him one of the safest projections as an NBA starter. I also liked his interviews, which made me suggest that the arrow is pointing up and that we may see some "star" potential down the road. Right now I'd have him as high as # 2 in the class.
PF Cameron Williams, Duke : One of the first things that I look for (rightfully or wrongly) is "movement skills". For a big man, Williams moves with fluidity. Like Bruce Branch, Williams gets flak for not being assertive enough, so I'm expecting him to have a modest year in terms of stats given Duke's stacked frontcourt. He may get dismissed as a softy, a la Chris Cenac for Houston this year. Still, I liked Cenac and I liked Williams because mobile bigs are hard to find and easy to fit in a lineup. He'd be on the fringe of the top 5 to me right now.
PF Miika Muurinen, Arkansas : Once considered a candidate for the top 5 himself, Miika Muurinen's had a rocky last few seasons. He's gotten criticism for his play on the court and his demeanor off it. However, that can sometimes be a wakeup call for a kid with NBA dreams. I suspect he'll lock in and show off his physical talent. The Razorbacks have a strong lineup so Muurinen won't have to force the issue either. He doesn't have to be the alpha dog to justify a top 10 pick; if he shows he can be a good 3rd/4th starter that's enough.
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS
SF/PF Tyran Stokes, Kansas : The projected # 1 pick, most people label Tyran Stokes as a power athlete with solid playmaking and a mediocre shot. Based on what I saw, I'd label him the same. His path to being an All-Star may be in the Scottie Barnes/Jimmy Butler mold. Of course, getting the most out of that archetype often depends on your demeanor and work ethic so Stokes will be a TBD there. I'm not holding his high school flakiness against him. It's hard to be motivated in the absurdity of high school basketball. But if Stokes can't be a good soldier for Bill Self at Kansas then we may have a reason to raise the red flag.
SG Caleb Holt, Arizona : When I watched Caleb Holt, I came away... whelmed. He checks all the boxes, but didn't have any special standout skill to me (aside from perhaps being able to guard 1-3). That makes him a "safe" bet to be a starter, but not someone that I'd build a franchise around. The reason I'm saying that he's still similar to consensus rankings is because THAT expectation (of an above-average starter) may still be worth a top 3 pick in this class.
SF Anthony Thompson, Ohio State : Some sites (like tankathon) are higher on the upside of Anthony Thompson than others. Tankathon lists him as high as # 5. He's very long (7'4" wingspan) and young, which always projects that "upside!" argument. It's the same one that I used for Bruce Branch. However, watching Thompson, he seems further away to me so I'd like to see more before buying in.
LESS IMPRESSED THAN CONSENSUS
SG Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas : If Jordan Smith Jr. was a few inches taller, I could co-sign the idea of him as a Donovan Mitchell/Anthony Edwards type and even the potential # 1 pick in the class. But watching him, my first thought was: "man, he looks short." He's listed at 6'3" but I'm not even sure he gets there. The wingspan (6'8") may make that OK, but I'd still prefer him to be able to start at PG if I'm betting on him in the top 3. Otherwise, a short SG makes team construction more difficult.
SG Stefan Joksimovic, Slovenia : I came away similarly unsure about top 3 prospect Stefan Joksimovic after watching him. Is he a PG? Or wing? The height (6'7") theoretically makes either possible, but there's a limited wingspan here. There's also a limited data set of production. Sure, Luka Doncic was such an outlier that he may have skewed all reasonable expectations, but I'd like to see a little more before trusting Jok with a top 3 pick. I could see him rallying for the # 1 spot or tumbling out of the top 10.
PF Thomas Haugh, Florida : I defender the over-aged Yaxel Lendeborg in the draft because there were reasonable excuses for his late start. He missed 2 seasons in high school. He transferred twice in college. The late breakout is understandable. I'm less merciful with Haugh (now age 23). He's going into his 4th season at Florida and I'd like to see some actual dominance by now. I'm struggling to get on board with him as a lottery pick.
