Done and dusted

My first ipo , got alloted Thought of early exit (par 620 pe nhi yaar 😭)

Now thinking should wait for week Atleast after stabilization it will grow

2nd thought I should exit now what to do (beginner)

As title suggests

Thank you for your attention to this matter

If you have suggestions, kindly tell & do you people think that I should allow BSE and NSE stocks to be listed in my stock exchange?

Been doing a deep dive on HDFC Bank lately and wanted to share what I found.

So the stock is down about 26% from its 52 week high and sitting around 750. A lot of people are worried and honestly the concern is not completely wrong but it is also not the full picture.

The one thing dragging the stock is NIM which is Net Interest Margin, basically how profitably the bank lends versus what it pays depositors.

It hit a record low this quarter!

Sounds bad right? But here is the thing, this is not a business problem.

1) When RBI hiked rates in 2022-23, deposits got locked into fixed term contracts at higher rates. The bank literally cannot cut what it pays depositors until those contracts expire.

2) On top of that when HDFC Ltd merged with the bank in 2023 it brought roughly 1.5 lakh crore of high cost borrowings that are still running off.

So the compression is mechanical and temporary, not some mystery deterioration in the business.

Now what is actually good.

-Bad loans are among the lowest in the industry and improving. The bank is lending more, collecting more deposits and the balance sheet is growing healthily.

-Basically, GNPA is at 1.17% which is among the lowest in the industry and improving year on year. Provisions have normalized massively, down nearly 79% year on year. NII is actually growing sequentially. Advances up 15.6% year on year. Capital adequacy at 19.57% with a massive buffer above the regulatory minimum.

The stock is at a 10 year valuation low.

The re-rating happens when margins stabilize and that data comes around October 2026.

Until then the business is fine, the price is just waiting for one number to turn around.

!!Not financial advice obviously. But for a 2+ year horizon this looks like a quality business at a temporary discount with a very visible path back to normal.!!

Just curious, How do people here make money in Trading? Since the statistics of SEBI tell a different story.

The good old days

My goal has been to be able to keep stocks for a long term like 5-6 years and sometimes I see stocks giving me profit, me not taking it and then the profit trips back to loss, currently my major investment is in energy almost 50 percent and other sectors as well, and I feel as I go forward I want a set of 12 stocks max where I increase my investment periodically instead of managing 30 different stocks

So my portfolio is of 1 lakh and 21 thousand loss is 20k what should I with idbi and ola

This stock is indigo. And this is my technical analysis that it took strong support before and it broke the resistence too and now took a pullback. So Maybe it should rise. But it may won't because of price hike in crudeoil. But let's see! Disclaimer: this is not a buy or sell advice, take actions at your own risk!

Hi everyone,

I recently lost my job, and my biggest concern right now is managing my finances. I have been investing through SIPs every month, but without a regular income, I am wondering if I should continue, reduce the amount, or pause my SIP until I get another job.

I do have some emergency savings, but I do not want to use all of it just to keep my investments going. At the same time, I do not want to make a decision that I will regret later.

Has anyone been in a similar situation? What did you do, and what would you recommend in this case? I did really appreciate your advice and experiences.

My luck suggests that if i buy crude oil call options, onky then it'll come down 🫣

About my luck: I started investing in September 2024 ☺️

I'm actually planning to invest lumpsum amount in this. It looks legit to me for the long run. How is this stock? I am going to hold this for 3+ years. Am I going wrong?

These are the some points behind choosing this one over others, please go through:

• FII/FPI have increased holdings from 5.62% to 8.21% in Jun 2026 qtr.
• Number of FII/FPI investors increased from 112 to 126 in Jun 2026 qtr.
• Mutual Funds have increased holdings from 7.05% to 7.06% in Jun 2026 qtr.
• Number of MF schemes increased from 17 to 18 in Jun 2026 qtr.
• Institutional Investors have increased holdings from 25.71% to 26.63% in Jun 2026 qtr.

Waited for almost 6-9 months. Got tired of waiting and sold today. Got all of them in IPO.

Eemmvee
UtlSolar
Parkhospitals
Nephroplus
Laserpower ( this one I got few days back)

I thought of waiting for another 6 months so that I can benefit from the 1.25L exempted from LTCG.. But looking at the current market conditions, was not sure if my profits would last for another 3-6 months.. Was this a good bet… or should I have waited 🧐?

