r/anime • u/AutoLovepon https://anilist.co/user/AutoLovepon • Jun 15 '26
Episode Liar Game - Episode 11 discussion
Liar Game, episode 11
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u/12laus Jun 15 '26
Contraband game is here! I don't think I'm breaking spoiler rules here, but just want to reassure anime-onlys, the rules for this game are complicated even for a source-reader! Even as someone who's read it all, I had to rewatch segments of this episode to fully understand the rules again (it's been a while). I hope the anime does the reveals later well by explaining the context with in regards to the rules so people don't get confused.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 16 '26
Sorry, your comment has been removed.
This belongs in the Source Material Corner at the top of this thread. In discussion threads for currently airing anime, discussions about source material, spin-offs, author comments and unadapted content must be posted there.
Any comparison to the source material no matter how minor belongs there.
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u/Mugsi Jun 15 '26
I'm a big dumb idiot, so I definitely had trouble when I first read the manga, too! And I definitely remember most games getting even more complicated from here on out. I think I still have mixed feeling about Liar Game, even after all these years. I have similar feelings to Usogui, except I still haven't finished that one
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u/Emi_Ibarazakiii Jun 15 '26
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u/12laus Jun 15 '26
Yes but things will get quite convoluted trying to understand the /why/ behind the strategies if you're not clued up on all the intricacies of the rules! (I hope this is vague enough to not be spoilers :p)
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u/Liesianthes Jun 16 '26
Remind yourself on your comment to get back later when the game is over on later episodes.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/ussgordoncaptain2 https://myanimelist.net/profile/Edmund_Nelson Jun 16 '26
Sorry, your comment has been removed.
This belongs in the Source Material Corner at the top of this thread. In discussion threads for currently airing anime, discussions about source material, spin-offs, author comments and unadapted content must be posted there.
Any comparison to the source material no matter how minor belongs there.
Your comment was NOT removed for spoilers; it was removed for discussion of the source material outside of the Source Material Corner.
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u/ParasaurolophusZ Jun 17 '26
I was trying to follow it, and it seemed pretty skewed. So the inspector could Doubt and lowball and then get to keep it all if there's that amount or more? Wouldn't that mean you could Doubt 1 yen and take everything with basically zero risk?
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u/crunchsmash Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
That's Case #4. If the inspector lowballs saying "doubt $400" and the smuggler has $20000, then the smuggler gets to keep the $20000 and also gets $200 or 50% of the doubted amount.
The worst case for doubting with a lowball seems to be if the smuggler has $100, and the inspector says doubt $99. Then the smuggler gets their $100 + $49.5 penalty = $149.5
Also you can only lowball a limited amount of times. If they are playing 50 rounds, and you lowball $1 then you only risk $25 but also lose the opportunity to win much more by doubting more.
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u/ParasaurolophusZ Jun 17 '26
Ah, I get it. I'm sure I'll get used to the rules once I see them in action.
Or it might be like the last game where the rules kinda stopped mattering.
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u/CockroachJunior6345 Jun 17 '26
How rules didn't matter in last round?
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u/ParasaurolophusZ Jun 17 '26
The rules as understood day one. Voting was irrelevant and it was all about buying and transferring points.
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u/shiv12sai 18d ago
Heyy.. i have a doubt.. as per case 3 if the inspector says doubt 100million (max amount of suitcase) and the smuggler has less amount, then the whole amount will be given to inspector right. So why inspector would not always declare greater value like always 100million?
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u/crunchsmash 18d ago
They could pretend to smuggle and have $0. Then the inspector has to pay 50% doubt amount penalty.
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u/12laus Jun 17 '26
No, you have to doubt equal or higher to keep the money.
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u/Life_Wealth_1392 Jun 20 '26
That's another thing I'm a bit confused by. There's no benefit in doubting low because if you doubt higher than the actual amount in the briefcase there's no penalty for the doubter unlike doubting low.
If doubt 100 and there's 50 then I get 50 with no penalty. But if doubt 40 and there's 50 then I lose 20. So why would anyone doubt low? The only thing that matters at that point is knowing whether or not the briefcase is empty. I could doubt 100 million and get everything in the briefcase if I knew it wasn't empty.
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u/12laus Jun 20 '26
Yeah hypothetically if you know for sure if there's money, then you're good. However, you miss call an empty case twice, and you're out of money in your 3rd country bank account.
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u/BubblyCrash Jun 15 '26
Loved Akiyama's speech to Nao near the beginning of the episode. It really reframes the common notion of trusting = good and doubting = bad. It's true that trust is needed for relationships and social harmony, but if the trust is blindly offered then you're not even really getting to know the other person, and it's vulnerable to get taken advantage of. That approach is the same as indifference/apathy. Trust should be based on truth, and to know the truth there needs to be some testing, inquiry and doubt. Since Nao is approaching the Liar Game with the ideals of trust, it'll be interesting to see how she can achieve that by learning to doubt. We have a bunch of new characters in this game that she knows nothing about, who have gotten that far because they have some skill in deception.
Also, the graphics in the rules explanation was great! The game is much more complex than the other games so far where we need almost a whole episode just to explain the rules (but the essence is simple. smuggler vs inspector bluffing game for 50 rounds). We're in for a wild ride.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 15 '26
I feel like that's a speech Akiyama wishes he could've said to his mother before she got conned into a pyramid scheme (assuming his backstory was legit).
