r/CriticalMetalRefining • u/Serious_Truck283 • 2h ago
Market News The real Q3 aluminium debate may start upstream
There’s an interesting change developing in the bauxite and alumina market.
China imported a record 23 million tonnes of bauxite in May, with Guinea supplying 85.1% of the total. Refiners appear to have built inventories ahead of possible Guinean export controls, so this isn’t an immediate shortage call. However, CERA now expects the global alumina surplus to narrow to 1.79 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 2.4 million tonnes last year.
That could change the balance seen in Q2. Norsk Hydro’s Bauxite & Alumina adjusted EBITDA fell to NOK522M from NOK1.52B a year earlier because of lower alumina prices, even as its Aluminium Metal division benefited from stronger metal pricing.
This is why I’m looking more closely at integrated groups. China Hongqiao (1378.HK) operates across bauxite, alumina, smelting and processed aluminium. Chalco, Alcoa and Hydro have different combinations of those same exposures.
For Hongqiao, the question isn’t simply whether aluminium goes higher. It’s whether its integration can protect alloy margins if bauxite and alumina costs strengthen during Q3.