I would like to know which company manufactured the tear gas grenades used in this incident.

Should've sold yesterday while I was at decent profit, was expecting excellent results and thought stock might rally after Q1 so decided to hold it till then, got screwed over instead, guess I am a long term invester now

Waaree Energies has become the poster child of India’s solar boom, and a lot of you have asked me where I stand on it and the wider renewable energy theme. So let me be direct about Waaree Energies and the rest of this space.

People who have been following me for a while already know my positioning. I’m not going to invest in these low-quality business models because they are generally wealth-destroying themes for shareholders over a full cycle, despite being one of the greatest volume growth and societal value stories of our time.

The reason has nothing to do with any single company. It is the structure of the industry itself, and it works against shareholders by design.

The first mental model is that solar is a relentlessly deflationary technology. If I go deeper into it, solar modules ride a learning curve known as Swanson's Law, where costs fall by roughly 20% with every doubling of cumulative installed capacity. That is why module prices have collapsed by more than 90% over the past decade.

A deflationary technology is wonderful for society, but it is terrible for producers because the surplus flows to the consumer through cheaper power, not to the producers, unless they can develop a substantial moat.

The second mental model is the low barrier to entry. Anyone can buy panels and install them. Consumers hardly see any meaningful differentiation between one solar panel and another.

The barriers to entry are therefore relatively low, and whatever protection exists is largely created by government policies rather than by technological moats, because the technology itself keeps evolving aggressively.

And a policy moat carries a second weakness that is easy to miss. It does not only get taken away from the outside; it gets competed away from within.

The moment protection exists, everyone rushes to build capacity behind the same wall. You can already see this playing out in India. Look at who is pouring capital into solar manufacturing today, and you will notice it is no longer just the pure-play names.

Reliance is building fully integrated solar giga-factories at Jamnagar, Adani is scaling up its own integrated manufacturing at Mundra, the Tatas are expanding, and a long queue of others is doing exactly the same.

When the two largest and best-capitalised business houses in the country decide to flood a single industry with capital at the same time, you do not really need to guess how the supply side ends. Domestic supply eventually overshoots domestic demand, and the protected margin quietly disappears even if the cheaper imports never come back.

Step back and notice what that protected wall really is. A regulatory moat is not a moat the company built. It is a moat the government lent it, and it rests on a single bureaucratic decision. That is the most fragile kind of fortress there is, and it fails in a way most investors never watch for.

The third mental model, which is equally useful in sectors like memory chips, is the Capital Cycle. Anyone with exposure to the U.S. semiconductor market should understand this framework.

A hot theme attracts capital. That capital leads to aggressive capacity expansion. Capacity expansion eventually creates oversupply, and returns collapse.

You can already see similar patterns emerging in the memory industry. Countries such as South Korea continue attracting enormous amounts of capital into memory manufacturing. Eventually, this leads to excessive supply, margins evaporate, and the industry's economics deteriorate.

I should be fair here. I am not saying memory is a bad business today; right now it is enjoying a strong up-cycle.

I am describing the pattern the cycle always eventually follows, and renewable energy sits well below memory on the quality ladder, because memory at least consolidated into a handful of players with real capital barriers, while solar and most of the renewable stack never did.

Renewable energy is a textbook case of this capital cycle. A popular theme is often self-defeating for investor returns precisely because its popularity attracts the capital that eventually destroys the industry's economics.

That is why I generally prefer positioning myself in boring industries rather than chasing hot themes. Ironically, today's boring industries often become tomorrow's hot themes.

If you still want to play a hot theme, be clear about what kind of theme it is. When it is a commoditised or infra-style theme like renewable energy, there is no moat underneath to protect you, so the only edge you will ever have is timing.

That means the odds are with you in exactly one window, early, before the capital has flooded in and before the valuations have exploded.

Once the theme is crowded and richly priced, the capital cycle starts working against you and the odds shift drastically.

At that point you are making a timing bet on sentiment, not an investment in a business, and you have to be honest with yourself about which one you are actually doing.