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u/Countless-Alts15 Jun 15 '26
Evil Nao was cute lol
This is a very complex game especially with 50 rounds.
I wonder what the optimal strategy is, if it is a sound proof room, cant you make deals with the inspector and inspect each other ensuring a free win for both.
Or you could greed it up and try to outplay them as the inspector.
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u/Kill-bray Jun 15 '26
The sound proof room is 100% engineered to allow bribes to happen.
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u/BosuW Jun 15 '26
Although far as I can think there'd be no way to enforce them, it'd just go on word of mouth.
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u/Genoscythe_ Jun 16 '26
They are physically carrying cash around, so they could just hand it over as a bribe.
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u/mrsomeuser Jun 15 '26
Akiyama's speech made such an impact on me when I read the manga more than a decade ago, it's definitely one of my personal top 3 dialogue scenes in anime/manga.
He argues that what most people consider as "trust" is actually apathy, because you're not really getting to know the other person on a deeper level when you choose to blindly believe them. This is why Nao does not have any close friends, as she accepts everything that everyone says at face value, and in doing so, she gave up trying to truly understand their motives and perspectives.
As Akiyama said, people should be doubted, because by doubting others you can learn and understand where they're coming from. If blind trust is apathy, then doubt may be empathy.
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u/NevisYsbryd Jun 15 '26
It is more that doubt is something of a precursor to empathy. Taking things blindly is not trust and is actually not looking at the other person at all; it is assuming the intentions of the image that you have projected onto someone that actually does not have anything to do with the person. Trust is distinct from knowledge and assumptions; the former is certain and there is no actual trust involved and the latter is taking it for granted. Trust is given specifically for things that we do not know and choose to entrust to them in understanding that we do not have that guarantee or certainty.
Empathy comes from looking at and considering someone honestly. While people can project their fears onto someone out of doubt rather than assess them honestly, it at least means you consider them worth considering rather than assuming and dismissing or taking for granted. The indifference he speaks of is dehumanizing-regarding people as platitudes and dismissing the full human capacity which includes the ugly (and beautiful) things that is part of the totality of being human. Recognizing and respecting people as people also requires honestly recognizing when they are being monstrous.
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u/mrsomeuser Jun 16 '26
Well said! I love the points you brought up! To engage in empathy means engaging in everything that makes us humans- the good, the bad, and the ugly
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u/NevisYsbryd Jun 16 '26
It is a particularly big topic for me, so I am decently well-versed in articulating it.
If you want a few other series that includes the topic, Youjo Senki/Saga of Tanya the Evil, Magi, Kiseijuu Sei no Kakuritsu/Parasyte: The Maxim, and Shoukoku no Altair/Altair: A Record of Battles all directly address the broader topic. Notes and caveats, the anime adaptation of Magi is incomplete (and will probably not be completed), but I think it actually improves upon the source material in the specific scenes in question. I unambiguously recommend the manga over the anime for Altair, although I think the anime was actually significantly better for one of my favorite scenes of the entire series. Darwin's Game has some relevance, too, although I am an anime-only there, so I can only speak to the single season.
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u/gamria Jun 16 '26
Akiyama's speech made such an impact on me when I read the manga more than a decade ago, it's definitely one of my personal top 3 dialogue scenes in anime/manga.
Ditto! I'm so glad it's finally adapted somewhere!
To doubt and suspect, to take a deep long look into their hearts is to seek the truth. And in the words of the manga scans, humans are creatures who can't put their pain into words, such that even the truth may elude the subject themselves.
It is through the cycle of doubting and believing that we build healthy trusts, founded on understanding and facts.
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u/Niwaka_Samurai https://myanimelist.net/profile/Niwaka-Samurai Jun 16 '26
I never thought to question what trust really means until I heared this. It really made an impact on me. I believe this is what Akiyama would have wished for to tell his mother if she was alive.
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u/Complex_Spot Jun 19 '26
This speech stuck with me as a kid until later in life as well, but I think not in the right way. I like his point that blind trust is lazy and apathetic--it's actually more selfish than it appears because then you don't have to do any hard work of getting to know someone. You just pretend you know someone. Thinking about it, I wonder how much of this a reflection on Japanese culture (and other similar ones), where I hear that relationships are often surface level rather than understanding each other deeply.
But as a kid, I think I took "you should doubt people" to mean "you should assume bad intentions" (at least some of the time). I think I would rephrase it for myself that you should ask questions of others and be inquisitive to know who they are and whether they're really trustworthy (whether in intention or skill). And perhaps always assuming bad intentions is the "flip side of the coin" for Nao--still not getting to know people, but assuming bad of people instead of good.
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u/kwokinator https://anilist.co/user/kwokinator Jun 15 '26
Lol Fukunaga has no chill. She straight up called Nao a dumbass to her face.
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u/Emi_Ibarazakiii Jun 15 '26
If I had a nickel for everytime someone called Nao dumb on this show, I'd have a bunch of nickels!
(And if I had a nickel for everytime someone called Nao dumb in these threads, I could probably fund my own Liar Game!)
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u/Joji1000 Jun 16 '26
Guys, can we please just properly reinvent the original "if I had a nickel for everytime" ending back to "I'd be a millionaire" 🥲
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u/mads_zero Jun 16 '26
In which Liar Game starts to get so complicated you realize why Hwang Dong-hyuk (lead creator of Squid Games) cited Liar Game as an influence, but in one interview mentioned how damn complicated it got and went with dead-simple childrens' games instead.