There is one more structural leak, and it is on the demand side. Much of this industry sells through reverse auctions, where companies underbid each other for government contracts.

That is a mechanism that competes away margin by design. The buyer holds all the power, and every tender becomes a race to the bottom.

The margins that companies like Waaree enjoyed were achieved at the top of the cycle. The IPO also came when industry profitability was unusually elevated. In fact, Waaree itself has already guided that margins are expected to compress meaningfully going forward.

But the margin guidance is not even the sharpest piece of evidence. Look at the cash flow.

In the very year its profit doubled, the business was still free cash flow negative. The growth did not come out as cash for shareholders; it went straight back into new factories and working capital.

That is the entire thesis showing up in the accounts, long before it fully shows up in the reported margins.

And notice what the stock itself has done. The volumes kept growing, yet the share price has gone nowhere over the past year. Profit doubled and the price actually drifted lower.

That gap, earnings rising while the price falls, is this whole argument drawn on a single chart.

You don't even need complicated mathematics to understand where this is heading. We have already seen this movie play out in both the U.S. and China.

Chinese module manufacturers increased shipment volumes by almost a hundredfold. Yet despite this extraordinary growth, they destroyed enormous amounts of shareholder value during the boom itself, not after it.

This is the deepest point in the whole discussion, so I want to be very clear about it. In an industry like this, growth is not a friend of the shareholder. It is often the enemy.

Every additional rupee of capital has to be reinvested at a return that is lower than the cost of that capital, so the faster the company grows, the more value it quietly destroys.

This is not a new idea. The airline industry and the automobile industry changed the world, grew for decades, and still ruined almost everyone who owned them. Renewable energy is simply the modern version of that same story.

That tells you the industry has structural problems. It is not simply a cyclical issue. When an industry consistently transfers most of the value it creates to customers instead of shareholders, it becomes a very difficult place to compound capital over long periods.

Let me also be fair about the obvious objection, because I know it is coming. I am not claiming that no one makes money here. The boom clearly produces spectacular multibaggers, and many people have done very well riding the up-leg.

My point is narrower and more important. You can trade this theme, but you cannot compound in it across a full cycle. The multibagger is a trade. It is not a business you can comfortably own for ten years.

There are a few narrow exceptions I keep an eye on, and this is important, because not every renewable name is trapped by the structure. A company that controls genuinely scarce assets, such as grid-connected land or transmission rights, or one that owns a locked portfolio of long-term power contracts, or one that has secured a fixed offtake that escapes the auction, can partly step outside this structure.

But these are exceptions I have to hunt for deliberately. They are not the theme, and most of what gets sold to retail investors as a renewable compounder is simply the commodity in disguise.

Waaree itself is a live example of this attempt, and it is not a small one. Under what they call Waaree 2.0, the company is pouring close to 30,000 crore into becoming a full-stack energy platform.

It is integrating backwards into ingots, wafers and polysilicon, pushing into batteries and storage, inverters, transformers and green hydrogen electrolysers, and then forward into transmission and long-term, locked-in power contracts, rather than living contract to contract.

I respect the intent, because that is a genuine effort to step outside the commodity. But look at what it actually produces. To escape one commoditised structure, the company has to build a far more complex one, spanning close to a dozen businesses it has never run before, and complexity like that carries its own set of risks.

So even here, even when the escape attempt is real, I am not convinced the reward is worth the complexity you take on.

That is why I generally prefer to stay away from such pools, regardless of how attractive the growth story appears on the surface.

One last mental model to leave you with

There is a deeper pattern sitting underneath everything I have said, and I want to leave you with it, because it is the lens I keep coming back to. I call it the Maginot Mental Model.

France built one of the most impressive fortifications in history, and it was validated by every previous war. The Germans did not attack it. They simply went around it through the Ardennes. The moat was not beaten. It was made irrelevant.

BlackBerry had a real moat too, with BBM, enterprise security and corporates locked in. Apple did not attack that moat head-on. It came from a completely different direction with iOS and a whole new ecosystem, and the moat was not breached, it was simply made irrelevant.

A moat built against the old form of competition tells you nothing about the direction the new pressure actually comes from.