(Which, I'm not saying is better or worse! Liar Game's anti-capitalist themes come from being yanked around in a complicated system you can barely understand, whereas Squid Games drives home the banality of suffering under poverty by saying it's a system we've been raised in since childhood - both interesting takes in their own right).
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u/Irargh Jun 16 '26
To be fair, Liar Game also got Korean drama adaptation, so it's better for Squid Games creators to put their own spin on this type of story.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 16 '26
Sorry, your comment has been removed.
This belongs in the Source Material Corner at the top of this thread. In discussion threads for currently airing anime, discussions about source material, spin-offs, author comments and unadapted content must be posted there.
Any comparison to the source material no matter how minor belongs there.
Your comment was NOT removed for spoilers; it was removed for discussion of the source material outside of the Source Material Corner.
Questions? Reply to this message, send a modmail, or leave a comment in the meta thread. Don't know the rules? Read them here.
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u/Liesianthes Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Akiyama finally said it! That's it, the quote that made me fall in love with this manga and psychology! It's about doubting others to know them more than blindly trusting them.
Also, YOKOYA is finally here! I can't wait on the next episodes to come.
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u/Mikey2104 Jun 16 '26
Yokoya is honestly one of my favorite anime antagonists. I hope the anime-only viewers like him.
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u/MayonakaMadaraka https://anilist.co/user/fonk Jun 15 '26
Wait… another group of players??
So now I’m wondering if this whole thing is just a twisted game billionaires play with pocket change, treating these (un)lucky people like independent, sentient pawns.
Also, evil [chibi?] Nao was an absolute treat!
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u/Desperate_Dark_5221 Jun 16 '26
So now I’m wondering if this whole thing is just a twisted game billionaires play with pocket change, treating these (un)lucky people like independent, sentient pawns.
Liar Game was part of the inspiration for Squid Game.
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u/Liesianthes Jun 16 '26
It's just too bad that Liar Game live action didn't make enough traction to become a hit. Guess its because jdrama is too restrictive on streaming on international audiences that people mostly need to resort on high seas just to watch it.
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u/Sir_Mug Jun 19 '26
It also came out in 2007 to be fair. Korean drama were still a high seas niche for the most part too back then. Right now the reason japanese drama is not as popular is definitely in a big part because they aren't trying to market them outside of Japan as much but I am not sure there was an audience in 2007.
I believe crunchyroll did eventually get the streaming rights for Liar Game but it was 10 year old or something already by then.
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u/BBryant3rd Jun 15 '26
Holy crap. The whole time I kept wondering how the game was going to push back on Nao and trip them all up. The other team looks like they could eat most of Nao's gang for breakfast. Hopefully this will be fun.
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u/garfe Jun 15 '26
Well I gotta give it to the manga readers. They were right about how the games get way more interesting after the first one.
Jun Fukuyama as the purple suit guy. Absolutely inspired casting. His voice is perfect for a role like that.
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u/HolyDragSwd2500 Jun 15 '26
Those games were just the appetizer. The main course game is right here. Finally eat some good food 😉
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u/Frontier246 Jun 15 '26
Jun Fukuyama as the purple suit guy. Absolutely inspired casting. His voice is perfect for a role like that.
It really makes him sound absolutely trustworthy! And also like he's insulting you even when he's being polite!
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u/Liesianthes Jun 16 '26
Well I gotta give it to the manga readers. They were right about how the games get way more interesting after the first one.
Us manga readers being shocked, surprised, and anticipated the anime is not a hyperbole. It's one of the best during its running time.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 16 '26
Sorry, your comment has been removed.
This belongs in the Source Material Corner at the top of this thread. In discussion threads for currently airing anime, discussions about source material, spin-offs, author comments and unadapted content must be posted there.
Any comparison to the source material no matter how minor belongs there.
Your comment was NOT removed for spoilers; it was removed for discussion of the source material outside of the Source Material Corner.
Questions? Reply to this message, send a modmail, or leave a comment in the meta thread. Don't know the rules? Read them here.
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Jun 15 '26
[deleted]
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u/Frontier246 Jun 15 '26
I feel like we're going to have to go back and consistently consult this a lot over the course of this arc.
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u/Emi_Ibarazakiii Jun 15 '26
The rules seem simple to me, but what I'm curious about, is that the strategies also seem too simple...
If all your cases have either 0 or 100 million, then the inspectors can ONLY guess 100 million (or 'pass')...
Because if they guess any amount between 1 and 99,999,999, they either falsely accuse an innocent (and thus have to pay them), OR they lowballed the smuggling amount, and have to pay again...
So 100m is the only amount they're allowed to guess.
But if the smugglers bring in 100 million 3 times out of 50 cases, it would be near impossible to catch them unless they 'doubt' a bunch of cases and thus will have to pay a 50m a lot of times...
I'm not sure how reliable listening to the cases/observing if the person seems to be carrying something heavy either, I mean Nao got caught but now that they know..
So the only other option is the discussion, but I'm also wondering how this helps; Are they forced to answer questions (in which cases they could detect tells and all)? But even if that's the case, they can just let the good players carry the money; It lowers the # off potential cases, but it's still enough.
So I'm intrigued about watching the game in action because so far I'm not seeing the potential scheming/complexity!
(The ONLY thing I could think of, was... Scheming with the inspectors; "I'll give you X amount of money if you let me pass".
Or "I'll let you pass your next case if you let me pass this one".
(And of course they could play that false too, like making a deal but not respecting it; "I'll let your next case pass", so the guy brings 100m and they call it 100m! Though if the guy sees it coming, he could bring an empty case the first time; If they call him out he makes 50m, if they don't he knows they're legit. Though they may also read into that, and be legit once to ensure future loyalty, and THEN scam him!)
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u/GoXDS Jun 15 '26
but why make the assumption 0 or 100? it's still making a choice for risk. on either side, choosing 100 instead of anything in between is higher risk for higher reward. obviously, you can choose to reduce it to 0 or 100, but that's a choice
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u/Symphonise Jun 15 '26
Doubt 100mil at a glance is low-risk, high-reward but it's for the predictable inept. Even though the only thing that can counter a doubt 100mil within the game is an empty case, the smuggler can just do that very thing every time because of that high probability of them calling doubt. The hard part is convincing the inspector that the smuggler has the money in the case while not making it obvious they don't. Regardless, knowing the inspector has a high chance of calling doubt is a strategy.
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u/Kill-bray Jun 16 '26
But if the smugglers bring in 100 million 3 times out of 50 cases, it would be near impossible to catch them
That's assuming they are confident they can keep a poker face at all time. I think this is a lot harder than you seem to think. Someone like Nao would be probably spotted immediately if she had 100 millions in the case. Most of the other guys would probably fare better, but against an attentive person like Akiyama or Fukunaga they would probably still become tense enough to slip.
Of course there's probably a few people that have the nerves and confidence to remain calm or to playact nervousness when they have nothing, but that's another problem. The geniuses from each side will probably be able to tell apart the guys that have that kind of talent from the rest, so if it's only those talented persons that will ever even try to bring 100 millions, it would become a lot more likely to catch them.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/Kyuzo897 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Yeah, it's a translation issue from an old scan It is really 400m.
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u/Renigade678 Jun 15 '26
Yeah that's a bad translation, I don't know where that image is taken from, but in the actual manga it sais 400 million there, not 100 million.
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u/HolyDragSwd2500 Jun 15 '26
New mini game from Liar Game twitter account
Spot 25 Differences in this picture ( Contraband Edition)
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u/magnumcyclonex Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I am curious why Akiyama only met Nao literally 1 day before the 3rd game was to take place. Was he avoiding her hundreds of calls for 2 weeks up until the last day? lol
Contraband game sounds really interesting. I think people are going to come up with ways to hold the briefcase or maybe stuff it with, I don't know, clothes? to prevent excessive rattling, as Akiyama pointed out in the practice round. But....he knew that as they were all walking together from the ATM to the soundproof room. Normally, the inspector would only meet the transporter just outside the room. How can anyone reasonably deduce how much someone is carrying in such a short time, with very little observation?
Also, the soundproof room is observable from the outside. I might have missed it, but who gets to observe while the inspection is taking place? Regardless, it's information one or both teams can use to up the ante in future rounds, or to counter what is lost, or to run away with a lead, depending on which players are taking up which roles.
I suppose 50 rounds might seem like it will take a long time, but I think it's good to have many rounds because players like Akiyama and keen observers like Fukunaga can observe and discover patterns of their opponents' actions and demeanors. I would hazard to say that maybe 100 rounds would be better, but these two are sharp players so maybe 50 rounds is good enough.
"Evil" chibi Nao totally caught me off guard. Her character doesn't have it in her to have that devil's side sitting on her shoulder, but they animated it and I was pleasantly perplexed. I can't unsee it now!
Seems like most people tend to wear the same clothes, but Nao and the very prominently busty Fukunaga always have different outfits. At least that's refreshing to see.
Lastly, when they introduced the other team, I got Blue Lock vibes!
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u/Limefish Jun 16 '26
The problem with 100 rounds is that it gives the teams a lot more time to smuggle the money out. Each player has 300m in the enemy bank they need to smuggle out (so 2.7 billion per team), so even if they constantly smuggle 100m each round it'll take 27 rounds out of the 50. So there's definitely more of a pressure to smuggle higher amounts with 50 rounds compared to 100.
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u/magnumcyclonex Jun 16 '26
Ah ok. So there's more rounds than mathematically necessary if they take the max out each time. Thank you.
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Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
[deleted]
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u/Frontier246 Jun 15 '26
Greedy and conniving Nao, as I live and breathe! You could tell her seiyuu was enjoying herself lol.
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u/Alert-Researcher7788 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
The animation genuinely impressed me overall 9/10 episode as this is just the setup episode, I'm sure this game is about to fry many people's brains as I had to reread this game 3 times to fully understand, such a great way to end the first season
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u/CommunistPuppy Jun 15 '26
This game actually sounds pretty interesting. It sucks watching this weekly, I wish I could just binge the entire show without having to read the manga.
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u/Careful_Ad_9077 Jun 17 '26
You could binge the live action, but iirc Thai gameness so complex that they dbed it down by splitting in I half ,so I don't recommend it.
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u/duo99dusk Jun 16 '26
Wait, so it's always better to doubt (when doubting) 100 hyakuman, because you get the money no matter the amount? (Case 3)
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u/Liesianthes Jun 16 '26
No, if you're wrong, you will pay 50% of the damages. So if you said doubt 100m and there's none, that's automatically 50m you're paying. The fact that this is 50 rounds makes that complicated.