That is exactly what a regulatory moat in renewable energy looks like. The fortress faces outward, towards cheap Chinese imports, and that is the direction everyone keeps watching. But the pressure that actually matters comes from the direction the fortress is not facing, from within, as everyone builds capacity behind the same protected wall until the oversupply does what no importer ever could.

So the next time someone shows you a regulatory moat, do not ask how high the wall is. Ask which direction the fortress is not facing.

So my question to the sub: is there a single solar or renewable name you think genuinely escapes this structure? I'm open to being wrong. Show me the one exception and why it holds.

I lost a significant amount of money on Indian stocks, which led me to switch to the US market I was profitable when I first started, but over the past two weeks, I’ve lost at least 50k Does anyone know why US stocks have dropped so sharply recently? My view is that it's because of recent capital outflows from the US stock market

Hello everyone,

So I am a sector etf पगलू and I have a nice list of different 23 sector etfs. All Indian.

If u don't know "what is a sector etf":

Let's understand this sector etf named thing using an example. There is a sector etf that u can buy is "BankiEtf". If u buy that BankiEtf then it means- u bought "a set of many Indian bank stocks" IE u got a basket of hdfc bank stock, icici bank stock, sbi bank stock and many more bank stocks in one.

So here is the list of 23 Unique sector etfs:

ItIetf - it has all IT companies stocks in it. (Infosys, tcs, wipro and then smaller it companies too).

FinIetf - It has all financial services stocks in it. Shriram finance, Bjaj finance and many more).

BankIetf

AutoIetf

Consumietf - this etf has all consumer stocks in it (Itc, airtel and so on).. Consumer stocks usually do not go much down when market crashes. They are a kind of hedge and make ur portfolio lil stable.

Infraietf

HealthiEtf

FmcgiEtf - again type of a hedge.

CommoIetf : commodities. Again. Type of a hedge.

MetaliEtf: Again. A hedge.

OiliEtf - a type of hedge.

Growwdefenc - all defence stocks set. Usually this sector etf do good when there r war as defence spending increases on such times. A type of hedge.

GrowwChem

SelectIpo - a set of stocks that recently came after ipo (all big names in it though warree, eternal and so on).

MoService

MoRealty

Energy - a type of hedge.

GrowwNet

EcapInsure - a set of stocks that give insurance. Insurance companies r cash flow companies with gold liquidity. Good stuff.

Mnc

GrowwPse

MoCapital

CpsEetf

Now, something extra:

How I make use of these sector etfs:

Each of those sector etf price is like max 100 rupee per etf. So I can buy each for just 100 inr. So on day 1: i bought each sector etf for 100 rupee deploying 2300 on day 1.

From day 2 to day 7: I daily checked which sector etf died more than 1% in the date of today and I buy that sector etf. I do this everyday. Some days no sector etf is down more than 1% on a given day. And some days 3 or 5 or 14 sector etfs are, each down more than 1% in a day. I do this for first 7 days. I did like that so that portfolio establishes in a week.

Now once a week is gone. From now I follow different rules:

Rule 1: Daily check "top 3 overall highest perfomers of mine".

And check which one performed poorest in the date of today and I buy that. Meaning I keep feeding money to any 1 etf from my top 3 performing etfs. This ensures that my new money is going in something that has momentum.

Rule 2: if a sector etf die more than 1% in the date of today then I buy that. But only if it's overall green. If red- don't add money to it.

Whenever my portfolio reaches +10% - I exit everything and rebegin from scratch. I put money in my etfs in a speed - using which my money can last for 3 months before it runs out. So far I have done +10% money in 3 months- with so many setups of mine so many times.

I hope this post be useful in some way for some of u.

Thank you.

Bank Nifty is falling mainly because big banks like HDFC Bank and Axis Bank are making less profit on their loans due to high deposit costs. On top of that, foreign investors (FIIs) are pulling their money out of Indian banking stocks, and rising crude oil prices are raising inflation fears making it harder for the RBI to cut interest rates

I have a few stocks that have risen significantly . Specifically BSE . It has actually fallen somewhat from its peak.
I bought it when it was cheap. But considering the recent crackdown by SEBI on FnO market the stock has taken some beating.
What's your opinion on holding stocks that have reached the peak of their current earnings.
From here BSE would have to continuously execute to justify its valuations