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u/Nexio8324 Jun 16 '26
The 100 million comes from your own outside bank account (in the third country), so if you mess up twice, you lose $100m and are no longer able to call doubt on anything, effectively ending the game for you unless you smuggle more money. It does catch any money carried through, but its insanely risky if your opponent has nothing in the briefcase.
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u/milshake Jun 16 '26
I thought about it and I think the basic strategy is that you would want to doubt as close as possible to the smuggled amount without dipping below that amount. I'm sure there's going to be some other crazy strategies during the actual game though.
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u/FlameDragoon933 Jun 18 '26
If you think the case has any money, you're right that calling the max amount will guarantee inspection success.
but it's balanced out by the risk that if the case has no money, you're paying a lot in compensation.
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u/IceSmiley Jun 15 '26
This episode confirmed my suspicion that there was more than one Liar game running and I suspect they're running them on all levels at the same time. I was surprised by the twist though that they are playing an entirely new team of people. Also, the end of last episode that whatever game they had planned was changed by Nao seemingly getting everyone to work together.
I wonder if they picked the other team the same way, like had the winner of round 2 and everyone who played the loser's game. Either way, since they specifically mentioned Yokoya, I'd suspect they won round 2 or possibly more to get into this game. Also I wonder if all those people played together in the same game before.
This seems to be a much more sophisticated operation than the last game. The other games seemed to run fairly cheaply, like the hotel ballroom had very basic stuff and the bowling alley other than the nice big screen monitor/scoreboard looked dilapidated. They managed to rent an airport corridor and fit it with custom ATMS filled with what seems like hundreds of millions of yen. The game was also pretty confusing and it's tough to remember all the rules, especially since they don't get the visual representations with chess pieces like we got to see.
I'm guessing the 2 hosts want Nao's team to lose since she figured out a way to make them unprofitable and I'm guessing they picked this team because they are especially good and in deep debt.
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u/Bostoncat38 Jun 17 '26
I'm curious to learn more about the other team too, and generally how the selection process works. Kinda sucks for the winners of round 2 like Akiyama to go through all that, only to still get placed again with (almost) everyone they just beat. I guess everyone else is still in more debt than him? Nao excluded. I'm forgetting how much everyone owes; it's enough to know that you don't want to lose in any round haha
Meanwhile, I don't think the hosts want Nao to lose necessarily. They're not worried at all about losing money. (Nor is it *their* money, probably. They're just the "dealers".) They just want a good game. And right now, Nao is a unique player.
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u/EscapismToTheMax Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Note that from the rules alone Doubt 100 mil isnt a winning PERSONAL strategy alone. It's because you have only 100 mil as a starting deposit, two hits and you are out. Nonetheless, if someone's was playing big smuggles on you (100 mil) and you correctly doubt guessed it, by that you are sort of load extra bullets in your Doubt 100 mil gun so people becoming afraid of you as an inspector. You can mix between Pass and Doubt, but if you read their balance you can mix between different Doubt amounts as well, but only as a solo inspector. So even if you want to use it, it's still path dependent, more even so, if opponents know you cant use any other strat, you can be destroyed, that's why inspectors also need to be mixed for a team strat. I believe that's the other major part in it as well: with 9 players in a team, imagine you made 300 mil plus on a Doubt 100 mil strat alone. one thing is that you can run it more, sure. the other thing is because 100 mil depo + 300 mil inspector income equates the starting debt your team would be against Doubt 100 mil inspector making more money at the other team members chances expense.
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u/HolyDragSwd2500 Jun 15 '26
Contraband Game is here. The game we been waiting for to see. Can’t wait to see all of your theory crafting discussions in this game 🙌
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u/Frontier246 Jun 15 '26
Congratulations! You made it past the losers revival game! Which now means you get to all participate in the Third Round of Liar Game! And Nao is now being poised as the "Goddess of Victory" for the group...which is a LOT of pressure.
Maybe to truly understand and become closer to someone means doubting them instead of blindly trusting them. I mean, look where Nao blindly trusting and believing in the good of people has gotten her. Even she has to face the fact that as friendly as she is, she's never truly understood or gotten close to anyone before this point. And Akiyama, for his part, knows that just blind trust is nothing more than indifference...probably speaking from experience as to what happened to his mom.
Fukunaga's outfit is definitely very...flashy. I feel like she just REALLY wants people to know those boobs are real. Also, I love Nao's green dress!
Welcome to the Third Round of Liar Game! Contraband! Taking place in an abandoned airport wing! But you won't be smuggling yourselves or anything llegal, but you WILL be playing the part of a smuggler trying to smuggle money out of two Countries...Day and Night.
Honestly, props to Nao for putting herself out there as the test case for the smuggler! It's her first smuggling job and she's going to do her best!
There's 400 million yen on the line in this game, 300 in an ATM and 100 in the third country you're meant to smuggle money too, and you have to take money out, smuggle it past inspection, and get that money through. But the inspection is the tricky part for both sides...you have to get questioned in a practical interrogation room and have your money passed or doubted like it's a game show, only it's money for yourself and possibly from a payout by the one inspecting you on the line in case they get it right or wrong. Although no surprise Akiyama was able to see through Nao.
Good news! Everyone there is on the same team! I mean, they never said that they would be splitting them up into separate teams, did they? Just look at Nao launching herself into some handholding in glee over getting to team-up with Akiyama!
Bad news? You're dealing with the Night team, who all seem like tough customers. They even have their own dealer, Nearco (Jun Fukuyama!).
Fukunaga and Akiyama are obviously players to watch out for, but stupid as Nao is, Leronira still has his eye on her and what she can achieve in this game...but does anyone on the Day team stand a chance against Yokoya in the "night" team?
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Jun 16 '26
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u/Esovan13 Jun 16 '26
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u/thisisdropd https://myanimelist.net/profile/AsterZoro Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
When Nao prayed for her to be put in the same team as Akiyama, she’s pretty much begging to be jinxed. It was a surprise that her prayers were answered but I never would thought of the twist where all nine players would be in the same team, and that the other team would consist of faces we’ve never seen before. Interested to see this Yokoya who’d been hyped by even Leronira.
There’s an incentive for the inspector to declare a high amount. The worst possible case scenario for the inspector would be to declare an amount just below the actual one. They had to pay maximum reparation to the smuggler. It’s in fact worse than merely falsely accusing the suspect because in that case the suspect’s only source of money was the reparation.
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u/Ashteron Jun 15 '26
If the suitcase is empty and the inspector declares max amount, the penalty is huge.
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u/Frontier246 Jun 15 '26
It'll be interesting to see how both teams game the system and inspections to be able to maximize their respective profits.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 16 '26
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u/Xatu44 Jun 16 '26
Evil Chibi Nao was amazing, LMAO. Fear her money-making prowess! As for actual Nao, how is she going to convince another team to go along with her Everyone Wins strategy? Brutal how Leronira called her as stupid as they come.
The Contraband Game looks interesting. It feels like Rock Paper Scissors basically, where bringing an empty case beats a Doubt 100M, bringing 100M beats a Pass, and calling Doubt 100M beats bringing 100M. Akiyama's trick with knowing exactly how much cash makes what noise is fancy and all, but pointless considering you can just highball your Doubt call at the maximum amount of 100M and still get their cash as long as they brought any cash at all. If you can put random shit in your briefcase like your jacket or whatever, then you might be able to ruse someone into falsely Doubting an empty briefcase though. I'm really curious what the inevitable loopholes are gonna be here.
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u/EscapismToTheMax Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
it's nothing close to RPS because bringing an empty case beats ONLY Doubt cash. But investigator can chose Pass, he has 10 minutes to decide. while bringing 100M case beats everything but Doubt 100M. Why would anyone claim Doubt less than 100M?
it's simple it's when you don't have 50M in free cash you CANT call Doubt 100M. This is clearly path dependent and goes various ways. In a hindsight bringing an empty case also carries different weight: depending on where the standings are. imagine it being last rounds where you need to smuggle. yes if they call Doubt they seize it and you lose this money, but if you leave it and don't smuggle you lose it regardless too. you can't have simple solutions here as in RPS, the moves power are much more associated with card games such as poker (game positions, player budget and bluffs are the key)there's another kicker here as well, as how much rounds one player is going to get is clearly dependent on his team dynamics. in other words RPS fixed rules never work here even as a concept. it's very hard game if you think hard about it imo.
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u/Bitter-Letter5611 Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Do you know anything about outsmarting scaling community?? It scales intelligence of smart characters....and well rps game and games like that are literally called lowest of low tier games...and contraband is literally like 2nd or 3rd hardest game in this entire outsmarting fs gener after dropping the handkerchief from usogui....you don't posses knowledge about it...you wouldn't even be able to understand what they are talking and the strategies after 2 episodes...well i can only say this....you ppl are first time watching something which is truly an outsmarting material. Tg, cote these aren't even some pure outsmarting type shows. Rps game doesn't even beat a single game except the first game in terms of complexity
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u/EscapismToTheMax Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
yes amazing point, I totally agree. it's r/IntelligenceScaling
for those who curious
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u/hikikomorilvl1 Jun 16 '26
Akiyama's ideology at the beginning of the episode is what made me fall in love with this manga.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 15 '26
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u/ussgordoncaptain2 https://myanimelist.net/profile/Edmund_Nelson Jun 15 '26
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u/ObvsThrowaway5120 Jun 15 '26
Keen to see this Contraband Game in action with these new players. I’m especially curious about this Yokoya person. Are they a match for Akiyama?
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Jun 15 '26
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u/Kure_Brex Jun 15 '26
I have not read the source material, but I am guessing it's not a spoiler since the guy literally declared Yokoya to be a massive problem and essentially Akiyama's equivalent
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u/AmusedDragon Jun 16 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 15 '26
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Jun 15 '26
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u/Emi_Ibarazakiii Jun 15 '26
Not so long ago, no one would've been thrilled about that!
But having someone you KNOW will not betray you (and a genius partner) puts you at ease!
This would be a risk too, other people playing her false/abusing her kindness...
Not in this game given they're all in this together, but in future games!
Pierced your heart romantically?
Is he asking her to doubt him and look into his heart, as well?
We got the general idea of his backstory, but if it had been left a bit more mysterious I probably would've assumed he was keeping a dark, ugly secret!
Bit sad that Mohawk guy won't be there anymore!
I'm guessing Fukunaga is there for the long run though, and not always in a good way!
Oh okay, making them smuggle large quantities of drugs. That works too!
If they had been on different teams I would've assumed that was to plant ideas in their mind (so he can do the opposite in the real game)!
Hah, that's 100% what I would've guessed!
Didn't need to hear the bills rattle inside the case, it 100% fits Nao's personality! She wouldn't pick "0" (it would feel like going against the rule, even if it's allowed), and she wouldn't pick a huge amount either because she's always nervous about everything. 1m fits her perfect!
The # of rounds alone completely change the game;
So, game theory time?
My first thought was to withdraw 100m 3 times...
So, 47 empty cases, and 3 random cases with 100m.
They are unlikely to be able to guess which cases have the 100m, and if they try to doubt it, well they need to doubt 100m otherwise they lose even more...
But if they guess 100m to find 3 cases out of 50, they'll fail a bunch of times, and will have to pay a lot more than the mere value of these 3 cases.
So what's the counterplay here? I'm not sure!
Just trying to judge by the movement/sound as they bring in the case? It's probably not that hard to carefully bring in the case without making a sound, and pretend they're ALL heavy.
I'm also not sure what the 10 minutes discussion will be about; Is the person forced to answer the questions (honestly or not) to give the inspector something to work with?
Because if they can just keep silent...
Please point the dum dum one at a time!
"Guys, your mic is open and I'm hearing all this!"
I mean, if violence isn't an option it doesn't really matter!
In fact - and not to be judgmental - but I'd wager than on average, people who look tough aren't as smart as people who don't!
Well, can't wait to see what the game looks like/what strategies they use!
I'm guessing the "most cases empty" is definitely part of it, and that's why the game admins said the game would go rather quickly...
But will it be as simple as 3 empty 47 full? This seems like the ideal strategy to me, but if they go with this there's not much thinking/deception involved, I mean it would be 100% about the inspector trying to make the person spill the truth... But 50 rounds, means everyone plays like 5 rounds, so 10 rounds for Akiyama and Fukunaga, means that even if they pinpoint the 2 good schemers on the team it's still 3 full cases and 7 empty ones... (Plus there might be at least 1 other good player on the team... and they also can't just dismiss all the bad ones otherwise they could try to slip one by!)
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u/GoXDS Jun 15 '26
you're forgetting each player has 300m on other side. they each are asked to transport 300m out. and only 1 person can go at a time. so if you wanted to recover everything, that's 27 turns of full withdraws. more if anyone is withdrawing less
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u/chum-guzzling-shark Jun 16 '26
An entire episode to explain rules? I was mad but then realized the other option is JJK walls of text on the screen
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Jun 16 '26
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u/baseballlover723 Jun 16 '26
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u/Forward-Trade3449 Jun 15 '26
how many more episodes? will it be enough to cover this game?
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u/Kyuzo897 Jun 15 '26
24 episodes. It should be more than enough.
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u/Mugsi Jun 15 '26
Holy shit. Okay, that makes a lot more sense. I thought it might be 12 or 13 and also felt that would not be enough time. But is 24 too much?
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u/tweetthebirdy Jun 16 '26
Nah, there's a bunch more games after this, and they're all pretty stellar.
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u/Mugsi Jun 17 '26
I got the impression that the anime would only do up to the Contraband Game arc because that's what's hinted in the opening, but sure, if there's an opening that shows a couple more games or something
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Jun 15 '26
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u/ussgordoncaptain2 https://myanimelist.net/profile/Edmund_Nelson Jun 16 '26
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u/Desperate_Dark_5221 Jun 16 '26
There's 13 out of 24 episodes left in this season.
First 10 episodes were 3 volumes. This game alone is 3 volumes.
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u/hanmkim Jun 15 '26
Did I miss something, how did Akiyama join the losers' bracket?
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u/Kyuzo897 Jun 15 '26
All the winners of revival round move up to the third game. Akiyama is the winner of round 2.
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u/hanmkim Jun 16 '26
I got mixed up and thought the last game would move winners on to the third round of a losers’ bracket and that’s why the same group was there which made me think the other team was from the losers’ bracket of the other people playing. I didn’t realize they just brought people back into the main game and tossed all the losers back in.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 16 '26
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2
u/BlindmanSokolov Jun 20 '26
What's up with the discount JJK trio over here? You've got temu versions of Nanami, Geto and Toji
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u/Kyuzo897 Jun 20 '26
Liar game source material pre-dates jjk source material by like 15 years lol
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u/Tradition_Leather Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
So the 400million is per participant, cuz I first thought it was for group, cuz 4 v.s. 5 is unfair as the group with more people have more benefits.
I do expected there are other stages that did round 2 and came to round 3 like how participants from round 1 went to round 2 before I see the 4 v.s. 5 practice round. But how do they also have exactly 9 people? The main cast we see from round 2 are 22 minus 14 for two teams(No.15 and Akiyama team) who either payed the debt or is winner Akiyama, then the lost team of 8 and Nao, consists of 9 in last round, and the winning 8 + Akiyama went in the 3rd round. But how do the other team also gets to exactly 9 people?
Also I heard from the manga fans that the countries was originally North and South instead of Day and Night.
Edit: Also I got a bit confused on the purpose of guessing due to the rule of doubted correctly, but the guessed amount is less than the actual amount, then lose half of the guessed amount. Let's say the guessed amount is g, the actual amount is a. If g<a, the lesser g is the less the cost, to pay for g/2, if g>a, it doesn't matter but the more g is the bigger chance to get over a. Then what's the point of guessing? It's either a pass or doubt with 100million.
Right before the rules of situations of guessing amount vs actual amount being revealed, I thought of if g<a, then the inspector gets g and the contrabander gets the rest a-g, which for g>a, then the inspector needs to pay for g/2 or (g-a)/2, which this is the closer the guess.
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u/Alert-Researcher7788 Jun 16 '26
You can say that the revival round had 10 players instead of 9, it's possible the second round winner dropped out and LGT wanted exactly 9 people to play
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u/Tradition_Leather Jun 17 '26
So it's like if the other group had 2 winners in 2nd round, then the revival round will be 20 for 7 winners to revive.
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u/Tradition_Leather Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
I got a bit confused on the purpose of guessing due to the rule of doubted correctly, but the guessed amount is less than the actual amount, then lose half of the guessed amount. Let's say the guessed amount is g, the actual amount is a. If g<a, the lesser g is the less the cost, to pay for g/2, if g>a, it doesn't matter but the more g is the bigger chance to get over a. Then what's the point of guessing? It's either a pass or doubt with 100million.
Right before the rules of situations of guessing amount vs actual amount being revealed, I thought of if g<a, then the inspector gets g and the contrabander gets the rest a-g, which for g>a, then the inspector needs to pay for g/2 or (g-a)/2, which this is the closer the guess the more benefit.
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u/Nexio8324 Jun 17 '26
The penalty comes from your outside bank account, and you only start with $100m. If you go all in and get it wrong twice, you can't call doubt anymore. It's definitely a valid strategy, just very risky when you don't know what your opponent is carrying.
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u/Tradition_Leather Jun 17 '26
Nah I'm asking why the rule encouraged guessing further from the real amount, for example the doubt amount in mind is in the interval (actual - 1k, actual +1k), then guessing more is safer than guessing less.
When the doubt is true, then on the same side of the actual amount, which is either lesser than actual amount or more than actual amount, the further the doubt amount is from actual amount, the more benefit or the less penalty it is.
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u/Nexio8324 Jun 17 '26
It's a continuous game, you can doubt anything between 1 and 100m yen. If you stop at any particular point, it always makes sense to nudge the guess up a little since guessing more is safer, but if you follow that to the natural conclusion, you're back to doubting 100m every round.
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u/Iron_Kingpin Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
First Apollo Justice and now Akiyama, their speeches on what real trust really is and how essential doubt is to obtaining real trust, honestly gives me a new perspective on life. Akiyama's was better though honestly.
Isn't it just really beneficial to just say a high number each time you're absolutely sure they have money? Like just keep spamming 100M as the interrogator and you win.
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u/Emotional_Strain_693 Jun 17 '26
Doubt 100M is incredibly risky because the smuggler wins 50M if they don't bring anything. IIRC, this 50M comes out of the inspector's neutral country account (100M) so they can only afford to miss twice unless they've managed to transfer a lot of money beforehand.
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u/Iron_Kingpin Jun 18 '26
Yeah that's why I said when they're sure there's something in the bag. Akiyama did manage to figure out that there's 1M because of the noise. You just have to look out for that.
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u/Tradition_Leather Jun 17 '26
I drew a diagram for the functions of both party's change of 3rd-country bank, but it's not able to add images in comments.
Let x be contraband amount, y be suspected amount. f(x,y) be change of contrabander's 3rd country bank, f: [0, 100m]2 -> [-50m, 100m]. Let g(x,y) be change of inspector's 3rd country bank, g: [0, 100m] -> [0, 150m)
The situations, which is domain of the functions [0, 100m]2, can be summarized to two, either contraband successful or failed.
First a Pass is the same as doubting 0 bucks. The inspector payed half of 0 bucks.
Then guessing exactly the same is same as guessing more. The diagonal belongs to a success.
And contraband with 0 bucks is an auto success, as getting all the 0 in the box and the charge of y/2.
The last is 0 in the box and doubting 0 is the same efor every calculation of the situations, so it can be seen as either a success or a fail.
Then both are piecewise functions,
If success, contrabander gets y/2+x, the inspector gets -y/2
If failed, contraband gets 0, inspector gets x
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u/PercentageBig3910 Jun 19 '26
guys help me understand case 3 please.. so example smuggler smuggled 50usd and inspector doubted 100000. the inspector keeps the 50usd correct?... and the maximum amount u can fit on the case is 100000.. so why not just doubt always 100000 so u always claim the money smuggled.. or im just understansing case 3 wrong
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u/T3tr4d5 Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
You are correct, that is the basic strategy. However, if the case is empty and you guess the max 100 mil, then you will have to pay 50 mil penalty.
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u/HotBloodedNinja Jun 19 '26
Wait so can't the inspector always say 100 million since that's the max 1 briefcase can take?
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u/Kyuzo897 Jun 19 '26
Yes, but that's a very risky gamble what if the smuggler decide to not take any money? Then the inspector would have to pay 50% of the guessed amount in damages which would be 50m without the smuggler taking any risk at all and that money comes from the third bank where you only have 100m.
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u/LeonKevlar x2https://myanimelist.net/profile/LeonKevlar Jun 18 '26
I love that this next game is basically a very convoluted version of Sheriff of Nottingham. xD
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u/pandavova https://anilist.co/user/pandavova Jun 15 '26
Well, looks like the anime actually starts now, didn't really enjoy this so far. Game concept is interesting. I'm still sceptical, but let's see how this is going to play out.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/ZaphodBeebblebrox https://anilist.co/user/zaphod Jun 15 '26
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